LPKY poll of Libertarian delegates: Amash ahead

[sparkey]

https://www.facebook.com/86564496935/posts/10157938879661936/?d=n

First round:

Justin Amash - 90 - 33.3%
Jacob Hornberger - 57 - 21%
Jo Jorgensen - 44 - 16.6%
Vermin Supreme - 20 - 7.7%
Jim Gray - 18 - 6.6%
Adam Kokesh - 16 - 6.2%
John Monds - 13 - 5%
Arvin Vorha - 4 - 1.5%
Other - 1 - 0.4%
None of the Above - 1 - 0.4%

Final round:

Amash - 134 - 55.6%
Jorgensen - 107 - 44.4%

Larry Sharpe in the lead for VP.

[Canis]

Is this a poll of all the delegates or just the kentucky ones?
also when is the Libertarian Convention?

[ShamDam]

To any outside observer, it feels obvious that the best way for the Libertarian Party to get the most votes, attention, and credibility is to nominate Amash. But among the true believers, clearly it looks like an opportunistic move on Amash's part to swoop in and expect to easily get the nomination.

I think you see that divide in how the votes shake out -- the 30% of libertarians who don't support Jorgensen initially but coalesce at the end seem to me like a clear anti-Amash bloc.

[sparkey]

Is this a poll of all the delegates or just the kentucky ones?
also when is the Libertarian Convention?

It's 26% of all delegates, although there may be some regional bias because some states didn't participate at all in the poll.

The convention will be in July, although the Presidential selection will probably occur online on May 22: https://lnc2020.com/2020/05/10/lnc-votes-for-new-convention-plan/

[sparkey]

They provide all the ranked ballots at the link. I was curious how the 2nd place votes for ballots that ranked Amash 1st broke down, in the unlikely case that he decided to drop out (since he only has an exploratory committee after all). They were:

Gray: 25
Jorgensen: 23
Hornberger: 9
Supreme: 8
Monds: 4
Robb: 4
NOTA: 4
Behrman: 3
Vohra: 2
Kokesh: 1

That means that without Amash, we would have a first round like:
Jorgensen: 67
Hornberger: 65
Gray: 43
Supreme: 30
Kokesh: 20
Monds: 17

That would be a much tighter race.

[America Needs R'hllor]

They provide all the ranked ballots at the link. I was curious how the 2nd place votes for ballots that ranked Amash 1st broke down, in the unlikely case that he decided to drop out (since he only has an exploratory committee after all). They were:

Gray: 25
Jorgensen: 23
Hornberger: 9
Supreme: 8
Monds: 4
Robb: 4
NOTA: 4
Behrman: 3
Vohra: 2
Kokesh: 1

That means that without Amash, we would have a first round like:
Jorgensen: 67
Hornberger: 65
Gray: 43
Supreme: 30
Kokesh: 20
Monds: 17

That would be a much tighter race.

Huh. I guess they choose Gray because he was an elected official and they like elected officials (see Amash, Johnson)? Hornberger seems to have less chance than I thought (even without Amash).

[brucejoel99]

They provide all the ranked ballots at the link. I was curious how the 2nd place votes for ballots that ranked Amash 1st broke down, in the unlikely case that he decided to drop out (since he only has an exploratory committee after all). They were:

Gray: 25
Jorgensen: 23
Hornberger: 9
Supreme: 8
Monds: 4
Robb: 4
NOTA: 4
Behrman: 3
Vohra: 2
Kokesh: 1

That means that without Amash, we would have a first round like:
Jorgensen: 67
Hornberger: 65
Gray: 43
Supreme: 30
Kokesh: 20
Monds: 17

That would be a much tighter race.

Seeing that Amash has now indeed decided to drop out, I decided to extrapolate the rest of the rounds.

Round 2:
Jorgensen: 72
Hornberger: 69
Gray: 44
Supreme: 32
Kokesh: 23
Monds: 17

Round 3:
Jorgensen: 78
Hornberger: 70
Gray: 50
Supreme: 35
Kokesh: 23

Round 4:
Jorgensen: 82
Hornberger: 70
Gray: 56
Supreme: 40

Round 5:
Jorgensen: 97
Hornberger: 75
Gray: 63

Round 6:
Jorgensen: 141
Hornberger: 80

So it seems as if Jorgensen might have the advantage going into the convention.