Why is Biden polling better in WI than PA

[Tekken_Guy]

Several reasons.

1:

Because his support there is stronger. It's the only2016 "firewall" state where he won through a surge of votes, instead of simply a drop in D turnout.

2: Wisconsin has the combination of the Driftless bouncing back toward the Democrats and suburbs shifting left. Pennsylvania only has the suburbs. Those rurals aren't coming back.

3: Wisconsin is currently experiencing a massive virus surge, which has been ongoing for a while now. During the summer it became clear that virus surges push Trump down a bit and Biden up a bit in places where they happen. We saw it in Texas and Florida, and now we see it in Wisconsin and Iowa.

Why is the Driftless area more receptive to Biden than the PA rurals?

[Tekken_Guy]

Why is the Driftless area more receptive to Biden than the PA rurals?

Wisconsin had a massive drop in voters going for either major party, and is one of the states Hillary lost the most votes in from Obama--there might be a larger pool of D voters who simply didn't like Hillary that Biden could regain.

What about vote-switchers?

[Tekken_Guy]

Why is the Driftless area more receptive to Biden than the PA rurals?

It went strongly D in the 2018 midterms, it was decidedly less Trumpy than its surroundings in 2016, and it's culturally distinct - more akin to rural New England than to anywhere in the Midwest.

Also, it's the most logical way to explain Biden doing better in Wisconsin polling than Pennsylvania polling.

How exactly are they different? What about them makes them behave differently?

[Tekken_Guy]

I think there was a feeling that the Philly area is far too anti-Trump for him to overcome. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is much more evenly split and Madison too small to overpower the rest of the state.