Will Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania all vote the same way?

[Tekken_Guy]

I think yes. Wisconsin might be a wild card since it is the first “fair” state legislative elections this year since 2010. That could make Wisconsin a bit more D-leaning.

I think Wisconsin is more likely to be the sole Trump state of the pack than the sole Biden state.

[Tekken_Guy]

Unless the election is a landslide for either candidate, than no - they are statistically unlikely to vote the same way, all of them being swing states.

Well usually swing states generally all go the same way in most elections.

[Tekken_Guy]

Unless the election is a landslide for either candidate, than no - they are statistically unlikely to vote the same way, all of them being swing states.

I don't think that's true because they aren't independent from each other. Whatever factors make Pennsylvania flip or not flip will likely apply to Wisconsin and Michigan too.

One wildcard might be the Muslims in Michigan, but even then we're talking 2% in Michigan vs. 1% in the other two.

If we’re going by the electorate it’s more 1% to 0.5% of the electorates since Muslims turn out at lower rates.