2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[brucejoel99]

32 votes are in!

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1301954206291681280

[brucejoel99]

Michael McDonald has a site up to track early voting: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html.  Obviously there's scant data so far, but there is some.

Michael McDonald is a god among men (source: he was a professor of mine last year).

[brucejoel99]

I seem to remember several posts in October during the 2016 version of this thread saying that Florida was in the bag for Clinton.

Hmmmmm....

Date Registered: August 06, 2020

Mods, it's sock check time.

[brucejoel99]

FLORIDA

1,519,079 votes cast

Democratic 778,283 (51.2%)
Republican 443,157 (29.2%)
Others 297,639 (19.6%)

Dem lead increases to 335,126

Another ~180k ballots were processed today

The Florida numbers are becoming fairly stunning given that there's not in person voting yet (right?).

Correct, in-person early voting doesn't begin 'til Mon., Oct. 19th.

I am starting to think Mike Bloomberg is playing a big role here.  What else explains this.

Incorrect. As somebody on the ground, I'd contend that if Bloomberg is responsible in anyway, then it's only negligibly. The main factors at play here are the general trend of Democratic enthusiasm being through the f**king roof & the fact that a deadly global pandemic is currently occurring.

[brucejoel99]

FLORIDA

1,519,079 votes cast

Democratic 778,283 (51.2%)
Republican 443,157 (29.2%)
Others 297,639 (19.6%)

Dem lead increases to 335,126

Another ~180k ballots were processed today

The Florida numbers are becoming fairly stunning given that there's not in person voting yet (right?).

Correct, in-person early voting doesn't begin 'til Mon., Oct. 19th.

I am starting to think Mike Bloomberg is playing a big role here.  What else explains this.

Incorrect. As somebody on the ground, I'd contend that if Bloomberg is responsible in anyway, then it's only negligibly. The main factors at play here are the general trend of Democratic enthusiasm being through the f**king roof & the fact that a deadly global pandemic is currently occurring.

are old people in Florida turning on Trump in a meaningful way?

Certainly seems like it. The Villages comes to mind as an example of a heavily pro-Trump area that's recently seen a surge in pro-Biden support (relatively speaking, of course - unless Florida literally starts falling into the sea between now & Election Day, Trump still takes it).

[brucejoel99]

FLORIDA

1,519,079 votes cast

Democratic 778,283 (51.2%)
Republican 443,157 (29.2%)
Others 297,639 (19.6%)

Dem lead increases to 335,126

Another ~180k ballots were processed today

The Florida numbers are becoming fairly stunning given that there's not in person voting yet (right?).

Correct, in-person early voting doesn't begin 'til Mon., Oct. 19th.

I am starting to think Mike Bloomberg is playing a big role here.  What else explains this.

Incorrect. As somebody on the ground, I'd contend that if Bloomberg is responsible in anyway, then it's only negligibly. The main factors at play here are the general trend of Democratic enthusiasm being through the f**king roof & the fact that a deadly global pandemic is currently occurring.

are old people in Florida turning on Trump in a meaningful way?

Certainly seems like it. The Villages comes to mind as an example of a heavily pro-Trump area that's recently seen a surge in pro-Biden support (relatively speaking, of course - unless Florida literally starts falling into the sea between now & Election Day, Trump still takes it).

How do we know the villages has seen such a shift?

It's evident on the ground. I sh*t you not, there was literally a golf cart parade held in support of him. That's not something Hillary or Obama ever got (but Trump did).

[brucejoel99]

How do we know the villages has seen such a shift?

It's evident on the ground. I sh*t you not, there was literally a golf cart parade held in support of him. That's not something Hillary or Obama ever got (but Trump did).

This is just a Biden version of boaters for Trump. The Villages has well over 100K people, even a small percent of that would be many thousands of votes. Assuming this golf cart parade wasn't attended by tens of thousands of people, it doesn't tell us anything.

It's not quantitative evidence, but the fact that in a community where Democrats have always felt completely outnumbered and afraid to be public, you're pulling together enough to feel bold enough to go public and have multiple events (recently a ballot drop-off) is as meaningful as people noticing in late 2016, wow, there are a lot of Trump signs in rural Pennsylvania and northern Maine.

This. Of course it's anecdotal evidence that doesn't quantitatively tell us anything, but the fact that it's even able to happen at all is - in & of itself - telling us something. Again, this isn't something that happened for Hillary 4 years ago or even Obama in either election which - need people be reminded? - he actually won Florida.

[brucejoel99]

This is a pretty nice summary of the absentee and early voting schedule by state.

Eh, I can point out at least 1 inaccuracy, given that I got my ballot in the mail on the 29th of Sept. & that chart says FL doesn't start mailing ballots 'til Oct. 1st.

[brucejoel99]

My sister and I got our ballots a couple of weeks ago, but we're waiting to drop them off until Florida starts officially counting in a couple of days.

I voted straight D, though I broke with the party on their suggestion of the nonpartisan Soil and Water Commissioner. I also voted to retain all but three justices, and yes on 2, 5 and 6.

Same, my parents & I got our ballots on the day of the presidential debate IIRC, but we're waiting to drop them off 'til early voting starts next Mon. so we can just drop them off at an early voting site 5 minutes away from our house instead of having to go up to the Supervisor of Elections' office in northern Broward, which is like half-an-hour away from home.

Also voted straight D (though the Broward Dems didn't recommend a candidate for Soil & Water so I just looked them up & voted for the one whose record I thought was better), voted to retain all justices/judges, & yes on 2, 3, 5, & 6.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/abc7/status/1318176906932588544

I guess the new California Republican policy is "if you can't steal 'em, burn 'em."