United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[brucejoel99]

I don't know if this has already been said here, but at this point if Sunak does not call a May election I will not be surprised to eventually see a poll with the Tories third (behind Reform UK). That obviously won't happen at the GE but one poll would be humiliating enough.

The thing is Sunak is doomed anyway.

He's probably after a CEO job like Nick Clegg, so PM 2022-25 looks better on his CV than 2022-24.

He was never a party man, so I don't think he cares if the Conservatives survive if he can squeeze another few months on the top job.

It's all very LD 2015, even down to leadership hopefulls thinking they will retain their seats and run  for the leadership afterwards, like Vince Cable.

Sunak won't be PM for a single femtosecond of 2025, even if he expects or desires to be. I reckon he could be toppled at Conference if he hasn't called the election or at least indicated a (pre-Christmas) date for it by then. Talking of which, hasn't it been indicated that the 2023 Conference season was the last before the election anyway?

Labour's 2024 Annual Conference is currently scheduled for Liverpool from Sun. 22 Sept. - Wed. 25 Sept., as is the 2024 Tory Conference for Birmingham from Sun. 29 Sept. - Wed. 2 Oct. Idk if that's just on-paper tho 🤷

[brucejoel99]

October 10th now being briefed as a possible GE date.

If this is seriously planned, then there will need to be some guidance regarding the party conferences sooner rather than later (as they would need to be cancelled if it is indeed going to be held then)

If it's really October 10th, then kudos to MI6 for somehow winning the day on their warnings last year about a simultaneous campaign happening the last month of the U.S. presidential.

[brucejoel99]

So apparently Sunak is taking a “day off” from the campaign trail tomorrow.

From this, it sounds as if he's about to resign. Not saying it will happen, but there's no doubt a lot of unhappy voices within the party who might have had a word with him or at least with those within his inner circle.

https://x.com/kiranstacey/status/1794122073373081653

There's already been the talk about letters and the Gove announcement can't have helped matters. Could it be that Gove has taken down (intentionally or otherwise) another Prime Minister?

[brucejoel99]

So apparently Sunak is taking a “day off” from the campaign trail tomorrow.

Seems like you are getting your wish:

The Tory GE campaign next year is gonna be some of the most desperate and embarrassing stuff of all time.

https://twitter.com/MartinConcagh/status/1794127357365596235

[brucejoel99]

Under UK rules, can Sunak remain PM until 4 July but the Tories presenting another PM candidate for the election?

Nothing standing in the way, theoretically. The Liberal Party pulled this stunt a couple of times. Most notably, Gladstone resigned the leadership, leaving the party with a Commons and Lords leader, but no *party leader*, from 1875-1880, and then took the leadership back after the party won an election in that state.

Sunak is PM until he resigns, and advises Charles to appoint someone who can command the confidence of the Commons. The reason it won’t happen is that it hasn’t happened in the post-war era, is a bit of a fiddle with the party constitution (which assured members a vote on their leader) and will only cause the Tories more trouble.

[...]

After dissolution, Sunak or whoever the Cabinet designates, remains PM until July 5th, the Conservatives won't have a leader until after the election.

If the Conservatives fail to elect any MP ( given their dire straits why not ?) they won't have a leader, according to their rules it has to be an MP not a Lord.

Hmm, right... So no chance of happening what is quite common in other European countries, where the incumbent PM remains as caretaker but the party in power presents another candidate. Plus, yeah, there is no time for this kind of process, 40 days until election day.

This won't happen but I, for one, will laugh my ass off to death if they import this move from the Continent for the sake of pinning the end of 14 years on David Cameron (something something broken clock):

https://twitter.com/carolvorders/status/1794428466206511613

[brucejoel99]

Rishi watched Keir kick his Saturday morning off by promising to lower the voting age to 16, saw that most recently polled 13 points underwater (May 2023: 37% yes / 50% no / 13% don't know), & decided to respond by challenging Keir to hold Rishi's non-alcoholic beer as he introduces a policy (arbitrarily bringing mandatory national service back) that, when most recently polled, recorded voters over 65 as no better than evenly split (September 2023: 46% support / 46% opposed / 8% don't know). What a hilarious split-screen contrast of life & death in politics.

[brucejoel99]

Anyway, here's a summary of the next month of debate on this topic:

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1794485050907447599

[brucejoel99]

Tania Mathias, who won Twickenham off of Vince Cable in the Lib Dem apocalypse of 2015 only to lose it back to him in the snap 2017 general election, now T-May's favored Maidenhead successor:

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1794502132470870075

[brucejoel99]

They're trying to lose, aren't they?

Honestly seems that way, doesn't it? Calling the election on a lark when the party is unprepared in over 200 constituencies. Blair-ing "Things Can Only Get Better" over his election call while he was busy getting drenched head-to-toe by heavy rain because No. 10 apparently forgot the concept of an indoor speech after COVID. His Welsh football mistake. Docking the sinking ship at the Titanic Quarter in Belfast because the Tory just had to go on a 4-nation tour like Nixon went to Hawaii in 1960. Trusting Gove to not retire. One-up'ing a tepidly unpopular Starmer announcement by announcing certifiably insane policy. If he's a Labour mole playing the long game, I'm not sure what he should've done any differently to kick the campaign off. I'm just sayin', if we never actually ruled out Truss being a secret Lib Dem mole solely intent on taking the Tories down, maybe we can't rule out a guy who was 16 in 1997 being a secret Blair fanboy either

[brucejoel99]

https://torymanifesto.org.uk/

This is brutal

Mr. President, there's a 2nd parody Tory manifesto website: https://www.conservativemanifesto.org.uk/

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/WhoTargetsMe/status/1794689116862656896https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1795059856446980240

I understand the anger towards Sunak who has damaged the Party almost beyond repair and all but guaranteed the majority of his MPs will lose their job next month.

But it's hard to muster much sympathy given that none of this would have happened without the complicity of a majority of the Party & what is now unfolding was entirely predictable- indeed predicted.

The hope is that when Sunak disappears off to California in a few weeks there are at least some decent MPs left around which to rebuild 🤞🙏🤞

Meanwhile, North of Hadrian's Wall:

https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1795017247330545986

[brucejoel99]

Please end up being LOTO:

https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1795113386415423770

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1795119365844517293

[brucejoel99]

Andy Street won't run for Parliament:

https://x.com/andy4wm/status/1795160893208019344

"I want an executive leadership role, it's quite literally the only way in which I could be of public service, which is why I won't stand to be a Tory MP & potential Leader of the Opposition/Prime Minister-in-waiting." The Liberal Party of 1922 is truly sending its regards from beyond the grave.

Is Sunak himself in a safe seat? Any takes on his future? I'm not sure he goes back to become a backbencher. He more seems like someone who would go into the private sector and make a fortune.

Rishi is the MP for Richmond (Yorks), a wealthy rural constituency that's one of the safest Tory seats in the country: it's the former seat of ex-party grandee Lord Hague, it has literally never been held by Labour, it's been a Tory stronghold since the early 20th century, it's presumably in the top 80 seats that one could reasonably expect to remain Tory even if they genuinely win no more than 80 seats, & yet, a 2-month-old MRP poll suggests that Sunak could lose it, given a shaky lead in the new boundary-changed Richmond & Northallerton constituency of just 2.4%.

Is Sunak himself in a safe seat?

Yes: generally prosperous countryside and small towns with a significant military element (one of its largest settlements is Catterick Garrison). It was nearly lost in the 1989 by-election which first sent William Hague to Parliament -- indeed if it hadn't been for the Lib Dem/SDP split it presumably would have been -- but losing it in a General Election would be spectacular.

I believe the most recent similarity is still John Howard losing his seat in 2007, although his Bennelong seat had become increasingly marginal over the 30+ years he represented it, whereas for the UK, Sunak losing would undoubtedly be the new Portillo moment to crown them all; it may even justify renaming it the Rishi moment. "Were you still up for Sunak?"

Any takes on his future? I'm not sure he goes back to become a backbencher. He more seems like someone who would go into the private sector and make a fortune.

Yes, that's what a lot of people seem to think. (Hence why Peston asked him that question.)

Supposedly supporting this further is that the 4th of July is a rather ideal date if you're looking to get the family moved back to Stanford in time for the start of the new school year in late Aug.

[brucejoel99]

Maybe more of a question for the THIGMOO thread, but curious if there's a sense of who is getting parachuted in (beyond the Morgan McSweeney rumours), now we're under GE rules, and the NEC can basically do what it wants in selections?

Rachel Reeves into No. 10 circa summer-autumn 2030

[brucejoel99]

🦀

https://twitter.com/MarwanData/status/1795186272954196368

[brucejoel99]

"Kwarteng drank champagne with bankers to celebrate mini-Budget"

https://twitter.com/thattimwalker/status/1795571297403236611