Congressional Leadership Megathread - McCarthy elected Speaker after 15 ballots, 4 days

[brucejoel99]

Fitzpatrick tellingly said this earlier:

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1592589354190475283

[brucejoel99]

Leadership will now be Stenyless:

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1593297881045180417

[brucejoel99]

The torch is being passed:

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1593299178381135873

[brucejoel99]

SNIP

Presently, Gaetz, Biggs, Good, and Rosendale have all expressed varying levels of dissatisfaction with McCarthy. That right there is likely enough to sink him, which they know. We are currently at McCarthy trying to woo these guys back on board stage of negotiations (See Hunter Biden) before they say they would only support Scalise or worse - one of their own.

What we will have to see about is if said bending over backward causes those on the other side of the party to break. Once again, they don't need to be true moderates, just power-hungry non-radicals who want all the committee chairs, speaker seat, and are willing to promise the dems that the ship will remain stable.

Assuming Republicans win CA-22 and CA-13, those four defections would put McCarthy at 218 - which is the bare minimum needed.

Of course, this is assuming that Good/Rosendale/Biggs/Gaetz vote present, or against McCarthy. If they don't vote at all, then the threshold for the speakership is 216, which McCarthy would be above.

Of course if they're demanding concessions, my assumption would be that they're threatening to actually sink him rather than abstain as a protest.

No chance that you get moderate Rs to back Jeffries, but I think Pelosi could convince all the Dems to vote for a "compromise" Speaker. Question becomes, who are the 5 moderate Rs to vote with the Dems? And does Gatez' team cave and pick McCarthy to avoid Speaker Don Bacon/Henry Ceullar/Josh Gottheimer?

Gottheimer and Cuellar are Dems, so I think they’re out. It would almost certainly have to be a Republican unless those voting for a coalition are fine with losing in two years.

But who?

Bacon or Newhouse or Fitzpatrick or Mace or Chris Smith or…

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/olivia_beavers/status/1595091448269078531

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/saletan/status/1596882139596849154

[brucejoel99]

C'mon, 212+Newhouse+Valadao+Bacon+Fitzpatrick+Mace+Kean, c'mon:

https://twitter.com/mzanona/status/1597653186093146112

[brucejoel99]

How many ballots of "Jeffries 212, McCarthy 209, Trump 13" do we suffer through to get an Alaskan-style coalition?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1598681000116162562

Another faction emerges.

List includes: Valadao CA-22, Obernolte CA-23, Kim CA-40, Steel CA-45, Diaz-Balart FL-26, Salazar FL-27, Gimenez FL-28, Stauber MN-08, Amodei NV-02, Bill Johnson OH-06, Turner OH-10, Joyce OH-14, Chavez-DeRemer OR-06, Kean NJ-07, Garbarino NY-02, Malliotakis NY-11, Lawler NY-17, Molinaro NY-19, Burgess TX-26, Moore UT-01, and Curtis UT-03.

We see a legacy Ohio grouping from the days when these type of Republicans ruled the state, a anti-Radical Mormon grouping, a Cuban grouping, and a swing-seat grouping that overlaps with NYC media market and Jungle Primary grouping.

Hmm, sounds a bit familiar:

Like a 'IRC' doesn't need to be made up of moderates. Just non-radicals who seize the moment to put themselves at the heads of committees via Dem votes.

We are currently at McCarthy trying to woo [Gaetz & Co.] back on board stage of negotiations (See Hunter Biden) before they say they would only support Scalise or worse - one of their own.

What we will have to see about is if said bending over backward causes those on the other side of the party to break. Once again, they don't need to be true moderates, just power-hungry non-radicals who want all the committee chairs, speaker seat, and are willing to promise the dems that the ship will remain stable.

[brucejoel99]

Lmaooo but hey, 10 is 10, & 10's more than enough:

https://twitter.com/MickMulvaney/status/1598734061060517888

[brucejoel99]

Is there any chance this is all bluster and the GOP falls in line behind McCarthy as the new year approaches? Or is a contested ballot pretty much a foregone conclusion?

We're probably ultimately dealing with a 2015-style negotiated settlement of some sort among the Republicans; whether that's McCarthy giving the FC everything they want, stepping down for Scalise/Stefanik, or something else, who knows? The "probably" is italicized for a reason, though, because if just 5 are digged-in no matter what, then - short of Dems unilaterally disarming & giving the GOP Conference's choice a "present" or 2 - the math isn't there for a Speaker 'til somebody blinks (& hopefully it's enough moderates who blink first to form an Alaskan-style "good governance, strong & stable economy, unrocked boat" coalition).

[brucejoel99]

Ohhh, let's f**king go:

https://twitter.com/scottwongdc/status/1600164208208859144

[brucejoel99]

Anyway, in all seriousness, I think "McCarthy fails on the first few votes, withdraws his name, Freedom Caucus celebrates taking a scalp and lets Steve Scalise get elected unanimously by Rs as Speaker" is a really credible scenario. The Freedom Caucus gets a scalp to hang on the wall and Scalise is generally popular with all House Rs and literally took a bullet for the cause.

What happens if McCarthy refuses to withdraw his name?