From a Democratic perspective I'm very wary of last night's results (even though I'm thrilled with the outcomes).
1. Clearly Dobbs and Trumpism have flipped the traditional script for non-Presidential elections in Northern states and more white areas. Where White voters make up the main base outside the South we have seen Democrats win again and again in special elections, 2022, and now in 2023. High-propensity white voters are mobilized by abortion and to a lesser extent have switched from being loyal to the GOP now that Trump has firmly taken over the party.
2. Turnout was terrible, especially in Black and Latino areas. I am curious to look at the Virginia results in detail as it doesn't appear this actually affected results there, nor in Mississippi where Presley appears to have improved Black turnout compared to 2019, but I was deeply concerned by the NYC results where Democrats lost a seat in the Bronx - which can only be attributed to turnout.
I'm deeply worried that Democrats will ignore the warning signs about turnout and be shocked and confused when Trump turns out his base and then wins throughout the Sun Belt in 2024. Something needs to be done to change turnout and the work must begin today.
What battleground states will this turnout issue actually affect the election results?
Poll
