UK General Election Prediction Thread

[brucejoel99]

I know anything can happen and all that but I really struggle to see ANY scenario where the Conservatives don’t win a majority and Labour doesn’t go down to the tune of the ‘97 Tories.

I mean, considering the Tories could very well lose quite a few London (+ suburban) seats & some South-West seats to the Lib Dems while gaining some significant vote share in the North that's still not enough (especially with the Brexit Party on 5-10%) to unseat Labour in most cases, it's very easy to see more-than-plausible scenarios with the Tories on less than 326.

[brucejoel99]

Is there anyone who isn’t an overly optimistic lefty that doesn’t think this is a Tory win?

I'm nothing close to an overly optimistic lefty & I think it ends up being another hung parliament, purely on the basis of a gut feeling that BoJo is definitely gonna manage to bungle up the Tory campaign. The only caveat is that I think the Tories lose just enough seats where they can't form a government even if they have the DUP's backing (which, in all likelihood, they won't), & Labour/SNP/Lib Dems/Plaid/Greens win just enough seats where they can form a very shaky minority government, one that won't last the year, but that will last long enough to call a summer referendum (& then, after that, another election toward the end of the year).

[brucejoel99]

So, I'm gonna go out on a limb here & offer my two (admittedly, pretty early) predictions (so, almost both are guaranteed to be wrong), one for my head & one for my heart.

My head's prediction: Tory majority, WA Bill approved, & Brexit happens with BoJo's deal on January 31st.
Conservative: 339
Labour: 228
Liberal Democrats: 19
SNP: 41
DUP: 11
Sinn Féin: 7
Plaid Cymru: 3
Green: 1
Speaker: 1
Brexit: 0

My heart's prediction: A very shaky Labour minority government that won't last the year, but that will manage to last long enough to call a summer referendum (& then, after that, another election toward the end of the year).
Labour: 304
Conservative: 275
Liberal Democrats: 21
SNP: 29
DUP: 11
Sinn Féin: 7
Plaid Cymru: 1
Green: 1
Speaker: 1
Brexit: 0