Why is Katie Porter throwing away a house seat?

[Tekken_Guy]

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Nah, if she advances to the general, she’s the clear favorite

No she’s not.

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Baugh is a weak candidate who vastly underperformed Dahle in his seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Nah, if she advances to the general, she’s the clear favorite

No she’s not.

What are you talking about? It's California, Democrats could nominate a random man from the street and he'd win in a landslide.

I meant against Schiff.

[Tekken_Guy]

She also now qualifies for a congressional pension, which makes it an opportune time to jump ship even if she loses (see also Colin Allred, Andy Kim, and even Dean Phillips).

A lot of third-term congressmen are on the outs this year. Elissa Slotkin, David Trone, Abigail Spanberger, Mark Green, Dan Bishop, Debbie Lesko, and John Curtis

[Tekken_Guy]

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Nah, if she advances to the general, she’s the clear favorite

No she’s not.

Even if she advances to the general, I'd say she's a big underdog against Schiff. He has stronger name recognition, roots to CA, bigger donor base, more endorsements, and I could see him doing way better with GOP voters literally just cause he's a white man. Why give away a seat that is probably safe with her, but probably lean D with another Democrat, especially if the GOP nominates a strong candidate like Scott Baugh.

Baugh is a weak candidate who vastly underperformed Dahle in his seat.

Baugh was outspent by Porter by a lot, and the seat was considered a giant reach in 2022. This time around the GOP is united around him, there's a vicious contest for the Democratic nomination, and the seat is more of a Republican target. I don't think there's a House seat getting thrown away here or anything, but it would obviously have been more convenient for Democrats if Porter ran for reelection.

Hopefully this progresses to a Schiff vs. Garvey general like the polls have been showing and we can be rid of her.

Trump is unlikely to do nearly as well as Dahle did here though. He lost it by 11 in 2020.