All of these won by less than 53% and their re-election races seem to favor them as of right now:
Juan Ciscomani (R - AZ 6)
Frank Mvran (D - IN 1)
Zach Nunn (R - IA 3)
John James (R - MI 10)
Angie Craig (D - MN 2)
Greg Landsman (D - OH 1)
Val Hoyle (D - OR 4)
I would not be surprised if we saw a 218-217 Congress, either way. I don't know if that's ever happened. The one after the 2000 election was very close but it could be even closer this year. This would probably give daily headaches to either party because just one special election could tip control over.
James won razor thin and it's a very swingy district. He can be dislodged if there's sufficient investment, I think (tho I'm not the most acquainted with this race, so correct me if I'm wrong).
Edit: otoh this area seems like it has a lot of potential to swing rightward (white working-class Detroit suburbs), so you may be right after all.
I’m in the middle. I think James wins by a slightly larger but still fairly narrow margin this year and goes down in 2026 if it’s a Trump midterm.
