LPKY poll of Libertarian delegates: Amash ahead (user search)
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  LPKY poll of Libertarian delegates: Amash ahead (search mode)
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Author Topic: LPKY poll of Libertarian delegates: Amash ahead  (Read 1611 times)
brucejoel99
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« on: May 19, 2020, 02:11:53 AM »

They provide all the ranked ballots at the link. I was curious how the 2nd place votes for ballots that ranked Amash 1st broke down, in the unlikely case that he decided to drop out (since he only has an exploratory committee after all). They were:

Gray: 25
Jorgensen: 23
Hornberger: 9
Supreme: 8
Monds: 4
Robb: 4
NOTA: 4
Behrman: 3
Vohra: 2
Kokesh: 1

That means that without Amash, we would have a first round like:
Jorgensen: 67
Hornberger: 65
Gray: 43
Supreme: 30
Kokesh: 20
Monds: 17

That would be a much tighter race.

Seeing that Amash has now indeed decided to drop out, I decided to extrapolate the rest of the rounds.

Round 2:
Jorgensen: 72
Hornberger: 69
Gray: 44
Supreme: 32
Kokesh: 23
Monds: 17

Round 3:
Jorgensen: 78
Hornberger: 70
Gray: 50
Supreme: 35
Kokesh: 23

Round 4:
Jorgensen: 82
Hornberger: 70
Gray: 56
Supreme: 40

Round 5:
Jorgensen: 97
Hornberger: 75
Gray: 63

Round 6:
Jorgensen: 141
Hornberger: 80

So it seems as if Jorgensen might have the advantage going into the convention.
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