What would be your betting odds for the 2024 Dem. presidential nomination?

[brucejoel99]

Laying each scenario out:

1. If Trump wins, then it's Warren, regardless of whether or not she was his running mate this time around. She'd probably be the hugest force in the primary, & I can't imagine who'd be able to successfully run against her. Bernie won't run so she'll probably inherit the progressive wing from him, in addition to a good chunk of moderates as well, given the make-up of her voter base this year. The only other contenders I could see are Governors like Newsom or Inslee, but I'm not sure how popular they'd be & with a 2nd Trump term, the party will have likely moved even further left by 2024. Harris would surely run again, but she's not as well-liked &/or seen as charismatic by as much of the base as Warren is.

2. Biden easily wins the primary, facing only nominal opposition a-la Obama 2012.

3. The VP is very much the heavy favorite if they run. If they don't (like - as mentioned - Susan Rice just genuinely might not run), then it's Warren for pretty much the same reasons mentioned in my response re: Scenario #1. If Warren was the incumbent VP who (for some reason) opts not to run, then who knows? A very open primary.

4. The incumbent President easily wins the primary, facing only nominal (if any) major opposition (that is: potentially closer to a Gore 2000 scenario than an Obama 2012 scenario, but still an easy-ass win).