Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
Posts: 13,436
|
 |
« on: August 26, 2021, 10:24:11 PM » |
|
I'd give Biden South Carolina. Here would be the main takeaways:
-SC swung to Biden by a smaller margin than Trump's 2016 margin in NC. So Trump still has a very good shot at holding onto NC.
-Lindsey Graham is not vulnerable, regardless of the what the polls say. That means neither are Daines, Marshall, Sullivan, and all the other "reach" seats.
-Joe Cunningham losing means Republicans will be gaining ground in the house. and thus they should focus on defending the members they have rather than trying to expand the map.
For Trump I'd go with Ohio. Takeaways:
-If he's winning OH by the same margin he did in 2018, then it's clear the rust belt trio are still in play.
-For the house, Steve Chabot's comfortable win should be a sign not to worry too much about playing defense and focus on flipping seats.
-Tim Ryan's close call would be a signal that traditionally Democratic WWC seats like PA-08, IL-17 and WI-03 should still be contested.
|
