WI-SEN (Marquette): Barnes +2 / close races

[UncleSam]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

He’s a two-term incumbent who outran the top of the ticket by 3-4 points the last time he was on the ballot (against a former senator, no less). He also has consistent trailed in polling before only to win comfortably.

Color me a bit skeptical if I don’t take polls showing him in a statistical tie as very good indicators for the Dems here. Maybe this cycle will buck the trend of polls underestimating Rs in WI, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

[UncleSam]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

He’s a two-term incumbent who outran the top of the ticket by 3-4 points the last time he was on the ballot (against a former senator, no less). He also has consistent trailed in polling before only to win comfortably.

Color me a bit skeptical if I don’t take polls showing him in a statistical tie as very good indicators for the Dems here. Maybe this cycle will buck the trend of polls underestimating Rs in WI, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Ron Johnson of 2022 is not the same Ron Johnson of 2016. And we are in an even more polarized environment than 6 years ago. I get your points, but some just don't apply in the same way anymore.

I guess what I’m saying is that I find it hard to believe he is less popular than Donald Trump, and in this political environment there’s no doubt Trump would be a strong favorite. Maybe in the last six years opinions on Johnson have really changed for the worse, but I seem to recall a bunch of terrible approval polls in 2016 for Johnson as well that ended up being a whole lot of smoke with no fire.

I’m not saying the race won’t be closer than the national swing might indicate, as polarization will definitely help bring down the final margin regardless of the winner. But I find it hard to believe that Barnes will actually win this race (or, honestly, be particularly close) come November.

[UncleSam]

But what about the red wave....

This race was always going to be close. Wisconsin is the ultimate purple state and Johnson really is a flawed incumbent. Belongs up there with Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in likelihood to flip.

It really feels like people are not ready to have the conversation that Johnson is one of the worst candidates for the GOP in a swing state in the entire country.

He’s a two-term incumbent who outran the top of the ticket by 3-4 points the last time he was on the ballot (against a former senator, no less). He also has consistent trailed in polling before only to win comfortably.

Color me a bit skeptical if I don’t take polls showing him in a statistical tie as very good indicators for the Dems here. Maybe this cycle will buck the trend of polls underestimating Rs in WI, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Ron Johnson of 2022 is not the same Ron Johnson of 2016. And we are in an even more polarized environment than 6 years ago. I get your points, but some just don't apply in the same way anymore.

Yeah this is what I keep saying. Johnson was a strong conservative in 2016 but he wasn't saying the outrageously crazy things he is today

Can you elaborate? I don’t think I’ve ever heard anybody say a single nice thing about Ron Johnson in either 2016 or 2022, and I am unfamiliar with what has really changed with him as a candidate between the two years.

[UncleSam]

Obligatory -

Exactly what I expected.

Vance is going to underperform Trump by 5 in a year where polling is 9 points more favorable to R's compared to 2020. Here's some other things that "high quality" polls will likely show:

 - Barnes/Lasry will lead Johnson in WI
 - Fetterman will lead Oz in PA
 - Kelly will lead R's in AZ
 - R's will continue to hold miniscule 1-2 point lead in generic ballot

By election time, many people will be convinced the Democrats are favorites to hold the Senate and R's will get no more than 230 House seats. And the narrative will be because R's are "too extreme" while Dems all have good moderate candidates.

There's a middle ground here. No one is saying that Barnes is the favorite or Johnson can't win.

But again, the GOP candidates ARE far-right and ARE more extreme than they should be for their states, so that should be worth nothing, and IS important.

Disagree tbh. Oz is definitely not ‘far right’, and honestly Johnson is basically the median R senator. Whoever comes out of the AZ primary is very likely to be a true nut job and Mastriano is straight up insane, but most of the other ‘weak’ R senate or Governor candidates are really not weak at all as far as I can tell. Maybe Walker is but that’s because he can’t formulate a sentence, not because anybody is going to care how many children he has come November.

This board loves to paint practically any R candidate in a swing state as a hard-right neonazi with extremist views, while their Dem counterparts are either moderate heros (like Kelly) or progressive lions with ‘strong grassroots appeal’ (like Fetterman).

Now I do think that Dems probably have better candidates on average across the swing state races than Rs do. However, the gal isn’t nearly as large as most on here want to portray, and I really don’t think some here understand that if the environment swings where most trend lines / indicators point (I.e. R+5-7), then Dems aren’t going to be able to hold many / any of these swing state seats. Candidate quality just isn’t going to matter in that case.

If Rs win the national vote by 5, they win PA and WI, the latter potentially by double digits. For reference, in 2021, they won it by 9.