Trump 2nd Impeachment News/Talk Megathread

[brucejoel99]

Yeah....something tells me Trump will not be president come this time next week.

Don't jinx it.

[brucejoel99]

I feel like Elaine Chao's resignation has to be considered at least a subtle indication of McConnell's blessing for impeachment/conviction, given that her resignation is what seems to have made people realize that the 25th isn't gonna be viable so impeachment/conviction may be necessary. If they thought the 25th was viable, then she'd be staying.

[brucejoel99]

How would impeachment actually work with this little time left? The House just votes without debate and the senate debates just a day or two before taking a vote?

A majority of the House votes to waive their standing rules & immediately proceed to an impeachment vote. Impeached.

A majority of the Senate (with McConnell's support) votes to waive their impeachment trial rules & immediately proceed to a conviction vote. 2/3rds (66 out of 99 Senators) vote to convict, & he's removed.

McConnell then puts a vote on the floor to disqualify him from federal office going forward. A majority supports it, & he's disqualified.

Theoretically, it could all be done in a day.

[brucejoel99]

We should be at over 200 reps by now, I am kind of disappointed in Democratic reps. The time for action is now, while this event is still fresh on voter's minds.

To be fair, many are probably just waiting 'til the end of the day to show that they gave the Cabinet time to act responsibly. If they don't, though, then Congress will step in.

[brucejoel99]

How soon can Pelosi reconvene the House & put articles on the floor? Tonight?

[brucejoel99]

Then do it. What’s taking them so long?

They're not even in session at the moment. Pelosi has to recall the House & give time for any members who may have left town this morning to come back. The articles that have been circulating among the Judiciary Democrats have to actually be introduced, & procedural steps have to be taken to bypass committee, put it directly on the floor, then vote.

Hence the 48-hour timeline reported by CNN earlier.

[brucejoel99]

Trump WILL be impeached; as has been noted, conviction is less certain -- but a lot more likely than it was in the first impeachment.  If Trump was smart (which he's not), he'd be trying to negotiate a deal to resign in exchange for a pardon from Trump.

Pence, but yes.

[brucejoel99]

The video he just put out practically screams "look, I'm denouncing them. Please don't impeach/convict & remove me."

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1347334804052844550

[brucejoel99]

Is there enough time for the process of conviction?

If McConnell's actually on board this time, then yes. He'll waive any & every rule necessary, if need be.

[brucejoel99]

Is there enough time for the process of conviction?

If McConnell's actually on board this time, then yes. He'll waive any & every rule necessary, if need be.

That's a huge If, though.

Yes, but granted, it's nowhere near as huge an if as it was a year ago.

[brucejoel99]

I think the "concession" video will be enough for sufficient Senate Republicans to wield as an excuse to oppose impeachment - and even without it, they would have found another excuse anyway -, so I don't really see the Senate coming even close to the conviction threshold.

Even after all that's happened, they'll still lack the necessary courage to act.

Yeah, even though this isn't an actual concession, it definitely feels like a functional one in order to ensure that he doesn't get convicted & removed.

[brucejoel99]

I don't think that this would even be happening if Schumer & Pelosi didn't think that Mitch & 17 other Republicans were on board. Last time was but a mere statement. This time, they think it's possible.

[brucejoel99]

This is probably Shelby's last term, so I don't see why he wouldn't vote to convict.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/kaylatausche/status/1347351604115238912
https://twitter.com/kaylatausche/status/1347352305860026368
https://twitter.com/kaylatausche/status/1347352937073418244
https://twitter.com/kaylatausche/status/1347354365665943552

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1347378577214468098

[brucejoel99]

The caucus needs to get their timetables straight - Lieu says impeachment articles will be introduced on Monday, but Omar says he'll be impeached tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/tedlieu/status/1347378498458054658
https://twitter.com/IlhanMN/status/1347386742085705728

[brucejoel99]

What would the timetable for an impeachment be at this point? I heard Congress won't be back in session until January 19th, but obviously they'd need to convene before them to vote on articles, right?

Note that there's no requirement that the process be finished before Joe Biden takes office; when William Belknap was impeached as Secretary of War in 1876, he resigned but was nonetheless tried and acquitted by the Senate. This would not necessarily be a futile gesture, since conviction could (and presumably would) be accompanied by a lifetime ban from holding federal office.

Alcee Hastings obviously didn't get a ban on holding federal office.

Alcee Hastings didn't attempt to overthrow the federal government.

[brucejoel99]

Political nerds salivate at the thought of a teeny-tiny Pence term. "The shortest Presidential term in history, don't you know!" Look at him, all nestled in between Trump and Biden on that Wikipedia list of presidents! Mike Pence, 46th POTUS, in office for, what was it, nine days? Does he get a Presidential library? Does he 'join the club'? Out of office, does Pence serve as a sort of stand-in for the four lost years under Trump, whom many would rather forget?

I must admit that this does play a role in my strong desire for immediate impeachment, plus it will be fun to watch everyone scramble to get rid of their Biden 46 merch.

Get rid of it? More like "get as much Biden 46 merch as they can so they can profit off selling it as rare, mint-condition collectors' items 10 years from now."

[brucejoel99]

Political nerds salivate at the thought of a teeny-tiny Pence term. "The shortest Presidential term in history, don't you know!" Look at him, all nestled in between Trump and Biden on that Wikipedia list of presidents! Mike Pence, 46th POTUS, in office for, what was it, nine days? Does he get a Presidential library? Does he 'join the club'? Out of office, does Pence serve as a sort of stand-in for the four lost years under Trump, whom many would rather forget?

Ok, you got me. About 5% of me wants Trump removed just so we can beat Harrison's record.

If it weren't for the gravity of the situation, I would be amused that our second <1 year term goes to ... another former Indiana governor. If you need an awful politician to be president for too short a time to do much real harm, call us!

Pence would actually be the 3rd, as the 2nd was James Garfield. He would still be the 2nd President with a <1 month term in office, though.

[brucejoel99]

Let's. F**king. Go.

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1347603264871800832

[brucejoel99]

Does McConnell have the power to make the vote to convict a secret ballot, and might he be inclined to do so? I recall the possibility was discussed during the first impeachment, but was shot down fairly quickly. Could this time be different?

He can if he has the support of 80 other Senators to do so. Otherwise, they have to hold a recorded vote.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1347613770584109056

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1347604326525644801?s=19

The new president just came out in support of impeachment.

When/where was this?

Let's. F**king. Go.

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1347603264871800832

[brucejoel99]

Does McConnell have the power to make the vote to convict a secret ballot, and might he be inclined to do so? I recall the possibility was discussed during the first impeachment, but was shot down fairly quickly. Could this time be different?

It would be completely inappropriate to have congressional votes done by secret ballot, people need to be able to hold their leaders accountable. Changing it once for political expediency would set a terrible precedent going forward, rules are meant to be followed and for good reason.

One question-can Congress ban Trump from running again once his term has expired?

After conviction, the Senate could disqualify him from holding federal office again in the future by a simple majority vote.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/WSJPolitics/status/1347607532127350785