Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[brucejoel99]

The main question I have is why Fudge even wanted to be Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the first place.

She didn’t. She wanted Agriculture and she spoke publicly about how she thinks black Cabinet members are often shunted to HUD.

To be fair, it would quite odd for a Congresswoman from a clearly entirely urban district to become Secretary of Agriculture. I suppose the Democrats are rather lacking in districts that include substantial amounts of farmland these days, but if there was going to be a black Congressperson who became Secretary of Agriculture, surely it would be someone like Bennie Thompson or Terri Sewell who actually represents a lot of farmers (though I don't think either of them in particular has focused much on agricultural issues).

Perhaps it would've been odd at first glance, but I think that would've just been an unfortunate casualty of the quasi-misnomer of the title that is "Secretary of Agriculture" moreso than anything else, given that "Agriculture" invokes rural farming, even though 80% of the Department's focus is nutrition assistance (e.g., SNAP) & she was literally the Chair of the Agriculture Subcommittee on Nutrition, Oversight, & Department Operations when she was still back in the House.

[brucejoel99]

Still don't get why folks on Atlas seem to care about this race so much

Yes, why would people on a site called "Talk Elections" be interested in an upcoming election?

This isn’t even the only upcoming House special in Ohio, much less the country.  It doesn’t seem like a very competitive primary and yet you don’t see 19 pages of discussion for the primary elections in the others.

the primary is also competitive though

Is it though?  I’d argue the specials for Hastings’ and even Stivers’ seats are probably a lot more competitive at this point.

Given Turner now calling Brown out by name, I think it is

Yeah, I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear that she has some internals that scared her into going more negative.

[brucejoel99]

Apologies for the inane and predictable comment, but the genuinely most ridiculous thing is that we're still talking about the primary this late in the year.

Wasn't there a law that prevented DeWine from scheduling the special election earlier? If it weren't for that, this seat would have been filled by now.

There was, yes: by the time Fudge resigned from the House upon her confirmation to the Cabinet, the deadline to schedule a special primary/general for May/Aug. had already passed, & the next earliest opportunity for holding them was Aug./Nov.

[brucejoel99]

LMAO one Brown internal showing Brown losing by 7 points and suddenly everyone's ready to make this a tossup. I mean, come on, guys, Turner and Brown aren't even the only candidates in the race, Turner doesn't necessarily need to reach 50% to win. If a Brown internal not only can't get her ahead but can't even get her within 5 points I think it's pretty clear who the frontrunner is. Frankly, this makes me more confident Turner will win, if anything.

Probably cuz the last poll had Brown down by like 30 lmao, it's not unwarranted to think of this race as being closer than previously imagined.

Yeah, it frankly should've been obvious that Turner was never gonna win this thing by 30+ once the local party started to throw their whole weight behind Brown in order to try & stop Turner. Say what can be said about mUh EsTaBlIsHmEnT, but they're not exactly ones to just stand by & let a winnable seat get taken from them without a fight. It was always gonna narrow, but even though this Brown internal shows that she obviously has some momentum compared to even just last month, when Turner's internal had this race at 50-15, the fact that it's a Brown internal that still has her down by 7 after early voting has already started should still be considered a relatively good sign for Turner going into the home-stretch.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1420007978711855109?s=19

Honestly, how hard would it have been for Ohio Dems to find a candidate who wasn't either of these two? Turner's better but neither of these candidates are good.

Dear god, is it too late to run Marcia Fudge's mom in this race? Asking for my friends in OH-11...

[brucejoel99]

I think I'm more annoyed by the constant "I hate both the candidates~~~!!!!!!" people in here. False equivalency is just the worst. Stop it.

You don't have to think both candidates are exactly the same to be annoyed by both of them.

I think both candidates are trash. Hopefully somebody else takes the win.

Not to mention, treating such discourse in here as if it's one based on a false equivalency - while not technically &/or definitionally wrong - is still a bit ridiculous given that nobody's actually acting as if they're on the same level of sh*ttiness. From my point of view, Shontel is like ordering from a restaurant where the food is overpriced & disappointing: sure, she sucks, but she's probably not gonna ruin more than your night, whereas Nina is like ordering from a restaurant that - to invoke Nina's rhetoric here - serves you a plate of human sh*t & still tries to make you pay for it: she also sucks, but on a comparatively larger scale. From others' point of view, the roles can obviously be reversed. The point is that even those who merely admit that they're annoyed by both candidates aren't actually going so far as to act as if they're equally bad.

[brucejoel99]

I will now accept my accolades:

Turner's the very clear front-runner.

I wouldn't go that far yet. She's got the national name, yes, but she's a big progressive in a district that hasn't been all that progressive to date. She's also gonna be going up against whomever Fudge & the Cuyahoga Democratic Party put their support behind, & that sure as hell won't be Turner. That's carried a TON of weight in this district before. This'll certainly be a fascinating & interesting primary to watch, though, but Turner definitely has an uphill battle in it.

[brucejoel99]

The fact that Turner went from a 35-point lead in her own polls to outright losing this race is just incredible.

It's worse than that: the fact that Turner went from as high as a 32-point lead in her opponent's internals to outright losing - & rather handily at that - is what's perhaps most incredible about all of this here.

[brucejoel99]

THANK YOU MR. PRESIDENT!

https://twitter.com/newmonney/status/1422743242181840896

Nothing but respect for MY President!

[brucejoel99]

Nina Turner is antisemitic

What in the absolute f**k is "[j]ust like South Carolina, corporate Dems turned out white voters to win" even supposed to mean!? Aside from the fact that Biden won the 2020 SC primary's Black vote (which represented 56% of that primary's voting population) in more of an absolute landslide than he won the white vote thereof (which represented just 40% of the SC primary's turn-out), the implication that the votes of "white affluent shaker heights" voters - a.k.a. Jews, because we just so happen to always be the easiest scapegoats to blame for literally anything, don't we? - or even just "white voters" should somehow count for less than other voters' votes is seriously f**ked up beyond any measure of f**ked-up'd-ness.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/berniesanders/status/1424067468750954499?s=21

Really irresponsible tweet from Bernie

At least it's not BS about "white affluent shaker heights" voters. I hate that Bernie allows that sh*t to stand sometimes.

[brucejoel99]

This primary is a sad indictment of the democratic party. "You criticize us, we'll use whatever dirty tactics to make sure you never get into power". Biden was a bowl of sh**t.

No, Nina Turner was just a very awful candidate, and a terrible fit for the district.

She was one of the best candidates to run for office in the last 40 years

[brucejoel99]

Well, there may not really be 4K uncounted:

https://twitter.com/GalenMetzger1/status/1565070252471267328

Wow, how convenient. Now implying anything, just saying. 🤔

[brucejoel99]

Holy sh*t