2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[brucejoel99]

I can't believe he would show himself like this. He looks awful. Wow. I never thought I'd see him like this.

Weren't there photos of Romney and Clinton going viral on the net that showed how devastated and shabby they looked after admitting their defeat?

I remember the Romney one where he was at a gas station.

I don't recall the Clinton one. 

It was her hiking in the woods of Chappaqua.

[brucejoel99]

I can't believe he would show himself like this. He looks awful. Wow. I never thought I'd see him like this.

Weren't there photos of Romney and Clinton going viral on the net that showed how devastated and shabby they looked after admitting their defeat?

I remember the Romney one where he was at a gas station.

I don't recall the Clinton one.  

It was her hiking in the woods of Chappaqua.

Yeah, the joke was her being like big foot. People would go into the woods and try to take pictures of her. It was a pretty crappy thing to do tbh.

The SNL skit about it was pretty funny, though:

[brucejoel99]

I have to imagine that this is a wink-wink for blocking the transition:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1328057941203836930

[brucejoel99]

Perfect timing from Dave here, if I do say so myself:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328018684980367367
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328021429795827714

[brucejoel99]

Murphy should be sued, because what she is doing is completely unacceptable.

Why? Serious question. The Tweet above to which you were responding seems like the most innocuous thing I've ever read in this thread.

Not DrScholl but I shared the tweet because it's patently obvious that Trump would neither know nor care about Emily Murphy - let alone share a tweet of hers with the caption "Good job!" - were it not for her blocking the Biden transition.

[brucejoel99]

National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien:

"If the Biden-Harris ticket is determined to be the winner — and, obviously, things look that way now — we'll have a very professional transition with the national security council, no doubt about it."

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/16/935374786/national-security-adviser-says-it-looks-like-biden-has-won-the-election

Oh, you think, Robert?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/williamlegate/status/1328750442977914881
Passing this kind of stuff as "news" is flat-out dangerous.

It’s the 410 Authoritarian NUT map! “Secret server abroad” and Trump winning 410 electoral votes puts a whole new meaning in the “Authoritarian.”

The map lol: (minute 0:30)
https://twitter.com/williamlegate/status/1328760390428319744

Trump winning California but losing Colorado... yeah sure, whatever.

Clearly it was made by some OAN staffer on the 270 to win interactive map.

What even is a "secret server abroad"

Ask Congressman Gohmert, he's your (home) state's fault

[brucejoel99]

Well, this isn't good:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1328852354049957888

[brucejoel99]

Bush vs. Gore established that any recount in a statewide election must be statewide to guarantee equal protection under the law. LOL.

Huh.  So recounts can't be limited to singular counties?

Make Politics Boring Again is wrong, Bush v. Gore didn't explicitly establish that any recount in a statewide election must be statewide, but rather that the use of different standards of counting in different counties violates the Equal Protection Clause; so long as a partial recount is conducted using uniform manners (& in a timely manner), it would be constitutional.

[brucejoel99]

Bush vs. Gore established that any recount in a statewide election must be statewide to guarantee equal protection under the law. LOL.

Huh.  So recounts can't be limited to singular counties?

Make Politics Boring Again is wrong, Bush v. Gore didn't explicitly establish that any recount in a statewide election must be statewide, but rather that the use of different standards of counting in different counties violate the Equal Protection Clause; so long as a partial recount is conducted using uniform manners (& in a timely manner), it would be constitutional.

How does this work in practice though? Does that mean that if votes were tabulated by machine in the first round, they must be re-tabulated by machine in the second round? Otherwise, a hand recount in select counties would violate the equal method of counting provision?

All that matters is that the recount is conducted in a uniform manner; under the current precedent as it stands, what happened in the initial count is irrelevant.

[brucejoel99]

MAKE IT MAKE SENSE!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1329521771041726465

[brucejoel99]

I want to say - now that it’s official: I was wrong about Georgia.

May I be extra wrong on January 5th

As I did say “Biden has 5%, Osoff a 1% and Warnock 0%”

I mean, seeing that GA voted to the left of NC & FL, he clearly had a >5% chance there. Not to mention, you certainly said "fOoLs GoLd" a hell of a lot more times than you ever said "Biden has [a] 5% [chance]." But that's none of my business.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1329873958221582337

[brucejoel99]

Didn't Trump literally endorse Loeffler for the runoff?

Yes, but Collins actively helped try and have the mail votes tossed so now he's going to kiss his ass and possibly lose a senate seat in the process.

The incentive for which is presumably that this would well-position him to be the GOP frontrunner against Warnock in 2022.

[brucejoel99]

I just saw the official Arizona website, Biden won by 4,202 votes. Wow. That was a super close call. I think at this point all counties have certified their results.

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/18/0

Interesting.  What updated?  The recount threshold in AZ is 0.1% and we are very close to that now if these aren't the final results.  If this is final, it means GA voted left of AZ!

The recount threshold in AZ is 0.1% or 200 votes, whichever is smaller. In this case, we're obviously well past the point of the threshold being 200 votes, so we're good here.

[brucejoel99]

THE CERTIFYING DUTCHMAN!

Seriously, though, it's still unsettling that it came to this. God only knows what AVL would have done if Nessel hadn't threatened to #LockHimUp. (Literally God only knows; there's an entire theological question about to what extent He "knows" counterfactuals.)

Tbf, based on the Politico article about him, it doesn't seem like Nessel was at all a factor in his determination. He simply followed the letter of the law - which provided the board with a clear legal duty to certify the results of the election as shown by the returns that were given to them - because it was the right (not to mention, legally required) thing to do, which is a shocker for a modern-day Republican, I know.

[brucejoel99]

Weirdly enough NY certified even though a number of counties haven't actually certified their results yet

https://www.elections.ny.gov/2020ElectionResults.html

PA did the same thing too, IIRC.

[brucejoel99]

I don't like empty quoting* but we gotta get to 800 pages so just do something.
I am looking forward to the Electoral College vote tomorrow, which is actually today using Italian time. I doubt there will be any faithless electors.

*now that I've said that 100% chance this post will get empty quoted

Over/under on YE just doing what they did to the VP megathread & locking this after post #19,999 on pg. 799?

[brucejoel99]

Are you seriously just going to bump every single pre-election post from this thread that didn't pan out??

Give me a break. That stopped being funny like two weeks ago.

Not to mention, there's already a longstanding Forum Community thread dedicated to exquisitely aged posts such as these.

[brucejoel99]

What a f[inks]ing clown lol.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1341138408274595843
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1341138409092509696

Just your standard mobster talk, nothing to see here...

[brucejoel99]

He's lost the same election to Joe Biden so many times now, it's honestly incredible:

https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1368941080444612615

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323855032207450113

How exactly did the needle turn so quickly? IIRC it was favoring Trump before.

If I recall, it's that the results among Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia were too correlated in their model.  Thus, when Biden did poorly in Florida, that affected the needle in Georgia as well.  Georgia really was fairly de-coupled from the national environment, to an extent, which is also mentioned in the book Lucky, as the Biden campaign saw NC, FL, MI, PA, and WI as very correlated, but AZ and GA as less so. 

Precisely: it was interstate correlation factoring into the needle's algorithm. By the time at which FL was already all-but-done & NC's mail-ins were sufficiently more-than-decent for Trump/more-than-sh*tty for Biden, there was still basically no data available from GA, & given how FL & NC were looking for Trump, the needle's algorithm - in the absence of legitimate, hard data from GA - thought it reasonable that Trump's performance in GA would correlate with his performances in the other 2. As it turned out once the hard data from GA actually started pouring in, though, not so much.