Who is going to win?

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump and its not going to be close

Why?

[Tekken_Guy]

At this point I would give Trump around 60-40 odds of winning it. I always had this election close though, even before I flipped it to Trump.

When did you flip to Trump?

[Tekken_Guy]

The data is pointing to Trump. You can't just ignore polls you don't like. People bring up 2022 but the national polls were spot on in 2022. If Trump wins popular vote by low single digits he is 100% on track to win the electoral college.

Of course, things could change between now and November. But they usually don't. 2020 polls in late March pointed to Biden+7 national victory, in November they also pointed to Biden+7 national victory. 2012 was pointing to low single digits Obama victory, so did final polls. Polls at this time in 2004 were pointing to Bush+2 victory, so did final polls.

When there is an incumbent big shifts usually don't happen, people have their opinions locked in from the start, with momentum shifts only being very subtle.

Are there any positive signs for Biden at least?

[Tekken_Guy]

This question was asked exactly a day ago.

Biden seems to be doing a bit worse in this poll because of the toss-up option while Trump is doing the same.

[Tekken_Guy]

The data is pointing to Trump. You can't just ignore polls you don't like. People bring up 2022 but the national polls were spot on in 2022. If Trump wins popular vote by low single digits he is 100% on track to win the electoral college.

Of course, things could change between now and November. But they usually don't. 2020 polls in late March pointed to Biden+7 national victory, in November they also pointed to Biden+7 national victory. 2012 was pointing to low single digits Obama victory, so did final polls. Polls at this time in 2004 were pointing to Bush+2 victory, so did final polls.

When there is an incumbent big shifts usually don't happen, people have their opinions locked in from the start, with momentum shifts only being very subtle.

Are there any positive signs for Biden at least?

Positives? Well the election is still over 7 months away so there is still a lot of clock in the ballgame. He also seems to have a fundraising advantage although it's unclear how long it will last or if it will be very significant, but it certainly doesn't hurt. He did beat Trump last time, and even though the circumstances are very diffrerent now, his victory still counts for something.

The biggest mistake Biden made though was complacency his entire term. By mid 2021 it was OBVIOUS Trump was going to run and likely be the GOP nominee. Biden should have started ramping up his campaign then and finished out Trump while he was at is weakest moments. He could have used his position in power to build contrast and challenge Trump for his first term. Meanwhile after the midterm embarrasement, there was another opportunity to clean Trump off again. Instead he waited till April to announce, and even that was relatively low-key. People mention this year's SOTU as the campaign kickoff, but that should have happened in 2023. Had his campaign not wasted valuable time and he made a few better policy decisions this could be a borderline Lean/Likely D race right now.

What was the exact moment it became clear Trump would run again?

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump and its not going to be close

What will it get you to take to think Biden will be favored?

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump and its not going to be close

What will it get you to take to think Biden will be favored?

At this point?

All but a literal miracle.

I am not convinced Trump will lose if he is convicted, if any of his trials even see the light of the day before the election (doubtful).

I am not even convinced Trump will lose if he LITERALLY shoots someone in broad daylight, on camera, in the middle of Fifth Avenue.

I would have to see lots of sustained polling suggesting the currently extremely bleak forecast has somehow reversed before I even considered getting my hopes up Biden could win. And frankly I just don't think that's possible because, to the same extent Trump seems to be "Teflon Don," Biden seems incapable of getting anyone to like him no matter what he does.

Best economy since the Clinton years by every objective metric? Doesn't matter.

A rousing State of the Union that seems to defy his image as a doddering old man? Doesn't matter.

Fact is people's perceptions of Biden are baked in and seemingly permanent. Damage is done and there is no undoing it anymore. A front porch campaign hasn't worked since 1896, and Biden was only able to get away with it in 2020 kind of because of very unique circumstances. But reality is even if he had the energy, time, and charisma to hold rallies to match Trump's, no one would show up. No one likes him. He's done. He's over. He's a dead fish in the water, completely DOA. We can try to resuscitate him but all attempts will be futile. We can try to reason with his haters until the cows come home; doesn't matter, their minds are made up and have been to some time and no ad, no speech, no rally, no social media post, NOTHING is going to change them. People seem to believe Biden is a demented Alzheimer's patient with as much faith and certainty as ISIS believes they are sanctioned by Allah, and good luck convincing the latter they're wrong no matter what you say.

Literally the only, faint hope the Democrats have is replacing Biden at the convention. It still probably is futile, too little too late and will be seen as desperate and protested fiercely by the usual "reeeeeeeeeee" suspects on the left.

Basically at this point my outlook on this election is the same as this guy's was on global warming:

(Lol this is perfect: "If your house is burning to the ground, the situation's dire. If your house has already burned to the ground, the situation's over.")

It is literally already over, and we will just go through a long, painstaking process of people who have their heads buried deep in the sand in denial being forcibly ripped out of the sand and made to face reality in the coming months.

Best advice I have for anyone is to make peace with the fact that Donald Trump will be president again and respond to that reality as they best see fit. If that means leaving the country, moving to a different state, or just emotionally preparing themselves, it is what it is and you need to be prepared for it because it's going to happen.

What was the “point of no return” for Biden, in your opinion? The moment Trump 47 became inevitable?

[Tekken_Guy]

MR. DARK BRANDON’s thread from Friday:


This thread:


So apparently there’s been a big swing towards Trump in just one day.