UncleSam
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,524
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« on: June 03, 2017, 12:54:44 PM » |
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Lol@Anyone who thinks any Red state dem is safe in 2018 (including Stabenow). Polarization is being taken to levels not seen even as recently as 2012 (the last time these senators were elected), and the national Democratic brand is as toxic in these states as Trump is in blue states. Barring a Trump impeachment I think any senate race in Montana has to be considered at least lean R, just like any senate race in Nevada has to be considered lean D.
The problem for Democrats is that although polarization will help them pick up a few seats in the house (VA10, FL26, etc), it is not going to result in a majority due to the rampant GOP gerrymanders across most large swing states. Additionally, the shift left has hurt red state Democrats immensely, and I be very surprised if even a single Romney state Democrat survives to see 2019. Of course Heller is also heading for an epic beat down at the hands of literally any of the potential challengers, but the senate map is stacked against Democrats in such a way that polarization wi undeniably hurt them worse than it will Republicans.
Dems need to focus on state house level stuff first and foremost - they need control over redistricting anywhere they can get it. Governors races also tend to be more localized and so I much more bullish on dem chances at making significant gains in that department. But I suspect that many Democrats will be heavily disappointed to downright despondent when once again they get swept away in red states where they insist they will make massive inroads while ever shifting left as a party.
Predictions:
Senate: R+7
House: D+16
Governor: D+6
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