2020 New York Redistricting

[Tekken_Guy]

So Dems gain 1 in AL, 1 in LA, 2 in NY (03 and 22). Rs gain 3 seats in NC. Georgia is redrawn but doesn't really make a difference. So it looks like redistricting this cycle is a wash.

Depends on what counts as a gain -- by notional 2022 result, Rs gained 4 seats in NC (the three obvious ones but also the new NC-1, which would've voted R in 2022 for the House but is a Clinton/Biden seat), and Democrats gained 1 seat each in AL/LA/NY (only the Syracuse seat is now notionally-D-in-2022; Santos '22 still wins the new NY-3). If 2022 was fought on 2024 lines, it would've been 223-212 Republican, so a singular extra seat.

Basically Democrats failed to cancel out the NC redistricting, although by successfully putting off a new OH map they mostly fought the 2023-2024 redistricting cycle to a draw (very tiny defeat).

I expect Dems will ultimately flip back all the Biden seats in NY aside from maybe Molinaro’s. I feel people are really overrating Lawler for 2024 and even if he does well with the Orthodox he’s not going to replicate his 2022 success in Westchester with presidential turnout.

I’ve always called Anthony D’Esposito the Republican Max Rose, well Lawler is their Anthony Brindisi.

[Tekken_Guy]

What an insanely weak map, hope Hochul vetoes although it seems extremely unlikely.

Assuming the map remains, I think Despacito and Williams are done, Lawler is in a Lean D race, Ryan is in a Likely D race, and Molinaro is in a Lean R race

Molinaro’s race is no better than a toss-up for him.

[Tekken_Guy]

What an insanely weak map, hope Hochul vetoes although it seems extremely unlikely.

Assuming the map remains, I think Despacito and Williams are done, Lawler is in a Lean D race, Ryan is in a Likely D race, and Molinaro is in a Lean R race

Molinaro’s race is no better than a toss-up for him.

The new NY-19 is actually right of the old one at just Biden+4.4. Its trends are arguable – I'd argue that it's trending left, albeit not super quickly – but it's marginal enough that with incumbency and downballot lag I'd give Molinaro the edge.

I’d say it’s more of a Tilt R at best race than a Lean R one. He’s a lot more likely to lose than, say, Kean is. If Biden holds on I think he’ll be fine for most of the decade, but if Trump prevails he’s a goner in 2026.

[Tekken_Guy]

The national climate has also shifted from 2022. It genuinely looked like the GOP would have trifectas in Arizona and Wisconsin, and possibly even Pennsylvania, and a Senate majority that would block every Biden judicial nomination.

The midterms seem to have caused the fever to break with everyone. Yes North Carolina played hardball as both parties do in that state(the lame-duck D justices were retroactively invalidating referendums on the basis they were passed by legislatures elected on maps they had subsequently struck down but which had been upheld by the then-court) but even there they kept four Biden seats rather than going for 11-3 or 12-2 which would have been closer to the Hochulmander. Republicans in Ohio, with a Court majority in hand, could have gone hard for 12-3, but they chose to lock in what turned out to be a relatively soft gerrymander. Meanwhile, SCOTUS paved the way for D gains in Alabama and Louisiana, and it looks like Ds may get parity in Wisconsin.

In short, the Hochulmander is really a relic of a specific national climate in late 2021 and early 2022. One of relentless Republican advance and existential Democratic panic. It is, to put it simply, embarrassing in the same way that a 12-3 or 13-2 map would have been in Ohio. Or impeaching Justices would have been in WI.

This isn't a "deal" but the relative restraint of Republican actors in other states, by contributing to the lower temperature nationally, likely influenced NY Democrats. I suspect if the WI legislature had decided to trigger a constitutional crisis by impeaching the court and/or governor this may have gone differently.

The NY Courts are also part of the greater northeastern culture of soft merit selection which means they are very aware of climate. Rowen Wilson's December decision is much more conciliatory than his early 2022 dissent going out of his way to state that he is in no way reversing the findings of the previous majority on the merits, but merely demanding a legal process. At the end of which any product will need to comply with the constitution.

Also Suozzi winning comfortably in the special may well have given NY Democrats the feeling that the 2022 environment is a one-off and that future cycles won’t be as bad for them.

If that was the case why didn’t they go after LaLota harder?

[Tekken_Guy]

I’d be happy with this had the R states been fair but they never are - so this is a disgusting move that makes it easier for the fascist party to gain power

That's not really true. Don't get me wrong Republicans do aggressively gerrymander most of the time but they did leave some seats on the table this last cycle. Texas is an egregious gerrymander but Republicans could have drawn a couple more Republican leaning seats in it if they didn't draw every incumbent an ultra safe seat. Republicans could also have been more aggressive in Indiana, Missouri, and possibly Kentucky if they wanted.

Seats left on the Rs left on the table:

NH-02 (though in hindsight Dems might've still won it in 2022 anyways since it'd be like Trump +2 at most)

IN-01

MO-05

KY-03

KS-03 (tbf they tried and it's probably best they didn't try for a true 4-0)

NE-02

TX-29 though getting rid of it may have been too risky for VRA

GA-02 but again too risky with VRA

OH-01, OH-09, and OH-13. Tbf Rs drew the map with the thought they'd win these seats in 2022.

In an indirect way MD-06; Hogan could've tried to push for a map that created a R-leaning config of the seat.

Most of the seats Ds left on the table were from having toxic commission members in places like CO and AZ or just playhing redistricting bad like MD and NY where they passed overly weird maps.

They also sort of left NC-01 on the table, rather than turning it into another safe pickup like 6/13/14 it’s just a battleground.

Other seats D’s left on the table include:
-CO-03
-NJ-07
-NJ-02
-OR-05
-VA-02