Alternate/Future Supreme Courts

[brucejoel99]

The Supreme Court - Jan. 20th, 2033:
Chief Justice John Roberts (Conservative Swing, Aged 77, Appointed by W. Bush in 2005)
Associate Justice Clarence Thomas (Conservative, Aged 84, Appointed by H.W. Bush in 1991)
Associate Justice Elena Kagan (Liberal, Aged 72, Appointed by Obama in 2010)
Associate Justice Neil Gorsuch (Conservative, Aged 65, Appointed by Trump in 2017)
Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh (Conservative Swing, Aged 67, Appointed by Trump in 2018)
Associate Justice Amy Coney Barrett (Conservative, Aged 60, Appointed by Trump in 2020)
Associate Justice Leondra Kruger (Liberal, Aged 56, Appointed by Biden in 2021)*
Associate Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson (Liberal, Aged 62, Appointed by Biden in 2022)**
Associate Justice Candace Jackson-Akiwumi (Liberal, Aged 53, Appointed by Harris in 2030)***

* Replaced Justice Sotomayor upon her retirement.
** Replaced Justice Breyer upon his retirement.
*** Replaced Justice Alito upon his passing.

Roberts & Kavanaugh cast enough pivotal swing votes with the 3 liberals to prevent any court-packing momentum from seriously taking hold. Sotomayor retires from the Court this summer "out of an abundance of health-related caution" (it turns out that her having still yet to hire any clerks for the Oct. '21 term as of this post's publication was a hint after all), & Biden nominates Kruger to succeed her; she's confirmed in Aug. by a Senate vote of 52-48 (Collins & Murkowski both buck the GOP line), fulfilling Biden's pledge to appoint the 1st-ever Black female Supreme Court justice. Breyer retires next summer & is succeeded by his former law clerk, KBJ, who's confirmed by the same Senate vote of 52-48. Justice Alito suddenly passes away Scalia-style in early 2030, & although the Senate is a 55-49 Republican majority by this point (DC & PR had been admitted to the Union beforehand), Senate Majority Leader Thune - with the help of some gentle behind-the-scenes prodding from Roberts that's not publicly revealed for 30+ years - announces that the American people's 2028 mandate to let President Harris fill Supreme Court vacancies "for at least 2 years" still applies. Although there's some predictable FedSoc grumbling, CJA picks up just enough Republican support to get confirmed 52-52 - with VP Buttigieg obviously breaking the tie in her favor - before the Court's Oct. 2030 term starts. Harris goes on to lose her bid for re-election 2 years later, & following a 12-year Democratic hold on the White House, the Court on Jan. 20th, 2033, consists of a 5-4 "conservative" majority, albeit in quotations because Roberts - oftentimes with Kavanaugh in tow - is once again playing the pivotal swing role that he played for the 2 years between Kennedy's retirement & RBG's passing, & that Kennedy played for the 12 years between O'Connor's retirement & his own.

[brucejoel99]

The Supreme Court as of January 1, 2040:

Chief Justice: Amy Coney Barrett (Appointed to replace John Roberts by Nikki Haley in 2031)

Associate Justice: Kentaji Brown Jackson (Appointed by Joe Biden to replace Sonia Sotomayor in 2022)

Associate Justice: Kamala Harris (Appointed by Joe Biden to replace Elena Kagan in 2025)

Associate Justice: Barack Obama: (Appointed by Joe Biden to replace Clarence Thomas in 2023)

Associate Justice: Brett Kavanaugh

Associate Justice: Neil Gorsuch

Associate Justice: Josh Hawley (Appointed by Nikki Haley to replace Amy Coney Barrett in 2031)

Associate Justice: Samuel Alito

What happened to Breyer's seat?

[brucejoel99]

The Supreme Court as of January 1, 2040:

Chief Justice: Amy Coney Barrett (Appointed to replace John Roberts by Nikki Haley in 2031)

Associate Justice: Kentaji Brown Jackson (Appointed by Joe Biden to replace Sonia Sotomayor in 2022)

Associate Justice: Kamala Harris (Appointed by Joe Biden to replace Elena Kagan in 2025)

Associate Justice: Barack Obama: (Appointed by Joe Biden to replace Clarence Thomas in 2023)

Associate Justice: Brett Kavanaugh

Associate Justice: Neil Gorsuch

Associate Justice: Josh Hawley (Appointed by Nikki Haley to replace Eric Holder/Stephen Breyer in 2031)

Associate Justice: Samuel Alito

What happened to Breyer's seat?

Breyer retired in 2023, with Eric Holder being confirmed to fill the seat. Holder retired himself in late 2031, as part of a deal between President Haley and Senate Democrats and Senate Republicans Amy Coney Barrett was elevated to Chief Justice (which Haley wanted), Josh Hawley was appointed to the vacant Supreme Court seat, and Senate Republicans agreed not to stand in the way of a pending impeachment of Brett Kavanaugh (which House and Senate Democrats wanted.)

How does any of that mean - as your posts would imply - that there are only a Chief Justice (Barrett) & 7 Associates on Jan. 1st, 2040? Who's the missing 8th Associate?

[brucejoel99]

The Supreme Court - Jan. 20th, 2025 (POD: Hillary Wins):
Chief Justice John Roberts (Conservative, Aged 69, Appointed by W. Bush in 2005)
Associate Justice Clarence Thomas (Conservative, Aged 76, Appointed by H.W. Bush in 1991)
Associate Justice Sonia Sotomayor (Liberal, Aged 70, Appointed by Obama in 2009)
Associate Justice Elena Kagan (Liberal, Aged 64, Appointed by Obama in 2010)
Associate Justice Merrick Garland (Liberal, Aged 72, Appointed by Obama in 2016)*
Associate Justice Jane Kelly (Liberal, Aged 60, Appointed by H. Clinton in 2017)**
Associate Justice Sri Srinivasan (Liberal, Aged 57, Appointed by H. Clinton in 2018)***
Associate Justice Neil Gorsuch (Conservative, Aged 57, Appointed by Cotton in 2021)****
Associate Justice Amul Thapar (Conservative, Aged 55, Appointed by Cotton in 2022)*****

* Replaced Justice Scalia upon his passing.
** Replaced Justice Ginsburg upon her retirement.
*** Replaced Justice Breyer upon his retirement.
**** Replaced Justice Kennedy upon his retirement.
***** Replaced Justice Alito upon his retirement.

Hillary overshoots her real-life performance in 2016 by just 1%, resulting in her winning MI by 1.77% (~85K votes), WI by 1.23% (~37K votes), PA by 1.28% (~79K votes), & FL by 0.8% (~75K votes). The ripple effect sees McGinty beat Toomey by 0.61% (~37K votes), &... that's it: a Clinton presidency with a 51-49 Republican Senate. Despite Trump's clear overperformance relative to the polls, the presidential election is obviously written off by Republicans as having merely been lost due to his inherently - shall we say - being the disaster that he is. Nevertheless, having both lost 3 Senate seats & come within just ~15K votes (which is what Kander loses by in this scenario) of losing their majority status altogether, Senate Republicans concede the apparent writing on the wall that holding the vacant Supreme Court seat open for nearly a whole year did them no favors, & quickly move to confirm Garland - who'd obviously have the votes needed for confirmation - while they still can in the lame-duck before Hillary has the chance to take office & possibly withdraw the Garland nomination in favor of somebody who'd be younger & more liberal than him. He's confirmed 60-40, & in the aftermath of the Garland fiasco & the results thereof, RBG - who obviously expected Hillary to win & whose daughter publicly revealed following her passing that she wanted the 1st female President to name her successor - finally retires from the Court in the summer of 2017, & Hillary nominates another liberal woman in Jane Kelly to succeed her; she's confirmed in Aug. by a Senate vote of 57-43, with the support of all 49 Democrats & 8 Republicans. Breyer retires in the summer of 2018 & is succeeded by Sri Srinivasan, who's confirmed by another Senate vote of 57-43; the voting dynamics thereof would be similar to Kelly's confirmation with the exception of Kaine's appointed successor, who'd since lost the 2017 special to a Republican who nonetheless also goes on to vote in favor of Srinivasan's confirmation. With that, a liberal majority on the Court is secured for years to come, & not only does Roberts have no need to become as swingy as he did in real life, but Kennedy - as he did in real-life's OT 2017 - firmly rejoins the conservative wing for the remainder of his tenure on the Court. The butterfly effect results in there being no COVID pandemic in this scenario, & given there being no need for any type of rally-'round-the-flag effect around her as a result, Tom Cotton wins the 2020 election. Justice Kennedy soon retires in the summer of 2021, & the Republican Senate confirms Cotton's nomination of Kennedy's former clerk, Neil Gorsuch, to replace him by a party-line vote of 56-44, a party-line vote that repeats itself the next summer when Cotton nominates - at the behest of McConnell because KY - Amul Thapar to replace a retiring Alito in 2022. Despite there being a Cotton presidency, the Court still consists of a secure 5-4 liberal majority as of noon on Jan. 20th, 2025, when Cotton is sworn-in for his 2nd term.

[brucejoel99]

The Supreme Court - Jan. 20th, 2021 (POD: Kerry Wins):
Chief Justice Sonia Sotomayor (Liberal, Aged 66, Appointed by Kerry in 2005)*
Associate Justice Clarence Thomas (Conservative, Aged 72, Appointed by H.W. Bush in 1991)
Associate Justice Diane Wood (Liberal, Aged 70, Appointed by Kerry in 2006)**
Associate Justice Merrick Garland (Liberal, Aged 68, Appointed by Kerry in 2006)***
Associate Justice Jeffrey Sutton (Conservative, Aged 60, Appointed by McCain in 2013)****
Associate Justice Steven Colloton (Conservative, Aged 58, Appointed by Pawlenty in 2014)*****
Associate Justice Raymond Lohier (Liberal, Aged 55, Appointed by Obama in 2017)******
Associate Justice Stephanie Thacker (Liberal, Aged 55, Appointed by Obama in 2018)*******
Associate Justice Jacqueline Nguyen (Liberal, Aged 55, Appointed by Obama in 2020)********

* Nominated to replace Justice O'Connor; ultimately replaced Chief Justice Rehnquist upon his passing.
** Replaced Justice O'Connor upon her retirement.
*** Replaced Justice Souter upon his retirement.
**** Replaced Justice Scalia upon his retirement.
***** Replaced Justice Kennedy upon his retirement.
****** Replaced Justice Stevens upon his retirement.
******* Replaced Justice Breyer upon his retirement.
******** Replaced Justice Ginsburg upon her passing.

[brucejoel99]

SCOTUS - Mon., Oct. 2nd, 2034 (POD: From Nov. 2020 on, the Judicial Left Rolls a 20):
Chief Justice Kristen Clarke (Liberal, Aged 59, Appointed by Harris in 2030)****
Associate Justice Elena Kagan (Liberal, Aged 74, Appointed by Obama in 2010)
Associate Justice Neil Gorsuch (Conservative, Aged 67, Appointed by Trump in 2017)
Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh (Conservative, Aged 69, Appointed by Trump in 2018)
Associate Justice Amy Coney Barrett (Conservative, Aged 62, Appointed by Trump in 2020)
Associate Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson (Liberal, Aged 64, Appointed by Biden in 2022)*
Associate Justice Leondra Kruger (Liberal, Aged 58, Appointed by Biden in 2022)**
Associate Justice Kevin Newsom (Conservative, Aged 62, Appointed by Trump in 2025)***
Associate Justice Candace Jackson-Akiwumi (Liberal, Aged 55, Appointed by Harris in 2034)*****

* Replaced Justice Breyer upon his retirement.
** Replaced Justice Sotomayor upon her retirement.
*** Replaced Justice Alito upon his retirement.
**** Replaced Chief Justice Roberts upon his retirement.
***** Replaced Justice Thomas upon his passing.

Breyer announces his retirement this spring, as normal, & KBJ is confirmed so that she can be in place when his retirement takes effect over the summer. Once the Court rises for its summer recess, Sotomayor announces her own retirement, with Kruger being confirmed in the late summer so that she can be in place in time for the Court's return in Oct. Trump gets a 2nd non-consecutive term in 2024, although GOP legislative gains are otherwise minimal (& are eventually wiped-out, & then some, in 2026 & 2028); Justice Alito promptly retires, to be replaced by Judge Newsom of the 11th Circuit. Come the end of the decade, a 75-year-old Chief Justice Roberts, after serving for 25 years, decides it's time to hang up the robe & retires... under a Democratic President, because why not? It's John Roberts. He'd do that. Harris nominates D.C. Circuit judge (& former DOJ Civil Rights head) Kristen Clarke as his replacement, returning the conservatives back down to 5-4 after enjoying 6-3 for 10 years. 4 years later, Justice Thomas' passing enables a 5-4 liberal majority, the first since 1969.

[brucejoel99]

SCOTUS goes SCoWIS (as of Mon., Oct. 5th, 2037):
Chief Justice Justin Walker (Conservative, Aged 55, Appointed by C. DeSantis in 2037)*****
Associate Justice Neil Gorsuch (Conservative, Aged 70, Appointed by Trump in 2017)
Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh (Conservative, Aged 72, Appointed by Trump in 2018)
Associate Justice Amy Coney Barrett (Conservative, Aged 65, Appointed by Trump in 2020)
Associate Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson (Liberal, Aged 67, Appointed by Biden in 2022)
Associate Justice Leondra Kruger (Liberal, Aged 61, Appointed by Biden in 2025)*
Associate Justice Tamika Montgomery-Reeves (Liberal, Aged 56, Appointed by Biden in 2027)**
Associate Justice Maite Oronoz Rodríguez (Liberal, Aged 61, Appointed by Harris in 2033)***
Associate Justice Rachel Bloomekatz (Liberal, Aged 54, Appointed by Harris in 2034)****

* Replaced Thomas upon his resignation as part of a plea deal reached with federal prosecutors.
** Replaced Alito upon his post-conviction-&-sentencing resignation intended to preclude the Supreme Court & Judicial Conference's transmittal to the Speaker of the House of Representatives of a certificate expressing their joint determination that consideration of impeachment of Alito might be warranted.
*** Replaced Sotomayor upon her retirement.
**** Replaced Kagan upon her retirement.
***** Replaced Roberts upon his retirement.