As I've been writing this YouGov have released their latest ITV Wales/Cardiff Uni poll from 16-19 March, showing things may be closer than expected:
Constituency:
Labour 32%
Conservative: 30%
Plaid Cymru: 23%
Lib Dem: 5%
Reform UK: 3%
Green: 2%
Others: 5% (presumably including Abolish)
List:
Labour: 31%
Conservative: 28%
Plaid Cymru: 22%
Abolish: 7%
Lib Dem: 4%
Green: 3%
Others: 4% (presumably including Reform UK)
Tory vaccination bump?
Despite the narrowing polls it's still likely that Labour will be the largest party and the main question is what flavour of Labour government will be formed. The Lib Dems' hopes will probably rest on trying to retain their sole constituency seat in Brecon and Radnorshire, although Kirsty Williams is stepping down. A coalition may be needed with Plaid who seem set for some modest gains but with no major breakthrough in sight. And although there have been a number of headlines recently about the gradual increase in support for independence, events of the past year have hardened opinions at the other end of the constitutional spectrum as well and Abolish could pick up a few list seats.
Yeah, don't let it be forgotten that Welsh Labour have won every single major election in Wales for nearly a century now (& even in 2017, the Tories were all hyped-up by some early polling, only to then lose seats in the actual election). 'Til the actual results are in, I have no reason to believe that they won't do so again.
