2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Tekken_Guy]

My attempt at a fair NJ map that keeps COIs together.

Colored by 2020; not as many competitive districts as I'd like, but it is what it is.

One thing that gets me annoyed about the NJ commission is political deals will prolly be cut (i.e. drawing Kean a seat that involves a weird snake into central Jersey) that end up with maps that benefit specific politicians rather than people (though it should in theory curb extreme partisan gerrymandering).

Do you have the DRA link? I'd like to see the margins on each seat.

Sure:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/31c650fe-999a-4943-abb7-e2d31847a651

Overall it's pretty simillar to the current map in terms of net partisanship, at least on 2020 numbers, just the seats are re-arranged a bit. Kinda interesting how a true R-Pack in NW Jersey can't really happen under today's politics whereas just a decade ago Rs were able to squeeze 3 seats out of the region.

A map like that puts a lot of pressure on Kean. He can either run in the 7th and have an easy path to congress. Or Republicans could push him to run for the 11th instead and turning an otherwise tough race into a toss-up.

The 7th is likely to go Republican with or without Kean. The 11th on the other hand becomes a lot easier to win with him.

I also don't think Pascrell is going to want to lose Paterson, and Sherrill would probably want to keep Montclair.

One person who's definitely not going to be happy with this map is Frank Pallone: it makes his seat a lot more competitive.

My hypothetical ratings for this map

NJ-01: Safe D
NJ-02: Safe D
NJ-03: Likely R
NJ-04: Safe R
NJ-05: Safe D
NJ-06: Likely D
NJ-07: Lean R w/o Kean, Likely R with him
NJ-08: Safe D
NJ-09: Safe D
NJ-10: Safe D
NJ-11: Likely D w/o Kean, Lean D with him
NJ-12: Safe D

[Tekken_Guy]

Anyways tried a leg map that respected municipal boundaries and if I could, tried to stay within counties.

Districts 1, 2, 24, 25, and 26 are gonna be Biden-State GOP seats. The Atlantic City district is like 2 points bluer or so than the current one so it's plausible that it stays blue and doesn't flip in 2017. Gopal's district goes from like Biden +12 to Biden +14 which might allow the assembly seats to flip next election.

Do you have the DRA link? I want to know the margins on each of these seats.

[Tekken_Guy]

Anyways tried a leg map that respected municipal boundaries and if I could, tried to stay within counties.

Districts 1, 2, 24, 25, and 26 are gonna be Biden-State GOP seats. The Atlantic City district is like 2 points bluer or so than the current one so it's plausible that it stays blue and doesn't flip in 2017. Gopal's district goes from like Biden +12 to Biden +14 which might allow the assembly seats to flip next election.

Do you have the DRA link? I want to know the margins on each of these seats.

Yes, here you go
https://davesredistricting.org/join/9d5800ca-3ee0-47c5-8318-224aa61d9860

Where does Jon Bramnick go now that Westfield is in a Biden+29 seat (SD-28)? Does he just carpetbag into that SD-24?

Is Holly Schepisi still capable of winning a Biden+18 SD-36?

[Tekken_Guy]

Anyways tried a leg map that respected municipal boundaries and if I could, tried to stay within counties.

Districts 1, 2, 24, 25, and 26 are gonna be Biden-State GOP seats. The Atlantic City district is like 2 points bluer or so than the current one so it's plausible that it stays blue and doesn't flip in 2017. Gopal's district goes from like Biden +12 to Biden +14 which might allow the assembly seats to flip next election.

Do you have the DRA link? I want to know the margins on each of these seats.

Yes, here you go
https://davesredistricting.org/join/9d5800ca-3ee0-47c5-8318-224aa61d9860

Where does Jon Bramnick go now that Westfield is in a Biden+29 seat (SD-28)? Does he just carpetbag into that SD-24?

Is Holly Schepisi still capable of winning a Biden+18 SD-36?

I doubt a GOP candidate would win anything more than Biden +15. Under Biden +15 it will be possible.

Biden+15 may be the threshold for Safe D in congress but it's probably way higher in the NJ Assembly. The current LD-21 is around Biden+18 and Bramnick won it by 7 points. So it's probably a Toss-up/Lean D on the state legislative level.

LD-24 would be an open seat though. No incumbent legislators live in it currently. Here are some suggestions for the GOP barring the LD-21 delegation carpetbagging:
-Kip Bateman and Mike Pappas are both from Branchburg, and I could see either going for a comeback here.-
-Joe Lukac, an unsuccessful assembly candidate, is from Manville, so he can try again.
-This year's Somerset County Commissioners' slate of Michael Kirsh and Amber Murad are both from here too and both only narrowly lost. Kirsh is from Bridgewater and Murad from Watchung.
-From the Morris County side, Commissioner John Krickus of Washington Township (Long Valley) seems to be the only countywide officeholder in the district.

[Tekken_Guy]

Anyways tried a leg map that respected municipal boundaries and if I could, tried to stay within counties.

Districts 1, 2, 24, 25, and 26 are gonna be Biden-State GOP seats. The Atlantic City district is like 2 points bluer or so than the current one so it's plausible that it stays blue and doesn't flip in 2017. Gopal's district goes from like Biden +12 to Biden +14 which might allow the assembly seats to flip next election.

Do you have the DRA link? I want to know the margins on each of these seats.

Yes, here you go
https://davesredistricting.org/join/9d5800ca-3ee0-47c5-8318-224aa61d9860

Where does Jon Bramnick go now that Westfield is in a Biden+29 seat (SD-28)? Does he just carpetbag into that SD-24?

Is Holly Schepisi still capable of winning a Biden+18 SD-36?

I doubt a GOP candidate would win anything more than Biden +15. Under Biden +15 it will be possible.

Biden+15 may be the threshold for Safe D in congress but it's probably way higher in the NJ Assembly. The current LD-21 is around Biden+18 and Bramnick won it by 7 points. So it's probably a Toss-up/Lean D on the state legislative level.

LD-24 would be an open seat though. No incumbent legislators live in it currently. Here are some suggestions for the GOP barring the LD-21 delegation carpetbagging:
-Kip Bateman and Mike Pappas are both from Branchburg, and I could see either going for a comeback here.-
-Joe Lukac, an unsuccessful assembly candidate, is from Manville, so he can try again.
-This year's Somerset County Commissioners' slate of Michael Kirsh and Amber Murad are both from here too and both only narrowly lost. Kirsh is from Bridgewater and Murad from Watchung.
-From the Morris County side, Commissioner John Krickus of Washington Township (Long Valley) seems to be the only countywide officeholder in the district.

I feel like the reason the GOP did so well in Biden areas this year was because of

1.) Biden's current unpopularity
2.) Ciatarelli's overperformance and Murphy kinda ignoring the race
3.) Suburban reversion

The next NJ Leg election might not see such factors come into play. Biden may be more or less popular, there won't be a gubernatorial race, and who knows how the suburbs trend.

While Bramnick won a Biden +18 seat by 7 points, Vin Gopal won a Biden +11 seat, so it's not a uniform swing against Dems. Meanwhile, Jean Stanfield barely won in a Biden +8 district. I think incumbency and various regional trends had more of an impact than solely Biden's numbers. I think Biden +15-20 is a relatively decent cut off. Sure, some GOP candidates may pick up Biden +17 seats, but some Dems may hold or pick up Biden +8-11 seats as well.

Can we at least consider them swing seats for now?

[Tekken_Guy]

Is there a chance NJ Dems choose to cut a different Democrat, like Kim or Gottheimer, or is it defiintely going to be Malinowski?

[Tekken_Guy]

NJ Twitter/Maybe Actual Map

The map looks more realistic only because it's in a GIS program instead of DRA. I doubt it's the actual map given that they are still in negotations, but I put it into DRA to see the partisanship.

Northwest Sink is Trump +10.1. Van Drew's seat is Trump +8.9. All the other Dems get safe seats.

How likely is it that the NW sink won’t go into Westfield?

[Tekken_Guy]

Drawing Andy Kim and Chris Smith together and putting Tom Kean Jr. in the 12th? I have my doubts.

Kean’s in the 11th actually. It’s Biden+20.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1473688735216713728?s=20

Sherrill seems to be in the “could be interesting in a really bad wave” category, a la Bill Foster, Raja Krishnamoorthi, or Ed Perlmutter.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1473688735216713728?s=20

Sherrill seems to be in the “could be interesting in a really bad wave” category, a la Bill Foster, Raja Krishnamoorthi, or Ed Perlmutter.

Could they all be single digit races?  Sure.

I don’t expect any of them to lose but maybe Republicans will run credible campaigns here.

[Tekken_Guy]

Would be phenomenal if somebody could get their hands on a DRA link - curious to see how Menendez '18 performed on this map.

Malinowski can probably keep his loss to Kean respectable here. Kean will probably have to cut out a Fitzpatrick/Katko-type profile to survive here long-term. Gottheimer should probably hope that NJ progressives remain as incompetent and poorly organized as they are. Van Drew can still be threatened in a particularly poor year for Republicans and these lines probably continue to keep him willing to cross party lines on some things as he did with the infrastructure bill.

Overall a map that likely sheds Dems but requires the requisite Republicans to moderate in some way - not a bad result for the party.

Here ya go (town splits aren't exact but it's less than a 1% difference in population). I find it odd that they didn't go all the way in sacrificing Malinowski's seat but at the same time didn't help him with D turf in neighboring Coleman's district, which is the most Democratic non-VRA district in the state

Maybe Coleman is planning on retiring and Malinowski will run in the 12th.

[Tekken_Guy]

Here is the Menendez map. He won NJ-03 and NJ-05 by 5 and 6 percentage points respectively.

How much did he win 11 by?

[Tekken_Guy]

Hot take: I think there is a possibility one of Gottheimer or Kim lose in 2022, and that Mikie Sherrill's race is within 5 points. And I could very well see a double-digit win for Kean in 2022.

[Tekken_Guy]

Hot take: I think there is a possibility one of Gottheimer or Kim lose in 2022, and that Mikie Sherrill's race is within 5 points. And I could very well see a double-digit win for Kean in 2022.

Even Phil Murphy won these districts.  I could see them being within five points, but it’s highly unlikely that they’ll actually lose. 

I think Republicans will run credible candidates in all these districts and they'll come a lot closer than expected. But yeah I don't see them actually winning them.

[Tekken_Guy]

Hot take: I think there is a possibility one of Gottheimer or Kim lose in 2022, and that Mikie Sherrill's race is within 5 points. And I could very well see a double-digit win for Kean in 2022.

Even Phil Murphy won these districts.  I could see them being within five points, but it’s highly unlikely that they’ll actually lose. 

I think Republicans will run credible candidates in all these districts and they'll come a lot closer than expected. But yeah I don't see them actually winning them.

Ciatterelli was a very credible candidate too...

I never said they were going to win.

[Tekken_Guy]

Can Kean win in a district that contains Linden and Rahway? They are not Republican-friendly...

And Sherill gets another term because Maplewood and South Orange is added there...

I think given Malinowski's weakness and the fact that it's a good GOP year in 2022, Kean will win. However in 2024 with a presidential election Kean could definitely be in some trouble.

What if Malinowski runs in a different district or retires? Does that increase or decrease Kean's chances of winning?

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm not permanently back from my sanity leave, but I can only endure that for so long when it comes to my state and the redistricting news I have been dorkily anticipating.

Anyway, this map is aesthetically butt-ugly. I'm not going to lie. Especially districts 2, 3, 5 (my district still, which I wish they would just renumber as 12 already for the sake of a proper numbering order from north to south!), 7, 8, 9 (Oakland and Franklin Lakes with Paterson and Passaic?), 11, and 12. I guess that's all of them other than 1 and 4, haha! But that tangent aside, it seems to have been the best possible sort of map that the New Jersey Democratic Party could have drawn for partisan purposes.

I'm glad they didn't attempt to draw out Van Drew by possibly watering down the safety of Kim's or Norcross' district, as much as I want that turncoat out of Congress. It was always the wisest choice to shore up Gottheimer, Kim, and Sherrill and cut losses between Van Drew's and Malinowski's districts becoming more Republican. I actually don't think any of those three shored up districts will backfire like with the last maps did for the GOP barring a truly insurmountable Republican wave, which I don't think 2022 will be...it will be bad still of course, don't get me wrong, but mid to high single digit wins for those three at worst probably.

And speaking specifically about district 7, which is deservedly getting most of the attention, the New Jersey Democrats did a very good job at making it as close to a lateral movement as possible. I didn't expect that they would offset the district being drawn more into Sussex and Warren (as was probably always inevitable) so much by putting more of Union County in from Watson Coleman's old district. Kean will likely defeat Malinowski in a rematch here in 2022, but in other years, it's going to be a complete tossup. Hardly the Republican sink I figured it would be. I'll take it though. I really thought this map would be worse. If this was throwing Malinowski under the bus...it's true, but it's a pretty small and slow bus, relatively speaking.

And I will say, so as to not sound like a complete hack, the Republican map really wasn't all that bad. I probably would have tolerated it, even if it's not quite ideal. It was certainly neater looking too.

Anyway, I am going to continue my break from the forum starting now! Just had to get this (and a few spare other observations and posts in not entirely stressful topics) out of my system.

I doubt any of 3, 5, or 11 will flip, but if 2022 is really a mammoth GOP wave year, I could see the potential for a fluke a la OK-05, SC-01, NY-11, or at least come within 5 points or so. I could very well see 6 and 9 within single digits in 2022 as well.

[Tekken_Guy]

The GOP needs to get its own Marc Elias. It seems like the Dems win every redistricting lawsuit and the GOP wins none.

They do have their own Marc Elias. It’s called the Supreme Court of the United States.

[Tekken_Guy]

The GOP needs to get its own Marc Elias. It seems like the Dems win every redistricting lawsuit and the GOP wins none.

They do have their own Marc Elias. It’s called the Supreme Court of the United States.

They will not hear redistricting cases.

Yes. So most redistricting cases just die on the steps of the court.

[Tekken_Guy]

Most of the R gerrymandering in the small to mid sized states (anything smaller than North Carolina/Gerogia) just comes from splitting up the states metros.  

Split up Salt Lake County, Split up Nashville, split up Little Rock, split up Oklahoma City, and split up Charleston (last one might be a bit tricky to avoid due to VRA, but there's obviously fishy business going on in the current map).

These districts would be so basic and elementary under any fair standards that proportionality is hardly even needed.   Just give the cities their own darn districts.

The portion of Charleston taken is around 40% black only.

40% black is still a high floor for Democrats. But yeah this seat and the Nashville one in particular seem like they’ll be issues for the GOP later in the decade.

[Tekken_Guy]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Kean could very well hold that NJ-07 in 2024.

[Tekken_Guy]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Kean could very well hold that NJ-07 in 2024.

He wouldn't even win that in 2022. It's Biden +12 and stacks Piscataway, Morristown, Plainfield into a district with rural Sussex and parts of Dem trending Morris. I believe that map would be a very effective 11-1 gerrymander.

It's a fairly clean map, 2 needs an arm into Camden county to be a double-digit Biden seat. Dems would have nothing to worry about in 12 given trends in Hunterdon, Somerset.

Pre- 2016 the Dems probably couldn't do more than 10-2 (need a NW pack) but the 2016-2020 trends in NJ are extremely favorable for Dems geography because they gained in suburbs, exurbs and only lost ground in deep blue cities, deep red Ocean (perfect for a GOP pack).

Kean barely lost an Biden+10 seat in 2020. No reason to think he can’t win a Biden+12 in 2022, a better year for his party

[Tekken_Guy]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Kean could very well hold that NJ-07 in 2024.

He wouldn't even win that in 2022. It's Biden +12 and stacks Piscataway, Morristown, Plainfield into a district with rural Sussex and parts of Dem trending Morris. I believe that map would be a very effective 11-1 gerrymander.

It's a fairly clean map, 2 needs an arm into Camden county to be a double-digit Biden seat. Dems would have nothing to worry about in 12 given trends in Hunterdon, Somerset.

Pre- 2016 the Dems probably couldn't do more than 10-2 (need a NW pack) but the 2016-2020 trends in NJ are extremely favorable for Dems geography because they gained in suburbs, exurbs and only lost ground in deep blue cities, deep red Ocean (perfect for a GOP pack).

Kean barely lost an Biden+10 seat in 2020. No reason to think he can’t win a Biden+12 in 2022, a better year for his party

These are the worst type of GOP voters post Roe. Honestly I’m not sure Kean holds the NJ-7 he’s running in past 2024.

The 7th in that map is Clinton +5 and less ancestrally R than the current 7th. My point is that NJ Dems would draw a very effective gerrymander with this map.

Honestly though given what the commission drew which was already Dems proffered map, it seems like they want Milnowski to lose to get someone better for the seat while locking in everyone else in North Jersey. They also didn’t unpack Coleman’s seat which is notable

They easily could have gotten NJ-07 to look like its old incarnation. That probably still knocks out Malinowski for 2022 but barring Kean turning into the next Fitzpatrick he’s out no later than 2026.

[Tekken_Guy]

Well, drawing CD lines in my current home state of NJ is always a challenge, but I decided to do the exercise based on neutral metrics, and that hack tie breaker retired judge really did snatch a seat from the Pubs, and in a grotesque manner to boot. I guess the Dems knew what was in the guy's brain in advance or something.

It’s possible to give Republicans a second North Jersey seat too.