Ohio redistricting thread

[Tekken_Guy]

The Dem proposal doesn't help dewine, all it does is draw out moderate Republicans allies in Franklin/Cuyahoga county.

The state House seems to be more problematic on that note. However, Republicans currently have a massive 25-8 majority in the state Senate. It seems likely if there's a proportionally fair map for the state Senate that an 18R-15D map would be quite useful for DeWine. Even if Republicans got back up to 20 on that map, they'd need to hold their entire caucus together.

Commission has adopted the Republican plan on a 5-2 vote. The map will last four years, instead of ten.

For the legislature or the Congressional map? Also, what are the partisan leans of said approved map(s)?

Slightly Seperate topic but one reason why the senate GOP advantage is so massive is because the Franklin delegation just completely fell apart for the GOP In the state house bar one seat while the GOP still has 1 state senate seat wholly within Franklin and another third with Deleware.  That along with the other side with the most extreme trends near Youngstown/Warren still having 2 state house Democrats but both senate seats flipping to the GOP. The last part obviously also can't be attributed to any gerrymandering as we are talking about an area that swung 40 points right.

The thing is that Franklin seat would be normally unwinnable for the GOP. The State House PV in the 3 nested districts was pretty Democratic while the senate seat was GOP by like 100 votes. Logically you think the GOP would concede that seat try to do a South County + Pickaway seat. It’s much more durable for them than the other seat would be.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1496601989291069453?s=20&t=Q0qvbktfSoOAs...

Republican Paul Miller presented a Congressional map before the commission today, which focused on congressional lines. Others testified before the recess until tomorrow, but didn't have maps. An Akron Dem noted he didn't think Geauga belongs with Akron. If this is the future plan, then the court will probably just appoint a master, which they can without jumping through hoops like on the leg side.

IDK don't commission Dems have a strong incentive to make a deal and lock the map in for the decade?

No, they can try to push for uniting Lucas with Wood, having the Dayton seat go to Springfield rather than Warren County. And they can sacrifice their Safe D Akron seat for a better shot at the western Cuyahoga seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

It looks like this discussion is about the state legislature maps, although I don't see why those proposals can't work for the Congressional map as well. I think the state legislature maps are where the OH Supreme Court is really pushing hard. At someone on the Republican side of the commission realizes that this back and forth with the Court is not going to go anywhere.

As for the Congressional map, the Court is not going to accept anything that doesn't have a district entirely contained within Hamilton County. They also likely want a Summit County-based district as well. (Combine it with Canton in Stark County and you have a very good COI as well.) After that, the main points of contention are where to put the remainder of Cuyahoga County, how to draw the Toledo district, and whether or how to draw a second compact district in the Columbus. A northern Franklin-Delaware County district gets you a baseline of 5 Democratic districts out of 15. Unless you do rest-of-Cuyahoga plus Lorain, any district there will probably have a decent Republican lean. Democrats can probably hold the Toledo seat so long as it moves east along the lakeshore instead of into the hyper-Republican counties to the west.

I think a district with all of Summit County will be highly competitive this year if it does not go into eastern Cuyahoga.

I’d feel a fair map would look like this:
OH-01: Hamilton County seat, Safe D
OH-02: Butler/Warren/Clermont seat. Chabot and Wenstrup would run here. Safe R
OH-03: Columbus seat. Beatty runs here. Safe D
OH-04: Rurals to the northwest of Columbus. Jordan runs here. Safe R
OH-05: Toledo based swing seat with both Kaptur and Latta. Toss-up
OH-06: Southeast rurals. Johnson vs. Balderson. Safe R
OH-07: Rurals to the northeast of Columbus. Gibbs runs here. Safe R
OH-08: Rurals on the western Border. Davidson runs here. Safe R
OH-09: Cleveland suburbs, with Lorain and/or Medina attached. Toss-up but would probably favor Rs.
OH-10: Dayton Seat. Turner runs here. Safe R with Turner but competitive without him.
OH-11: Cleveland seat. Brown runs here. Safe D
OH-12: Columbus burbs seat with Delaware and affluent parts of Franklin. Lean D.
OH-13: Akron/Canton seat. Toss-up
OH-14: Northwest seat with Mahoning Valley. Joyce runs here. Safe R
OH-15: Rurals south of Columbus. Technically no incumbent but Carey would run here. Safe R.

[Tekken_Guy]

I totally agree that that's what a fair map would probably look like. I think your OH-12 is at least Likely D. Northern Franklin with Delaware County is a double-digit Biden seat. I'll agree to disagree that any Akron-Canton seat would at least barely Lean D. I think it's around Biden+8, if I remember correctly.

If your OH-05 takes in all of Wood and moves east from there rather than west, I totally agree. Kaptur is a strong incumbent in what would be a toss-up seat. But yeah, definitely a toss-up. As for your OH-09, that's a big missing piece of the puzzle. It's competitive either way, but probably Lean R (and Likely R this year) if it goes into Medina and potentially south of there. A Cuyahoga-Lorain district would be extremely competitive. I think it would have a roughly even PVI. (It's crazy that that would likely have been a Safe D district a decade ago. Democrats really need to be concerned about their losses in NEOH.)

I think any Dayton district is basically fools gold for Democrats. I think it's one of those seats that a party has that the other party just can't break through no matter, despite appearing competitive on paper.

-Honestly if Republicans run State Sen. Stephanie Kunze (who held onto her Biden+15 state senate seat in 2020 by 100 votes) they have a good shot at keeping that OH-12. And if the seat goes further south down Franklin’s western border it’s probably less blue.
-For OH-05 I think a lot of it depends on if Latta’s the nominee or if he steps aside for someone like Gavarone. Kaptur’s far from safe though even in a narrow Biden seat.
-OH-09. Lorain probably is a bit too big to fit in a district with Cuyahoga if the latter is only split twice. I honestly was thinking a district have most of the suburban parts of Cuyahoga, Medina, and leftovers of Lorain, I’d assume Miller’s the R nominee here, but I’m not sure who Ds would run. Maybe Phil Robinson?
-The OH-13 would probably look like the one that’s in the current map. That’s only like a Biden+3 and almost all of Stark County’s bluest parts are already in the seat. Assuming it’s Sykes vs. Gesiotto I’d narrowly have the latter favored.
-The Dayton seat might be winnable for Dems once Turner’s gone, though Republicans would probably still be favored most of the time.

[Tekken_Guy]

I just calculated, the leftovers of Cuyahoga and Lorain are just barely too big to fit in a district.

[Tekken_Guy]

I totally agree that that's what a fair map would probably look like. I think your OH-12 is at least Likely D. Northern Franklin with Delaware County is a double-digit Biden seat. I'll agree to disagree that any Akron-Canton seat would at least barely Lean D. I think it's around Biden+8, if I remember correctly.

If your OH-05 takes in all of Wood and moves east from there rather than west, I totally agree. Kaptur is a strong incumbent in what would be a toss-up seat. But yeah, definitely a toss-up. As for your OH-09, that's a big missing piece of the puzzle. It's competitive either way, but probably Lean R (and Likely R this year) if it goes into Medina and potentially south of there. A Cuyahoga-Lorain district would be extremely competitive. I think it would have a roughly even PVI. (It's crazy that that would likely have been a Safe D district a decade ago. Democrats really need to be concerned about their losses in NEOH.)

I think any Dayton district is basically fools gold for Democrats. I think it's one of those seats that a party has that the other party just can't break through no matter, despite appearing competitive on paper.

-Honestly if Republicans run State Sen. Stephanie Kunze (who held onto her Biden+15 state senate seat in 2020 by 100 votes) they have a good shot at keeping that OH-12. And if the seat goes further south down Franklin’s western border it’s probably less blue.
-For OH-05 I think a lot of it depends on if Latta’s the nominee or if he steps aside for someone like Gavarone. Kaptur’s far from safe though even in a narrow Biden seat.
-OH-09. Lorain probably is a bit too big to fit in a district with Cuyahoga if the latter is only split twice. I honestly was thinking a district have most of the suburban parts of Cuyahoga, Medina, and leftovers of Lorain, I’d assume Miller’s the R nominee here, but I’m not sure who Ds would run. Maybe Phil Robinson?
-The OH-13 would probably look like the one that’s in the current map. That’s only like a Biden+3 and almost all of Stark County’s bluest parts are already in the seat. Assuming it’s Sykes vs. Gesiotto I’d narrowly have the latter favored.
-The Dayton seat might be winnable for Dems once Turner’s gone, though Republicans would probably still be favored most of the time.

Kunze would get killed

She’d probably overperform Trump heavily, like she did in 2020.

[Tekken_Guy]

I totally agree that that's what a fair map would probably look like. I think your OH-12 is at least Likely D. Northern Franklin with Delaware County is a double-digit Biden seat. I'll agree to disagree that any Akron-Canton seat would at least barely Lean D. I think it's around Biden+8, if I remember correctly.

If your OH-05 takes in all of Wood and moves east from there rather than west, I totally agree. Kaptur is a strong incumbent in what would be a toss-up seat. But yeah, definitely a toss-up. As for your OH-09, that's a big missing piece of the puzzle. It's competitive either way, but probably Lean R (and Likely R this year) if it goes into Medina and potentially south of there. A Cuyahoga-Lorain district would be extremely competitive. I think it would have a roughly even PVI. (It's crazy that that would likely have been a Safe D district a decade ago. Democrats really need to be concerned about their losses in NEOH.)

I think any Dayton district is basically fools gold for Democrats. I think it's one of those seats that a party has that the other party just can't break through no matter, despite appearing competitive on paper.

-Honestly if Republicans run State Sen. Stephanie Kunze (who held onto her Biden+15 state senate seat in 2020 by 100 votes) they have a good shot at keeping that OH-12. And if the seat goes further south down Franklin’s western border it’s probably less blue.
-For OH-05 I think a lot of it depends on if Latta’s the nominee or if he steps aside for someone like Gavarone. Kaptur’s far from safe though even in a narrow Biden seat.
-OH-09. Lorain probably is a bit too big to fit in a district with Cuyahoga if the latter is only split twice. I honestly was thinking a district have most of the suburban parts of Cuyahoga, Medina, and leftovers of Lorain, I’d assume Miller’s the R nominee here, but I’m not sure who Ds would run. Maybe Phil Robinson?
-The OH-13 would probably look like the one that’s in the current map. That’s only like a Biden+3 and almost all of Stark County’s bluest parts are already in the seat. Assuming it’s Sykes vs. Gesiotto I’d narrowly have the latter favored.
-The Dayton seat might be winnable for Dems once Turner’s gone, though Republicans would probably still be favored most of the time.

Kunze would get killed

She’d probably overperform Trump heavily, like she did in 2020.

Not by even remotely enough to win and that’s if she somehow managed to win the nomination

I feel it depends on what the district even looks like. If it takes in some of the more conservative areas in Franklin County in the southern parts of the county I can see her pulling it off. My OH-12 on my DRA is a Biden+7.8 district.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/OPoliticsguru/status/1506058528762515458?s=20&t=viiILbuP...

Back on the expected congressional schedule, procedural hiccups appear to have been taken into account by the court's majority.

Looks like the tweet was deleted. What's going on here?

Just the court order demanding a responce from the defendants today after the suit was filed yesterday.

Do you have another source for it? The fact it was deleted makes me wonder if it was fake.

If that was legit, then the delay must be about to expire.

Here you go.

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1506024935193550860

RRH Elections on Twitter says that this suit is only to get a new map for 2024; however the court and the plaintiffs actions would suggest otherwise. Anyone have more insight?

It seems like there’s 2 different suits from my understanding one of which is seeking immediately overturn the map while the other is for 2024.

The ACLU lawsuit is for 2024 but the other one is for 2022.

[Tekken_Guy]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

I'm not sure. If the could have drawn their own map, I would have expected them to when they struck the first map down. I don't see why they'd suddenly have that power now.

They technically can't just use the old map because OH lost a district, but in theory I could see federal courts ordering them to use a commission map just for one cycle. Especially if courts order the recently tossed out legislative maps to be used because "there's not enough time" before the primary.

[Tekken_Guy]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

I'm not sure. If the could have drawn their own map, I would have expected them to when they struck the first map down. I don't see why they'd suddenly have that power now.

They technically can't just use the old map because OH lost a district, but in theory I could see federal courts ordering them to use a commission map just for one cycle. Especially if courts order the recently tossed out legislative maps to be used because "there's not enough time" before the primary.

No the court can't draw the map after the 1st try.

What do you mean?

[Tekken_Guy]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

I'm not sure. If the could have drawn their own map, I would have expected them to when they struck the first map down. I don't see why they'd suddenly have that power now.

They technically can't just use the old map because OH lost a district, but in theory I could see federal courts ordering them to use a commission map just for one cycle. Especially if courts order the recently tossed out legislative maps to be used because "there's not enough time" before the primary.

They can't use the old map anyway due to population changes, but least change is a metric even when the number of districts change, it is just less least change. A federal court would presumably use a special master or masters to draw the map.

I'm wondering if the court's conservative lean will lead to a map favorable to Republicans.

[Tekken_Guy]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

I'm not sure. If the could have drawn their own map, I would have expected them to when they struck the first map down. I don't see why they'd suddenly have that power now.

They technically can't just use the old map because OH lost a district, but in theory I could see federal courts ordering them to use a commission map just for one cycle. Especially if courts order the recently tossed out legislative maps to be used because "there's not enough time" before the primary.

They can't use the old map anyway due to population changes, but least change is a metric even when the number of districts change, it is just less least change. A federal court would presumably use a special master or masters to draw the map.

I'm wondering if the court's conservative lean will lead to a map favorable to Republicans.

Nope

Why not? They'd probably be sympathetic to the legislature on the "Purcell principle".

[Tekken_Guy]

A solid map for Dems IMO would have three safe seats in the three C’s, the existing swing seats in Akron and Toledo (with possibly a more favorable draw for the latter). Then they could get a second safe seat in th Columbus suburbs or at least a swing seat there, and another in the Cleveland suburbs. And finally the Dayton seat which Mike Turner would be safe in but could be competitive once he retires.

[Tekken_Guy]

Behold! An OH map with only 1 Biden seat.

This screams Dummymander to me.

[Tekken_Guy]

If the Ohio supreme court sides with the republicans. It means the map stays in place 2 additional years right ?

No; it means that many of the opinions from 2021 get overturned and the GOP could enact a map like the previously enacted proposal, though it's unclear that they have the numbers to enact something like this again in the state House. (This specific map is also a non-starter because it puts Miller and Sykes together in a seat which is only Leans R -- the NEOH lines would have to change, but it would certainly be possible to screw over Sykes pretty hard. On this map Landsman's seat is redder than on the real map but still notionally blue, but this map was enacted with some moderate components to try to please the old Court, so it might be that a new map would draw a notionally-red-in-2022 seat.)

Not true. The current map was passed by the legislature in March 2022 and thrown out by the old moderate court last July. If the court overturns the decision the existing congressional map just comes back into place.

[Tekken_Guy]

One question I have is would the new Conservative OH Court majority have any ability to block a redistricting commission from getting on the ballot, or somehow strike it down as unconstitutional if successfully passed? No state courts have ever struck down a redistricting commission via ballot initiative before, but we have seen weak commissions such as that in UT made powerless by the state legislature.

In Ohio ballot initiatives add amendments to the state constitution, so there's no way for the state court to strike it down once passed.   They can block the measure from getting on the ballot though if it doesn't meet requirements.

In Utah initiatives are just made statutes that the legislature can adjust at will,  I guess officially the state court could strike down a statute passed by ballot measure, but it'd be weird to since they allowed the measure on the ballot in the first place.

I see. I really hope there's a serious effort to get a redistricting commission on the ballot for 2024 and passed. Seems like so much emphasis is just going to an abortion initiative rn, and I worry it may completely overshadow any effort for redistricting commission.

Note that the first hurdle would be a 60% ballot measure in August - if that ballot measure somehow passes, it would probably make this and other future proposed ballot measures more difficult. (As we speak now, there is an active effort to get people to vote down the August ballot measure.)

Yeah, but I think that would hurt things like trying to protect abortion rights at the ballot box a lot more than something like a redistricting reform (most people tend to default to reflexively supporting the latter regardless of the particular proposal’s merits or lack thereof).

In any case, getting Democratic votes for whatever slightly more Republican-leaning and/or least change map the State House produces (my guess is that they start with least change map).  Meanwhile the Republican State Senate leader, Matt Huffman, is the sort who probably will produce if not a maximalist gerrymander than at the very least a significantly more Republican map than even the current gerrymander.  However, I doubt he’ll fight too much over congressional redistricting as long as Republicans end up the clear winners relative to their current position. 

Kaptur is helped tremendously by Latta’s selfish and lazy tendencies.  He has a lot of pull in both Houses of the state legislature (albeit not quite as much as he used to) and will fight like Hell to keep most of Wood County in a separate Safe R district from Kaptur’s seat even if it costs Republicans a house seat and he’d be a near lock in the new district.  He simply doesn’t care and has no interest in anything remotely resembling a competitive race for the rest of his career.  Both OH legislative Houses were already going to have to deal with this and with Stephens having to fight hard for a map that’s acceptable to OH House Dems if he and his affiliated ~1/3 of the OH House Republican want to remain in power, I could easily see Huffman agreeing to just leave Kaptur’s seat largely untouched, especially since she’s old and it’ll probably flip as soon as she retires anyway.

As for Landsman and Sykes, Matt Huffman (along with most non-Stephens faction Republicans, for that matter) is almost certainly going to insist on one of them being sacrificed as tribute.  It’s possible that there are enough Republican in the State Senate who don’t really care enough to get in a pissing match over this that we end up with a least change map, but I doubt it.  It’s possible and more likely than a maximalist 13-2 RRH fantasy gerrymander…but it sure isn’t how I’d bet. 

So Landsman or Sykes probably gets the axe.  I actually think much of the OH House Democratic Caucus would much rather throw Landsman to the wolves, but geography will save Landsman.  We may end up with Warren County being “liberated” and Landsman getting an all HamCo seat if it doesn’t force changes elsewhere that would inconvenience anyone in the Republican US House delegation.  We could also see a least change version of Landsman’s seat, but I highly doubt it gets more Republican.

That leaves Sykes as the one to be sacrificed and that area is trending Republican anyway (she only won b/c Republicans nominated a dumpster fire-tier candidate…whom they seem inexplicably intent on running again in 2024 for some reason).  This district will likely be redrawn as a technically competitive but still reliably Republican district (they did the same thing to Betty Sutton in 2012).  I imagine it’d just take swapping the Sykes precincts in Stark County for blood red Stark County and northern Tuscarawas County precincts (and maybe some from Noble County to round out the population if necessary) from OH-6.  The new district would be Republican enough (and rapidly trending Republican as well) that to sink Sykes while also being secure for even a weak incumbent in non-wave elections (and even then, it may just be Safe R for the rest of the decade). 

I think that would be enough to appease everyone.  Obviously, the Democrats from Summit County have to oppose it (or at least loudly complain) for optics reasons (the Sykes family is extremely well-connected and basically the first family of African-American Democratic politics in Akron and it’ll still be a major Republican gerrymander, but Democrats also know that while they have some real leverage, it is far from unlimited.  As Torie would say, this is a “pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered” situation.  They can likely force a map that keeps Kaptur in office until she dies, faces a true Republican wave, or decides to retire and keeps the Cincinnati seat in Democratic hands, but if they get greedy and say least change or bust then it could backfire.  Whether it’s State Senate Republicans or State House Democratic Caucus-Stephens faction coalition, if anyone digs in and throws such a temper-tantrum that this becomes DeWine’s problem, then it’s going to backfire for that side.

As for state legislative redistricting, we’re likely to see a maximalist Republican State Senate gerrymander and either an incumbent protection gerrymander or a map that helps State House Dems and Stephens Republicans while double-bunking or otherwise endangering some of Stephens’ most vocal and/or politically dangerous Republican foes.

Stephens and Huffman will be given wide latitude in drawing maps for their respective chamber.  That’s just how Ohio politics works.  Plus, DeWine and LaRose are party hacks who never had a truly independent thought in their lives (this is especially true of LaRose).  They’re not looking to rock the boat by asserting themselves, they’re looking for the path of least resistance that all important Republican players can live with.

Honestly Marcy Kaptur will be the easiest to take out. All they really need to do is add more western rural counties like Henry, Paulding, or Van Wert and take out some of the less red areas like Erie or Wood. That gets it to around Trump+13 which may be too much for Kaptur to overcome especially with a opponent not named Majewski.

Republicans honestly won’t try to take out Landsman since the no-splitting-Cincy rules makes it impossible to get anything better than a left-trending swing seat for Republicans without encroaching on Wenstrup’s territory.

Sykes though…she might get a least change seat. I don’t think either Miller or Joyce are going to want to take in parts of Summit since those will make their districts less red. Worst they do is just swap out Canton for some redder parts of Stark.

[Tekken_Guy]

So what do we think will happen with Huffman v. Neiman? It was GVR'd in light of Moore v. Harper, but it would seem that that decision only further confirms that OHSC did, in fact, have the authority to strike down Ohio congressional districts as partisan gerrymanders. Will it matter?

Only the extreme interpretation of SLT would have reversed the Ohio S. Ct. ruling, which nobody endorsed. That is because the Ohio Constitution actually has language that proscribes unduly favoring one party, just like NYS. So the ruling is alive and well, albeit toothless apparently.

A new map will probably be drawn, which the now more Pub friendly court will find does not unduly favor one party. Just how hackish that decision will be depends on what the map looks like. If it both does now follow neutral redistricting principles and screws the Dems, and the S. Ct. upholds it, that will be very hackish.

The OHSC can just reverse the ruling on the same ground the North Carolina court did which would reinstate the existing map.

[Tekken_Guy]

So what do we think will happen with Huffman v. Neiman? It was GVR'd in light of Moore v. Harper, but it would seem that that decision only further confirms that OHSC did, in fact, have the authority to strike down Ohio congressional districts as partisan gerrymanders. Will it matter?

Only the extreme interpretation of SLT would have reversed the Ohio S. Ct. ruling, which nobody endorsed. That is because the Ohio Constitution actually has language that proscribes unduly favoring one party, just like NYS. So the ruling is alive and well, albeit toothless apparently.

A new map will probably be drawn, which the now more Pub friendly court will find does not unduly favor one party. Just how hackish that decision will be depends on what the map looks like. If it both does now follow neutral redistricting principles and screws the Dems, and the S. Ct. upholds it, that will be very hackish.

The OHSC can just reverse the ruling on the same ground the North Carolina court did which would reinstate the existing map.

They could, but the Pubs probably want more (they were restrained by the "Rino" judge now emeritus and pulling out weeds in her rose garden), so a new map is more probable. The issue now is whether the new map is a pig or a hog. Ohio and NC are the great equalizers to reverses elsewhere for the Pubs. Line drawing is going to get worse before it gets better. It's war out there.

How exactly are Republicans going to handle the ruling? Ruling in favor of the Republicans overturns the ruling and reinstates the current map. Ruling in favor of the Democrats would order a redraw. Do they hackishly side with the Democrats so that a redraw can happen, or do they side with the GOP in a way that allows a redraw anyway? Or do they just reinstate the current map?

[Tekken_Guy]

So what do we think will happen with Huffman v. Neiman? It was GVR'd in light of Moore v. Harper, but it would seem that that decision only further confirms that OHSC did, in fact, have the authority to strike down Ohio congressional districts as partisan gerrymanders. Will it matter?

Only the extreme interpretation of SLT would have reversed the Ohio S. Ct. ruling, which nobody endorsed. That is because the Ohio Constitution actually has language that proscribes unduly favoring one party, just like NYS. So the ruling is alive and well, albeit toothless apparently.

A new map will probably be drawn, which the now more Pub friendly court will find does not unduly favor one party. Just how hackish that decision will be depends on what the map looks like. If it both does now follow neutral redistricting principles and screws the Dems, and the S. Ct. upholds it, that will be very hackish.

The OHSC can just reverse the ruling on the same ground the North Carolina court did which would reinstate the existing map.

They could, but the Pubs probably want more (they were restrained by the "Rino" judge now emeritus and pulling out weeds in her rose garden), so a new map is more probable. The issue now is whether the new map is a pig or a hog. Ohio and NC are the great equalizers to reverses elsewhere for the Pubs. Line drawing is going to get worse before it gets better. It's war out there.

How exactly are Republicans going to handle the ruling? Ruling in favor of the Republicans overturns the ruling and reinstates the current map. Ruling in favor of the Democrats would order a redraw. Do they hackishly side with the Democrats so that a redraw can happen, or do they side with the GOP in a way that allows a redraw anyway? Or do they just reinstate the current map?

They stall until the Pubs pass a new map, mooting the prior case.

Even North Carolina waited for a green light from the court before redrawing.

[Tekken_Guy]

They will probably sink Cincy and make OH-13 redder. Kaptur is nearly 80, so they could just make that seat a few points redder and wait for her to retire.

I don't think they'll really touch OH-13. You can't really do much to it without making Max Miller or Dave Joyce upset. Also Democrats could agree to let Kaptur's seat get redder in exchange for keeping OH-13 a toss-up swing seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

Some changes were made (not sure what), and these maps got unanimous support of the board and will be locked in for the next 8 years.

Unless the proposed amendment in circulation passes, at which point we will be back here in 2025. See you all then!

The Dayton Senate seat is 55.2% Biden now,  it gained Trotwood and lost Miamisburg.  That's probably the biggest change on the Senate map, SD-24 got a bit more R, so did a few others like SD-2.

The Dems floor got better, but kind of a hard ceiling of around ~12 or 13 seats now, and even that'll be tough.

House: https://davesredistricting.org/join/6c57f54e-eee4-4f75-83b8-5f825f6cf9e2 State House

Compared to the initial draft there remains a few more competitive D leaning seats, mostly around Cleveland to the point that no Dem is actually drawn out of their seat politically. The 11th seat in Columbus remains swingy rather than Safe R, and there actually is now a seat winnable for Dems in Delaware.

Also there is a third Safe D seat in Toledo to the one R seat, whereas under the competative-mander it was two GOP-won hyper-marginal seats, and in the first draft a R seat and more Dem-favoring swing seat. So someone must be retiring.

Looking overall at the House map, while things seemingly get overall worse for Dems, the concentration of competition to fewer seats that are more winnable than previously makes immediate success more possible. It's seems more likely than not the Dems will break the supermajority there for what its worth, if the environment isn't radically different or they blow candidate nominations. That must be the House caucus cashing in their goodwill from the fight over the speakership in January, and why the dems voted for their maps. And in their minds, the maps will be gone in 2025 so that immediate goal is enough.

Also, why the absurd treatment of Athens? It's not outvoting those neighbors needed for population equity under normal circumstances.

Derek Merrin held the western Lucas seat and is term-limited, but Josh Williams who won the eastern seat moved westward, so the western seat is the GOP-leaning one and the eastern-one conceded to Dems.