Do you buy that Georgia is gone for Biden?

[Tekken_Guy]

Definitely not. I blame Trump’s good polling numbers there on bad black samples.

[Tekken_Guy]

Definitely not. I blame Trump’s good polling numbers there on bad black samples.

Bad black samples in Georgia. Bad black samples in Michigan. Bad black samples in every national poll. Interesting.

Unless I see concrete evidence these are real shifts and not a systemic polling issue, I’m not inclined to believe any poll that shows Trump getting 20%+ of the black vote.

[Tekken_Guy]

No, I believe he will win it by more than last time. It's a demographic nightmare for the GOP. In 2022 Kemp was propped up by anti-Trump moderates, Perdue's primary challenge did him a huge favor. Such voters obviously will not be voting for Trump this year.

Good point about Kemp's performance.

The 2022 results look very good for Republicans, but if you peek under the hood, it's clear Trump will not be able to win a lot of the voters who helped pad Kemp and Raffepsperger's margins

I think there’s a chance he might be able to replicate Kemp’s 2018 margin.

[Tekken_Guy]

Definitely not. I blame Trump’s good polling numbers there on bad black samples.

Bad black samples in Georgia. Bad black samples in Michigan. Bad black samples in every national poll. Interesting.

Black vote is definitely shifting right but as I stated in another thread this is less likely to have an impact in Georgia, as the Black voters who will move towards Trump the most are urban or rural, and working class. Georgia is filled to the brim with middle to upper middle class suburban Black communities, not to mention a much larger than average level of white people with a college degree. College whites are going to swing towards Biden more than any other group.

Michigan and Wisconsin will be a bigger problem for Biden.

I think Biden will be okay in both states. He has suburban gains in Detroit and Milwaukee/Madison to counter those with if he only has a Hillary performance with urban blacks.