2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Tekken_Guy]

Opinions?

-The North Coast-Sacramento Valley district is totally unacceptable.
-Inyo-Mono-Tahoe-Gold Country is not acceptable. Look at mountains and road connectivity, not just compactness.
-OC and LA look messy but you need to post a zoom in with background map turned on. Santa Clarita-Santa Barbara is just kinda weird.
-VRA stats???

That CD-1 wouldn't even have an incumbent, as LaMalfa would be in the 2nd. Most likely one of the Dahles would run here.

[Tekken_Guy]

If CA-39 becomes bluer at the expense of CA-45 becoming redder, who runs in CA-45?

Maybe Young Kim.

[Tekken_Guy]

Here's a list of all the competitive seats.

https://twitter.com/politicsmaps/status/1453105713132150785?s=20

https://twitter.com/politicsmaps/status/1453105715879432192?s=20

And there is CA-01 which is now a narrow Trump seat. Only seats I would really be disappointed about looking at it from a purely D perspective would be the successors to CA-07 (incorrectly labeled CA-04 here unless we treat CA-03 as the cut seat) and CA-10. Porter is the clear winner, though that was natural given Irvine's transformation.

I'd say that Jim Costa's seat could go down in a red wave. It's not that different from Valadao's.

[Tekken_Guy]

Roughly what's the net change in number of trump and biden seats ?

Trump barely wins the successor CA-10 and CA-48 seats under these lines, though Biden wins the successor CA-50 and CA-22 seats, so its 45-7 cause dems down one through reapportioned. That said, there are only four seats I would say are Safe R on this map, whereas there are presently six or seven depending on your measure. GOP trades two safe seats for two swing ones of various loyalties and the CA-01 successor is marginal. The two marginals might not remain so: CA-48 is GOP by a tiny bit so moving a few precincts may change the topline, CA10 could drop the white precincts in the east of San Joaquin given Latino interests. I think the CA-08 successor got less competitive without Rancho Cucamonga though.

Of course there are new Dem marginal seats on the other side of the coin.

Rancho Cucamonga itself is currently in CA-31 so CA-08 couldn't have dropped it. It actually appears to have gotten more competitive as it dropped a lot of small Republican towns around Joshua Tree and 29 Palms to CA-36 and some of the GOP-leaning suburbs north of Rancho Cucamonga to CA-27, but picked up Redlands, which is a Democratic-leaning city.

[Tekken_Guy]

For 2022 I think it's quite possible only Harder CA-10 and Garcia CA-25 flip, washing each other out. However, it's easy to see a 2023-24 with Trump and congressional GOP going crazy where the Rs end up getting obliterated and lose CA-10,21,22,39,48,50 all at once.

Eh, I’d say Bera’s new seat could flip in 2022 as well. And Issa’s may also fall. He is not a good fit for a Biden+6.

[Tekken_Guy]

CA-45 loses western Irvine to CA-48 and takes in Yorba Linda on the latest draft. Who might run in CA-45?

Young Kim, esp since she wants to avoid a primary battle with Steel presumably.

And I’d assume Porter would run in 48.

[Tekken_Guy]

They're really trying to screw over Katie Porter huh?

No Porter is in 47 double bunked with Steel. Biden +11

Ah. So that leaves that R-leaning NE OC district as an open seat?

Yup. I suppose Young Kim could run there, but she lives closer to the plurality asian seat(Clinton +13, Biden +6)

If they are smart, Kim will run in the North OC R pack and Steele will run in the Asian seat. But they both might want the Asian seat since it contains both of their bases. This though may be foolish since such a seat will likely attract Democratic challengers connected to at least one section of the OC Asian community, nullifying any potential incumbent advantages.

The North OC seat would be the easiest to hold without an R incumbent. Perhaps Mimi Walters will go for a comeback if neither Kim nor Steel run in it.

[Tekken_Guy]

Katie Porter is running in the Biden+11 coastal seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

Katie Porter is running in the Biden+11 coastal seat.

Doesn't Michelle Steel live in that district too? I would guess if she does she moves to greener pastures.

CA-45, the Asian plurality, less Democratic district next door, seems like it would be a better fit for Steel if she wanted to move elsewhere.

I assume Young Kim will run in the Yorba Linda seat. right? It is the least Asian of the three competitive OC districts though.

[Tekken_Guy]

Final map:

SoCal zoom:


Swings in R/Close districts:
Swings:
1 (LaMalfa): Trump +21.8 -> Trump +19
3 (McClintock): Trump +7.8 -> Trump +1.6
5 (Open, Harder) Trump +15.1 -> Trump +12.3
20 (McCarthy): Trump +30.7 -> Trump +24.9
21 (Nunes, Open): Clinton +21.8 -> Biden +20.4
22 (Valadao): Clinton +16.1 -> Biden +10.8
23 (Obernolte): Trump +14.8 -> Trump +9.8
27 (Garcia): Clinton +9.8 -> Biden +12.4
40 (probably Kim): Trump +4.4 -> Biden +1.7
41 (Calvert): Trump +6.0 -> Trump +1.0
45 (probably Steel): Clinton +13.2 -> Biden +6.1
47 (Porter): Clinton +7.6 -> Biden +11.1
48 (Issa): Trump +19.9 -> Trump +12.3
49 (Levin): Clinton +5.6 -> Biden +11.4

40/41 are definitely big targets going into 2024/2026, and 3 is an absolute sleeper pick with how hard the Sac suburbs and Lake Tahoe areas are shifting. Central Valley isn't great but still plenty blue enough for pickups with good candidates. If only they'd drawn LB into one of the OC districts though, woulda really shifted the balance there.

Can't complain, they had to minimize municipality splits and managed to pack all 11 Rs into 6 safe seats anyway, even if Harder is a sacrificial lamb. Could very well be 47-5 in 2024/2026, possibly even 48-4 in a real good year assuming swings stay constant in the R districts.

Is Porter likely to face an R incumbent in 2022?

[Tekken_Guy]

Do we think 42-10 is the most likely outcome here?

GOP wins:
*The Issa seat
*The Calvert seat
*The Obernolte seat
*The McCarthy seat
*The McClintock seat
*The LaMalfa seat
*The open CA-5 bordering the bluer seat that Harder's gonna run in
*The new competitive seat where Steel is running (CA-45)
*The new competitive seat where Kim is running (CA-40)
*And the blue seat that Valadao holds but routinely over-performs in by a lot

While Dems hold all the safe blue seats, take down Garcia in his now even bluer seat, and the Biden +lowdoubledigit seats where Porter, Harder, Levin will run

For a net outcome of R-1, D+0

Valadao, Garcia, and Steel probably all lose

Steel likely holds on in 2022. and Valadao is more likely than not to survive as well. Garcia though could go either way.