Nate Silver believes Democrats will not suffer from low turnout in the 2022 midterms

[UncleSam]

Love the Nate Silver atlas-level analysis.

The fact that Ds are consistently gaining among college educated voters means that there’s a chance this is true, at least to an extent. I think a 2014-esque win for Rs is unlikely. However, I’m also not seeing much in the way of statistical evidence that low propensity D voters will show up. Coalition changes have helped Ds in this regard but low propensity voters still make up a bigger portion of their base.

[UncleSam]

Love the Nate Silver atlas-level analysis.

The fact that Ds are consistently gaining among college educated voters means that there’s a chance this is true, at least to an extent. I think a 2014-esque win for Rs is unlikely. However, I’m also not seeing much in the way of statistical evidence that low propensity D voters will show up. Coalition changes have helped Ds in this regard but low propensity voters still make up a bigger portion of their base.

Some atlas threads from 2009:


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=94194.0

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=95338.0;viewResults


Some atlas threads from 2005:


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=21417.0

To be fair to the Toomey one, at that point in time he was a decided underdog. He needed Specter to swap parties and lose a primary in order to win by 2 points. Ofc those saying he had <10% chance were hacks, but those saying he had some but only a small chance were pretty reasonable IMO.

Obviously in hindsight the AR one is laughable but at the time AR had a history of voting for Ds down ballot.