California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Tekken_Guy]

I really like Barbara Lee, but we need less elderly people in positions of power. America’s biggest problems stem from the fact that geriatrics refuse to step aside and let younger people take charge. I don’t know how true the allegations against Port are, but even if they are true, I could never support someone who is almost 80 years old unless they’re literally the only option like Biden. Except Bernie of course.

As much as this is true. I don't get how the "representation" argument for young people, which I generally agree with, isn't true for both Black people and women, especially in the Senate?

Tbch, I think the geriatric problem is inextricable from the problem of race and lack of diversity. I wish they didn't have to be pitted against each other here, but when it comes down to it, it's more troubling to me there are currently 0 Black women in the U.S. Senate than the average age, because the latter can be explained unfortunately in part by youth apathy, while the former is almost wholly consequential of social injustice and oppression.

In my opinion, there's no valid reason why states like Maryland, Virginia and Delaware don't at least have 1 Black senator and at the very least a Black woman as senator. It's 0 for 6 on both fronts.

Those are Dem-leaning states with high Black populations. But yet, all of the senators from those states are old/older White men.

Dem establishment supported Van Hollen over Edwards in 2016. Although I imagine Lisa Blunt Rochester would be a/the frontrunner for the next Delaware Senate vacancy.

I've heard rumors than Rochester will go for governor instead, though that may only be a backup if Carper doesn't retire.

Black women do seem next in line for Connecticut, Illinois, and Massachusetts senate vacancies too.

[Tekken_Guy]

Every major candidate named Adam who ran in 2022 lost their race by a razor thin margin, Will Adam
Schiff be next?

[Tekken_Guy]

And just like that Porter becomes my least favorite Democratic Senate candidate. This type of dangerous, misinformed rhetoric is the last thing we need from a U.S. Senator. Before commenting on this issue she needs to understand the vast difference between the US and Israel. This is disqualifying imo - she's just casually promoting the end of democracy in another country.

https://twitter.com/Ian_Gay_briel/status/1633228672772591618?s=20

And just like that Porter becomes my least favorite Democratic Senate candidate. This type of dangerous, misinformed rhetoric is the last thing we need from a U.S. Senator. Before commenting on this issue she needs to understand the vast difference between the US and Israel. This is disqualifying imo - she's just casually promoting the end of democracy in another country.

https://twitter.com/Ian_Gay_briel/status/1633228672772591618?s=20

God d*** it!  Well, I can’t in good conscience support Porter anymore; I agree that this should be disqualifying.  Not that the average voter will care, but yikes!

How is this disqualifying? Most Democrats have supported Israel’s government for decades. Why is suddenly not OK to support Netanyahu now, but it was 10 years ago?

[Tekken_Guy]

How is this disqualifying? Most Democrats have supported Israel’s government for decades. Why is suddenly not OK to support Netanyahu now, but it was 10 years ago?

Because he left the realm of regular democratic leaders and entered the realm of Orbans with the new "reform", which she's legitimizing here.

Apparently she still thinks she's dealing with the same old center-right but democratic leader Bibi from when Obama and Trump were president. Schiff, who you'd expect to be to her right on this, criticized him.

Heck, even Bloomberg of all people is starting to come out against him.

[Tekken_Guy]

Schiff has the advantage now

No, actually. Assuming he makes it to the general, he has no base. Republicans won't vote for him and Porter and Lee already have the left of center vote locked up.

Schiff is the candidate of wealthy establishment liberals. He’d crush Lee in SoCal as she’s too economically left for a lot of those voters, and so is Porter in Silicon Valley.

[Tekken_Guy]

If his goal is a placeholder, I don't see how it could be anyone besides Weber.

I have also seen the name of Bay Area Transit Board member Lateefah Simon mentioned as a possibility. Simon is currently the frontrunner for the CA-12 House seat held by Barbara Lee. It would be weird to have a sitting senator running for a house seat but there is nothing stopping her from from being a senate placeholder while continuing to run for the house. 

Very weird to see someone spell out Bay Area Regional Transit instead of just saying BART.

Ay Caramba!

[Tekken_Guy]

I had a huge problem with Schiff boosting Garvey because had a Republican been locked out of the top two it could have possible lowered GOP turnout down ballot and made it easier to win House seats. Some things are more important than having an easy time winning your own race. Schiff would have still be favored against another Democrat.

The presidential race is at the top of the ticket and Republicans were going to turn out for Trump regardless.

Nobody is showing up for Garvey that would have stayed home otherwise.

[Tekken_Guy]

Question is whether Garvey can exceed Dahle's performance in 2022, he lost by 18.4%. Something like a 59-41 outcome would be a good showing by Garvey.

Yup, though that would require Garvey to run ahead of Trump by a few points. I think that will be the case, just not sure whether it's more than 1-2 pts.

That is dependent on how well Trump does in the first place.