MD (WaPo/UMD): Hogan leads both by double digits

[Tekken_Guy]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

How do you tie him to Trump though? He has pretty continuously condemned Trump, I don’t really see that line of attack working.

I do think it is surprising that the far right has rallied behind Hogan though. I would expect his right flank is soft and may not turn out for him.

Obviously no one ever went broke betting on partisanship to carry the day. I do think this is Likely D, but the DSCC will need to spend serious money here to hold what should be a safe seat.

The DSCC doesn’t need to spend a dime there.

[Tekken_Guy]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

How do you tie him to Trump though? He has pretty continuously condemned Trump, I don’t really see that line of attack working.

I do think it is surprising that the far right has rallied behind Hogan though. I would expect his right flank is soft and may not turn out for him.

Obviously no one ever went broke betting on partisanship to carry the day. I do think this is Likely D, but the DSCC will need to spend serious money here to hold what should be a safe seat.

The DSCC doesn’t need to spend a dime there.

MD isn't the most expensive state in the world even if they decide to spend there.

That said, I'll remind people that in the last 40(!) years, the closest any MD R came in a Senate race was Michael Steele only losing by 10(!) in 2006.

A lot of states have a pretty strong difference in who they think are OK to be state politicians and who they think are OK to be federal politicians. I'm sure my Republican friends here will remind me of this if Laura Kelly runs for KS-SEN in 2026.

Imagine the DSCC recruits Kelly, Beshear and Bel Edwards for 2026.

[Tekken_Guy]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

How do you tie him to Trump though? He has pretty continuously condemned Trump, I don’t really see that line of attack working.

I do think it is surprising that the far right has rallied behind Hogan though. I would expect his right flank is soft and may not turn out for him.

Obviously no one ever went broke betting on partisanship to carry the day. I do think this is Likely D, but the DSCC will need to spend serious money here to hold what should be a safe seat.

The DSCC doesn’t need to spend a dime there.

MD isn't the most expensive state in the world even if they decide to spend there.

That said, I'll remind people that in the last 40(!) years, the closest any MD R came in a Senate race was Michael Steele only losing by 10(!) in 2006.

A lot of states have a pretty strong difference in who they think are OK to be state politicians and who they think are OK to be federal politicians. I'm sure my Republican friends here will remind me of this if Laura Kelly runs for KS-SEN in 2026.

Imagine the DSCC recruits Kelly, Beshear and Bel Edwards for 2026.

Kelly won re-election by 2.
Beshear by 5.
Bel Edwards by 2.5%.
Hogan won his by 12%... AND is running for an open seat.

McConnell is retiring and Cassidy probably is as well or else he loses a primary.