NY may be trending Republican, but I doubt it will ever be competitive at the federal level for the foreseeable future. There may be some internal shifts happening in NYC and its suburbs, but at its core it remains a very liberal city. The current Republican Party can make inroads in certain areas but it won’t be enough to end Democratic dominance in the city or the state.
I believe that the Democratic hand wringing and Republican wish casting about New York is a very big reach. Trump’s gains in 2020 can largely be chalked up to incumbency and COVID backlash, while 2022 was more about Democratic turnout collapsing and Hochul having no real base. As a result, Schumer and House Dems suffered as well.
Democrats may have reached their ceiling in NY, but I don’t think Republicans have much more to gain barring a major realignment.
Some of the GOPs biggest gains might come in 75% Dem Asian/Hispanic areas that have little benefit to the party (at least in 2024). Nassau is fairly college educated so i expect a considerably better Dem performance there.
If you really think there’s a chance Santos resigns before his term is up, I have a beachfront mansion in Kansas to sell you.
