MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[UncleSam]

Hawley would be Lean R and that's my vote. I doubt she will survive but it's so far out it would be crazy to count her out.

[UncleSam]

I think that Kander wouldn't do as well at this point, honestly. His national tours and promotional events would make for devastating attack ads for the Missouri GOP, whereas last year Kander looked way more middle-of-the-road and nonpartisan in his fantastic campaign against Blunt. I doubt he could replicate anything near his performance among Conservatives or leaners next year, however. McCaskill will rally a strong ~45% of the electorate around her and, if she can convince just a few right-leaners in rural areas that Hawley isn't as clean-cut as he sells himself, I could see her holding her seat. It's not a good shot either way, but Kander is not an upgrade and might be a significant downgrade at this point.

[UncleSam]

Very unlikely she gets in IMO but even if she does oh able a hard time seeing her winning

[UncleSam]

Lol Hawley and MccasKILL (can this be her new nick name pls) are both ruthless politicians, this is going to be the hands down ugliest senate race this year. Still think Hawley is going to win only because Missouri is too Red at this point for a senator of Mccaskills' voting record. But she's definitely not dead or anywhere close to it.

[UncleSam]

Ya I think Hawley basically turned a potential negative into a nothingburger by going after Greitens. It obviously won’t help him though since Greitens will damage the GOP in Missouri either way.

[UncleSam]

Helps the GOP only insofar as it stops actively hurting them. It’ll be interesting to see how much damage has been done, though.

A shift from hurting them to not hurting them would typically be defined as a shift that helps the GOP

We will see how big of an impact this has in November. It’ll almost certainly flip that special election though.

[UncleSam]

Crooked MO GOP:

Missouri governor offered to resign if charges dropped

Good campaign material there

I don’t get it...how is it good campaign material? He offered to resign to the special prosecutor, who is a Democrat. It’s not like the MO GOP is trying to get the charges against him dropped in exchange for his resignation. Can you explain this a bit more.

[UncleSam]

Crooked MO GOP:

Missouri governor offered to resign if charges dropped

Good campaign material there

I don’t get it...how is it good campaign material? He offered to resign to the special prosecutor, who is a Democrat. It’s not like the MO GOP is trying to get the charges against him dropped in exchange for his resignation. Can you explain this a bit more.

As if facts mean anything in American politics. Hillary was cleared in Bengazi and the email nonsense but it didn't stop Republicans from running with it to beat her. The Dems should do the same here.

The obvious difference being that in one case she did something and was cleared of wrongdoing, while in the other no one did anything...you can run on something someone did and lie about the culpability of that thing, you can’t run on something someone didn’t do because it is obviously provably false and it backfires.

Still Greitens has hurt the GOP quite a bit, and reminding people of him every day until November is doubtless a good strategy.

[UncleSam]

I mean this is one of his strongest lines of attack, not surprising at all.