Some Dems think Biden likelier to win NC than GA

[Tekken_Guy]

If Trump is overperforming with black voters than GA to the right of NC is very much possible but he’s easily winning both states at that point.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Biden can win both states, smart money is on Georgia

There's just no world where Biden is gaining ground in Wake, Mecklenberg and not gaining ground in Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, Henry. And Trump led a lot of early Georgia 2020 polls, this state polling underestimated Biden in a year where national and other state polling overestimated him.

If Biden wins re-election, he is winning Georgia. I sincerly think that.

Biden is way more likely to win without Georgia than Trump is, IMO.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those.

I understand where you're coming from, but I think you're overthinking it. It is perfectly reasonable for Biden to contest a state that he lost by just 1.34%.

It's not as if he's spreading himself thin by going for a 50-state-strategy. I don't buy that focusing on 5 states is a significantly better use of Biden's time than focusing on 6 states.

It's just an unnecessary use of resources, the same way Trump contesting Minneosta in 2020 was. And there isnt even a senate race there either. 1.34% may seem close but it was still like 70k votes. That's a bit more than Bidens raw net in AZ, GA, WI, and NV combined.

From an electoral perspective there’s a non-0 chance NC is the tipping point (though it’s unlikely). Furthermore, as I said earlier NC has other important races up; Biden doing well enough to get Stein over the edge, win the State Supreme Court seat and break NC Rs legislative supermajority would be a huge win, even if Biden loses statewide.

If I were in the Biden team, the only 2 Trump states I’d make any serious investment in are TX and NC, not necessarily with the expectation of winning but to help the long term prospects for Dems in those states.

If Stein and Jackson win, Dems hold the SCNC seat, the supermajority is broken, and Don Davis is re-elected, that’s a huge win for the NCDP even if Biden himself falls short.

[Tekken_Guy]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

From what I understand wasn't this largely true of both sides? Both sort of lumped it into the same bucket as states like OH and IA - R-leaning states that could be competitive but weren't must-wins. Though one can definitely argue Dems had a stronger grassroots effort in GA that cycle; urban GA blacks for instance saw a huge turnout increase from 2016-->2020 as many other urban black places in states like PA and WI saw declines.

And Atlanta is growing while Philly, Milwaukee, Detroit stagnating or declining. Black turnout was actually way worse than 2012, but blacks were a larger % of 2020's eligible voter pool. The real GA difference was Biden getting 29-30% of whites instead of Obama's 23% and these white voters will probably stick with him against Trump.

Biden should hold with college educated whites but non-college whites are a different story: if he does as poorly as Abrams or even Charlie Bailey with them he’s in trouble.

[Tekken_Guy]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

From what I understand wasn't this largely true of both sides? Both sort of lumped it into the same bucket as states like OH and IA - R-leaning states that could be competitive but weren't must-wins. Though one can definitely argue Dems had a stronger grassroots effort in GA that cycle; urban GA blacks for instance saw a huge turnout increase from 2016-->2020 as many other urban black places in states like PA and WI saw declines.

And Atlanta is growing while Philly, Milwaukee, Detroit stagnating or declining. Black turnout was actually way worse than 2012, but blacks were a larger % of 2020's eligible voter pool. The real GA difference was Biden getting 29-30% of whites instead of Obama's 23% and these white voters will probably stick with him against Trump.

Biden should hold with college educated whites but non-college whites are a different story: if he does as poorly as Abrams or even Charlie Bailey with them he’s in trouble.

I thought non-college whites in GA were already something close to 90% Republican. College whites were the demographic where Abrams underperformed Biden the most.

Trump got 79% of them while Kemp hit 83%.

[Tekken_Guy]

2020 could be GA's version of NC's 2008 moment. Republicans were caught sleeping and now that they know they have to fight to win it you'll see them turn out harder and campaign harder there in the coming years.

Republicans have already been fighting with everything they have to hold NC for the last 16 years.

That said, the demographic trends should be good for dems in both states. Both states could go red this time as it's a tailwind year for dems but by the 2030s I expect both to be blue or blue leaning swings, while demographics will benefit Rs in the rustbelt.

Thing is also, MAGA seems to fly worse in GA, while it has not been a hindrance in NC at all and in fact I'd say it aligns better with the conservative coalition in this state. Also if there's a polling error it is likely to be more wrong in GA--particularly if it comes from oversampling black conservatives.

Both states were won narrowly (less than half a point) except Obama '08 was winning the popular vote by 7+ points while Biden '20 won the popular vote by less than 5.

NC was farther away from the tipping point, which meant Republicans didn't really lose their grip on the state long-term but instead got swept up in that year's wave.

That Georgia flipped in a closer election and then reelected its Democratic senator in a Dem midterm  should be a little more worrisome for Republicans.

I think the the senate losses can be explained by outside factors: catastrophic GOP turnout in North GA in the 2021 runoffs and Walker being a horrific candidate in 2022.

[Tekken_Guy]

2020 could be GA's version of NC's 2008 moment. Republicans were caught sleeping and now that they know they have to fight to win it you'll see them turn out harder and campaign harder there in the coming years.

Republicans have already been fighting with everything they have to hold NC for the last 16 years.

That said, the demographic trends should be good for dems in both states. Both states could go red this time as it's a tailwind year for dems but by the 2030s I expect both to be blue or blue leaning swings, while demographics will benefit Rs in the rustbelt.

Thing is also, MAGA seems to fly worse in GA, while it has not been a hindrance in NC at all and in fact I'd say it aligns better with the conservative coalition in this state. Also if there's a polling error it is likely to be more wrong in GA--particularly if it comes from oversampling black conservatives.

Both states were won narrowly (less than half a point) except Obama '08 was winning the popular vote by 7+ points while Biden '20 won the popular vote by less than 5.

NC was farther away from the tipping point, which meant Republicans didn't really lose their grip on the state long-term but instead got swept up in that year's wave.

That Georgia flipped in a closer election and then reelected its Democratic senator in a Dem midterm  should be a little more worrisome for Republicans.

I think the the senate losses can be explained by outside factors: catastrophic GOP turnout in North GA in the 2021 runoffs and Walker being a horrific candidate in 2022.

Democrats have won FOUR races in Georgia in the last 2 cycles (6 if you count Warnock’s first place finish in each of his general elections) yet some people still rely on excuses and claim each win was a “fluke.”

A fluke win happens once in a blue moon (Indiana ‘08, Alabama Senate ‘17), not four times in two cycles.

I’m not saying GA is a blue state, but it sure ain’t a a red state anymore.

Republicans won the cumulative PV in the 2020 senate special in round 1, so I don’t count that as a win for Democrats.