United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[brucejoel99]

So apparently Sunak is taking a “day off” from the campaign trail tomorrow.

Seems like you are getting your wish:

The Tory GE campaign next year is gonna be some of the most desperate and embarrassing stuff of all time.

https://twitter.com/MartinConcagh/status/1794127357365596235

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1794256122527813738

Tory surge!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Labor wins in a landslide, any chance of the UK rejoining the EU?

[TheTide]

If Labor wins in a landslide, any chance of the UK rejoining the EU?

I doubt the results of the Australian election would have any impact on the UK's relationship with the EU.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1794416813750821078

[Torrain]

If Labor wins in a landslide, any chance of the UK rejoining the EU?

No government, particularly not a first-term one, wants to reopen that can of worms. Possible Labour strikes a closer trade deal and signs up to some EU rules in return for fixes on Northern Ireland and trade.

But the odds of us holding a referendum in the next decade are vanishingly slim. Even the Lib Dems have accepted that fence-sitting is a better place to be electorally, focusing on localism rather than being good Europeans.

[President Johnson]

According to Wikipedia, the Tories are going into this election with 346 seats, down nearly 20 from the 365 they won in 2019. Has any British government lost more seats over the duration of a single term?

[Sol]

Is there a good equivalent to the electoral college calculator for Britain, except with constituencies?

[Continential]

Is there a good equivalent to the electoral college calculator for Britain, except with constituencies?

https://yapms.com/app/gbr/commons/2024/blank could work.

[CumbrianLefty]

The obsession with Brand Rishi and the excitement a lot of centre-right commentators have over him (he can do an excel sheet!) has really ignored the fact he is a lousy campaigner; he was pretty terrible in the 2022 Leadership race; forgotten now but he made a big pious point of saying 'we can't afford tax cuts' and then pivoted to tax cuts when he realised he was losing. He also kept doing a weird thing about 'protecting our women'... and well we all see how he was during the locals.

The thing that would worry me if I was a Tory MP is that this was planned; they have know for a month or so they were going for July and they decided one of there last big announcements as a Government would be around gender guidance to schools!

Is that so? It was widely reported the week after the local elections that Number 10 actually made a point of telling the party any summer election was OFF and they could make plans accordingly.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1794443322641047575

[Compuzled_One]

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1794443322641047575

That's reversible with a Truman level campaign.

Of course, Sunak isn't running one.

[Compuzled_One]

The canada election comparison comes to my mind is the Liberal one where they accidentally assaulted a teenager, the PM lost his cool with literal preteens and a cabinet minister poked a farmer calling him fat.

Gosh which election was that?

I assume the 1957 one, but I can't find anything on that.

[Torrain]

According to Wikipedia, the Tories are going into this election with 346 seats, down nearly 20 from the 365 they won in 2019. Has any British government lost more seats over the duration of a single term?

Tories lost 19, and Labour 20 in the previous parliament. But the 2017-19 parliament is an aberration in a lot of ways.

It’s worth noting that they’ve actually lost 21 MPs this session - but won one back in the Hartlepool by-election, and then won a defector from the SNP (still one of the wilder moments from last year).

[CumbrianLefty]

Lisa Cameron is not standing now under her new colours, presumably.

[Torrain]

Lisa Cameron is not standing now under her new colours, presumably.

Aye - she announced her retirement along with the defection, a bit like Poulter and Elphicke.

Probably a relief to the Scottish Tories - leaves them with one less seat to work in (EK has always been a straight SNP-Lab flight, of course) and avoids awkward questions about her current position on the constitution.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is no real news on the polling front to speak of. Much the same patterns as before the election was called. That isn't terribly unusual so early, but isn't (obviously) what the government will have hoped for.

[kyc0705]

I'd assume that any substantial movement to the Tories would be coupled with a decline in the Reform vote.

[brucejoel99]

Under UK rules, can Sunak remain PM until 4 July but the Tories presenting another PM candidate for the election?

Nothing standing in the way, theoretically. The Liberal Party pulled this stunt a couple of times. Most notably, Gladstone resigned the leadership, leaving the party with a Commons and Lords leader, but no *party leader*, from 1875-1880, and then took the leadership back after the party won an election in that state.

Sunak is PM until he resigns, and advises Charles to appoint someone who can command the confidence of the Commons. The reason it won’t happen is that it hasn’t happened in the post-war era, is a bit of a fiddle with the party constitution (which assured members a vote on their leader) and will only cause the Tories more trouble.

[...]

After dissolution, Sunak or whoever the Cabinet designates, remains PM until July 5th, the Conservatives won't have a leader until after the election.

If the Conservatives fail to elect any MP ( given their dire straits why not ?) they won't have a leader, according to their rules it has to be an MP not a Lord.

Hmm, right... So no chance of happening what is quite common in other European countries, where the incumbent PM remains as caretaker but the party in power presents another candidate. Plus, yeah, there is no time for this kind of process, 40 days until election day.

This won't happen but I, for one, will laugh my ass off to death if they import this move from the Continent for the sake of pinning the end of 14 years on David Cameron (something something broken clock):

https://twitter.com/carolvorders/status/1794428466206511613

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1794416813750821078

The number has grown from around 90 when the election was called.

On a practical note if let say the Conservatives are missing 200 candidates, that would impact their popular vote share as they would be leaving 1/3rd of the seats uncontested.

Also the few conservatives might vote LD or Reform in the abscence of a Conservative candidate.

But the Conservatives struggling to find anyone is a like fringe party that's getting 2%, not 22%.

[Oryxslayer]

It will be hilarious if the Conservative's opt for the "imagine your favorite PM/LotO" strategy that has been in the back of my mind since the Boris rumors were posted. Flood the media with Cameron, Sunak, Boris, maybe increase the campaign profile of Mordaunt and some others as well. Try to hit the electorate - or at least enough former supporters - with the idea that the one they like/have nostalgia for may be up next.

Of course the strategy is double edged, and there is a big potential downside. Lacking a true leading personality puts the party into greater focus, and the party is the real source of voter disapproval right now.

[oldtimer]

The obsession with Brand Rishi and the excitement a lot of centre-right commentators have over him (he can do an excel sheet!) has really ignored the fact he is a lousy campaigner; he was pretty terrible in the 2022 Leadership race; forgotten now but he made a big pious point of saying 'we can't afford tax cuts' and then pivoted to tax cuts when he realised he was losing. He also kept doing a weird thing about 'protecting our women'... and well we all see how he was during the locals.

The thing that would worry me if I was a Tory MP is that this was planned; they have know for a month or so they were going for July and they decided one of there last big announcements as a Government would be around gender guidance to schools!

Is that so? It was widely reported the week after the local elections that Number 10 actually made a point of telling the party any summer election was OFF and they could make plans accordingly.

The 2 prevailing theories are:

A. Sunak did what Boris failed to do, call an election before Graham Brady called the Palace to inform them that Sunak was out.

B. Sunak wanted to return to his California Mansion in time for the 4th July celebrations.

I'm leaning on theory A. , because he literaly was running in the rain to announce it like a speed race.

[Joe Republic]

On a practical note if let say the Conservatives are missing 200 candidates, that would impact their popular vote share as they would be leaving 1/3rd of the seats uncontested.

Also the few conservatives might vote LD or Reform in the abscence of a Conservative candidate.

That is very much not going to happen.

[Oryxslayer]

On a practical note if let say the Conservatives are missing 200 candidates, that would impact their popular vote share as they would be leaving 1/3rd of the seats uncontested.

Also the few conservatives might vote LD or Reform in the abscence of a Conservative candidate.

That is very much not going to happen.

Like what happens always, there will be local councilors willing to improve their internal standing by running doomed campaigns for safe Labour seats. The no-hope's are a majority of what's outstanding for all 3 major players.

The bigger issue for the Tories are late retirements opening safe seats that other incumbent MPs may want to run to. And even if they are forbidden from jumping seats, the party still needs to actually do some vetting for a candidate that will be joining the benches. Doing that in a week without letting in the chaff will be the difficult part.

[oldtimer]

On a practical note if let say the Conservatives are missing 200 candidates, that would impact their popular vote share as they would be leaving 1/3rd of the seats uncontested.

Also the few conservatives might vote LD or Reform in the abscence of a Conservative candidate.

That is very much not going to happen.

True, they might vote Labour to make it unanimous.

On a serious note all this has a LD 2015 vibe of disintegration and I expect "Hat Eating".