OH-9 megathread

[Tekken_Guy]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

[Tekken_Guy]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Latta probably just retires rather than run in a seat that's not Safe R.

[Tekken_Guy]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Latta probably just retires rather than run in a seat that's not Safe R.

Seat would lean R, and Latta would overperform at a high rate, in addition probably scares off what few Dem Challengers would be there (Mayor of Toledo maybe?)

Kaptur may honestly be convinced to run one final time to get rid of Latta.

[Tekken_Guy]

Kaptur is 78 years old and bound to retire by 2026 or 2028. Ohio GOP is probably going to wait it out till then.

Very likely not going to retire anytime soon. She's put in a ton of time waiting in line to chair Appropriations.

Also if a redistricting commission is passed she'll probably drop the western rurals in exchange for Wood County which would make her path towards re-election easier.

[Tekken_Guy]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

By the time she retires, Ohio voters will have passed real gerrymandering reform through the ballot amendment process. This very likely passes this November, and if not, definitely in '26.

Without republican politicians gerrymandering the district to give it a slight republican lean, it's extremely hard to see OH-09 becoming anything other than lean dem at worst. A fairly drawn 9th district by anyone remotely serious would at it's core include Toledo and it's suburbs, Sandusky (these currently are) but add Bowling Green (and all of Wood County) while the current map intentionally cuts Wood in two and adds far-flung western counties to the district to achieve the desired partisan republican result of a lean republican district.

With Kaptur a fair OH-9 would never become that competitive but without her it would be Biden +0 and would definitely being a premier swing seat. That’s with all of Wood and the Lake Erie shoreline, not including Lorain County.

Still, that's better for Dems post-Kaptur than the light-red seat it is today.