2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[UncleSam]

Trump is going to win TX / NC / FL / OH / IA and all the polling indicating otherwise was based on invalid assumptions about voter turnout or poor sampling / weighting methodologies by demographics.

AZ is the only true toss up but I expect Biden to carry it by 1-2 in the end. He will win the upper Midwest by more than that and win with 289-291 electoral votes, depending on ME2 and NE2

I’ve decided that I’m not going to be changing my prediction based on early votes since those often are misleading, and nothing I’ve seen so far deviates from what I’ve expected to happen for months now. So locking it in and we will see how it goes

[UncleSam]

I know I said I would not post, but I am just really curious as to how anyone can believe in Blue Texas with this new data?

Because Dems lost by 3 with similar numbers two years ago and there's some reason to believe that prior GE voters could potentially tilt D more than they did two years ago?

I don't think TX is going blue this year (I think Trump wins by 3 and Cornyn by like 6-7) but it is absolutely not out of the question that Biden could pull out a narrow win. Dems will probably be favorites in TX in like 4 years or so.

[UncleSam]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321135704190177282?s=21
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321135725060988928?s=21

So let's assume (HUGE assumption) that Rs gain ~40-50k per day through the rest of the week. That would mean Ds still end up with roughly a 50-100k vote lead in registration, right?

In 2016 Ds had a ~50k deficit but won the EV by ~250k. So if they're at a 50-100k lead, they'd probably be ahead by more like 400-500k in actual votes heading into ED voting, right?

That doesn't seem bad for Ds, but also it's worth pointing out that indications are ED voting will be more R-skewed than in prior years due to more Ds voting early / by mail than in most years compared to Rs. So whereas Trump won ED voting by ~375k in 2016, he will probably win it by more this year.

Overall Florida seems very toss-up / tilt Rish based on these numbers, which kind of just confirms most prior assumptions. It'll probably be 2012-close either way, and in a similar vein it probably will not impact the final outcome of the election.

[UncleSam]

There's no reason to believe that Election Day will be even more R though, when many of those Rs could easily be voting now in Early Voting, especially with turnout going over 2016's EV.

Not to mention, NPAs broke Trumps way in 2016, but if they break Biden's way this year, which it appears they are based on most polls, that changes everything.

Um...every single poll we've seen indicates Trump is winning the ED vote by a lot, certainly more than he did in 2016. This goes across pretty much all states surveyed. It also makes sense given that Ds disproportionately requested mail-in ballots compared to Rs and Ds generally have a much more favorable view of early / mail-in voting than Rs do.

The NPAs point is confusing to me. Hillary won by more actual votes than the registration gap would've indicated (-50k vs 250k actual lead), so clearly NPAs broke her way in 2016. Are you saying they are likely to break more towards Biden this year? That certainly seems possible, but what then would be your estimate for actual vote lead for Biden going into ED if Dems have a 100k registration advantage vs. a 2016 50k registration disadvantage? I cited 400-500k actual vote lead, but I suppose it could be more if Biden is winning by enough among NPAs and is winning some Rs.