Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[brucejoel99]

Warren leading in VP polls is nothing more than name recognition.

That excuse could've made sense in April, but the Veepstakes have been going on for nearly 4 months now. Come up with a better (baseless) excuse next time.

[brucejoel99]

Warren has become an unlikely confidant & adviser to Biden:

https://patch.com/massachusetts/boston/elizabeth-warrens-new-role-key-joe-biden-policy-adviser

Warren, a Massachusetts senator and leading progressive, has become an unlikely confidant and adviser to Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. They talk every 10 days or so, according to aides to both politicians who spoke on condition of anonymity to freely describe their relationship. Those forums have provided opportunities for Warren to make a case on top policy issues to Biden, who ran a more centrist primary campaign.

He adopted Warren-endorsed plans on personal bankruptcy, expanding Social Security benefits and canceling student-loan debt for millions of Americans. She also helped devise important portions of his post-pandemic economic recovery proposals.

Warren, meanwhile, is lending Biden her progressive credentials and frequently hosts campaign events for him, including one recent fundraiser that brought in $6 million. Only former President Barack Obama secured a greater haul.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/AvalancheInsg/status/1285933850422476805

[brucejoel99]

Daily Kos endorses Bass:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/7/22/1962934/-Karen-Bass-for-VP

The argument really doesn't make sense. "Pick Bass because Trump doesn't know who she is!" Neither do most voters, so Biden would have to spend time introducing her, & because she's never faced a national campaign like Warren or Harris, we also don't know what's in her closet. We already found the Castro remark.

People are gonna be writing a lot of endorsement & prediction articles this next week, so it might be good to remember what Biden said earlier this month: "Those who don't know speak, those who know don't."


David Axelrod has also graced us with his (much more sane) take:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/22/opinions/joe-biden-vice-presidential-key-factor-axelrod/index.html

And given that he would be the oldest president ever to serve in the Oval Office, Biden may feel a special obligation to choose the woman he believes would make the best president and not just the best candidate this November.

In the next few weeks, Biden will be sitting down or zooming with a final list of contenders, whittled from a larger roster by intensive vetting and preliminary interviews by Biden's team. Those conversations will be more important than any political calculations.

It could lead to a candidate of color -- or not. It could yield a nominee who is relatively young, or one who is older. But it almost certainly will produce the candidate with whom, in his gut, Biden feels most comfortable and in whom he has confidence as a partner for the years, and not just months, to come.

He pretty much says it'll be a Senator (e.g., Warren, Harris, Duckworth) or at least somebody with national experience (Rice). He makes it pretty clear that Biden should judge moreso on experience to be President on Day 1 than on political pressures.

[brucejoel99]

From this LA times article, it looks like there are 2 camps: a Kamala camp & a "not-Kamala but we don't know who" camp, which explains the weirdly rising & falling articles about everybody else (i.e. has anybody seen any new Val Demings articles recently? She was all the rage just a few weeks ago.):

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-07-24/big-lead-shifts-biden-running-mate-search

[brucejoel99]

I am 95% sure we're getting Harris on Aug 1st (to mark 100 years of the 19th Amendment (ratified in August 1920)), and all this noise is just misdirection so they can finish vetting, and writing an announcement speech.

The 100th anniversary isn't until Aug. 18th, which is Day 2 of the DNC, so it'd make sense if the VP voice-vote by acclamation is held on that day, but in keeping with past conventions & with the timeline Biden himself has said they're on (he apparently hasn't held the final one-on-one interviews yet), I don't think we're getting the actual running mate announcement 'til a few days before the DNC (so, ~Aug. 14th or so).

EDIT: acclamation, not acclimation.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1286462426142187525

Oh sh**t...it could actually be Bass, couldn't it?

Eh, I don't think so. In the Pod Save America "Veepstakes!" special, they talked about how during one of the Veepstakes for Kerry or Obama, there was a candidate that wasn't gonna be the nominee but was getting a lot of buzz. They used the opportunity to draw the press' attention away as they approached the announcement. Part of me wonders if this story isn't just a little bit of that, especially considering Bass apparently isn't a fan of the spotlight & hasn't received the type of vetting that other prospective nominees have.

[brucejoel99]

No, no she didn't.

But she certainly did her fair share of publicly bashing him in 2020.

Then you should correct your previous post which refers to 2016.

The post does not need to be "correct[ed]" because it's not incorrect. It refers to her reaction to Bernie's 2016 campaign against her, not to a reaction that itself took place in 2016.

Stop giving a sh*t about meaningless & trivial sh*t.

[brucejoel99]

According to a source I have in the Biden campaign, Duckworth has withdrawn herself from consideration and will give a press conference saying this much later in the week. Waiting for further confirmation.

Wow. Wonder what happened.

[brucejoel99]

Current PredictIt Market for VP

Double digits
Kamala Harris (42)
Susan Rice (27)
Karen Bass (13)

Single digits (above 2, below 10)
Tammy Duckworth (9)
Elizabeth Warren ( 8 )
Val Demings (5)

2 cents
Tammy Baldwin
Michelle Obama
Keisha Lance Bottoms

everyone else at 1 cent

Beware of betting markets. Biden was around 10-12 at this time in 2008 and Ryan in 2012 was below 4. The campaign’s internal process is completely independent of our speculation.

Who was number one at this time in '08 if Biden was lower?

Presumably Evan Bayh?

[brucejoel99]

Former Suffolk County legislator & major Biden bundler:

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1287238183999229952

[brucejoel99]

I would have waited longer, symbolism be damned. Biden doesn't need anything about the race to change yet. Adding any kind of unknown comes with some degree of risk.

Not to mention the fact that the symbolism doesn't really 'apply' to any date except Aug. 18th, which - as Day 2 of the DNC - was already the (presumable) day that the running mate would receive their voice-vote nomination by acclamation.

[brucejoel99]

This makes me think it's Harris. I feel like you know when the hit pieces start coming out that she's either a lock or nearly there.

At the same time, though, is this whole thing a joke? Dodd wanted "remorse" from Harris? Her answer was correct - this is politics. Is she supposed to somberly apologize for politics? There's no way these people are this naive??

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/27/kamala-harris-biden-vp-381829

I have read elsewhere too that Dodd doesn't like Harris and that he was the one behind the Politico piece that called Bass the anti-Harris.

Yeah, clearly the fact that he leaked a part of her interview shows that he's got some vendetta against her. The Bass thing makes sense since he's been trying to elevate her apparently.

Here is a more sinister theory: Biden wants to pick Rice. But he knows that Harris is much more popular among the Democratic establishment, and voters. So he tries to undermine her by putting his senate pal Chris Dodd to sh**t-talk her and smooth the way for Rice.

If the campaign does place a premium on “do no harm” then Rice would be out automatically

This. Rice might even be more harm than Warren, tbh, and that's saying a lot. B/c at least Warren has *some* upsides that can try and counteract the negatives. I really don't see much upside with Rice at all.

The only thing I'm convinced of at this point is that Kamala is crazily overpriced in the betting markets. There's no way that Dodd hasn't shared those comments with Biden & if it's taken at face value, then I think it could be a very large strike against her getting the nod. Even if she ends up being the pick, can it be said that there'd be a lot of trust between them?

I don't get the Harris vs. Bass vibe, though. Per another Politico article from today, which suggests that there's no clear frontrunner for VP, it seems to be Harris vs. Warren vs. Rice:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/27/biden-vice-president-contenders-382115

TL;DR - Biden's people distrust Harris, strategists see Warren as too divisive even if she's the most qualified to be President, & Rice's chances have improved because she has the closest relationship with Biden. The vibe I get from this article is that Biden will end up making a gut decision based on the final interviews. I don't think he'll take the electoral considerations too seriously & will just choose the best governing partner.

[brucejoel99]

This makes me think it's Harris. I feel like you know when the hit pieces start coming out that she's either a lock or nearly there.

At the same time, though, is this whole thing a joke? Dodd wanted "remorse" from Harris? Her answer was correct - this is politics. Is she supposed to somberly apologize for politics? There's no way these people are this naive??

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/27/kamala-harris-biden-vp-381829

I have read elsewhere too that Dodd doesn't like Harris and that he was the one behind the Politico piece that called Bass the anti-Harris.

Yeah, clearly the fact that he leaked a part of her interview shows that he's got some vendetta against her. The Bass thing makes sense since he's been trying to elevate her apparently.

Here is a more sinister theory: Biden wants to pick Rice. But he knows that Harris is much more popular among the Democratic establishment, and voters. So he tries to undermine her by putting his senate pal Chris Dodd to sh**t-talk her and smooth the way for Rice.

If the campaign does place a premium on “do no harm” then Rice would be out automatically

This. Rice might even be more harm than Warren, tbh, and that's saying a lot. B/c at least Warren has *some* upsides that can try and counteract the negatives. I really don't see much upside with Rice at all.

The only thing I'm convinced of at this point is that Kamala is crazily overpriced in the betting markets. There's no way that Dodd hasn't shared those comments with Biden & if it's taken at face value, then I think it could be a very large strike against her getting the nod. Even if she ends up being the pick, can it be said that there'd be a lot of trust between them?

I don't get the Harris vs. Bass vibe, though. Per another Politico article from today, which suggests that there's no clear frontrunner for VP, it seems to be Harris vs. Warren vs. Rice:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/27/biden-vice-president-contenders-382115

TL;DR - Biden's people distrust Harris, strategists see Warren as too divisive even if she's the most qualified to be President, & Rice's chances have improved because she has the closest relationship with Biden. The vibe I get from this article is that Biden will end up making a gut decision based on the final interviews. I don't think he'll take the electoral considerations too seriously & will just choose the best governing partner.

once again, biden / biden's people =/= chris dodd

Okay, and? He's still one of the leaders of the VP vetting committee, so he definitely has the ability to tell Biden his thoughts (which is the only thing I said about Dodd).

[brucejoel99]

I wonder whether Joe Biden will ask Obama for his advice and private, and which recommendation he'd make? I would have to assume he'd like Kamala.

If who he's highlighted on Twitter is anything to go by, possibly Warren.

[brucejoel99]

Here's the thing: if it's Rice or Bass, where are their fundraisers? Kaine was doing multiple campaign events prior to being picked. Presuming these online events are the equivalent, only Harris & Warren seem to be doing them. So if the past is any indication, it really seems like it could only be Harris or Warren at this point.

[brucejoel99]

The megathread exists for a reason.

[brucejoel99]

Speaking of fundraisers--

https://twitter.com/HCTrudo/status/1287919316910977025

So do we think this is a "let Warren supporters down easy while getting money out of them one last time before they get annoyed" fundraiser OR a "preview of what's to come" fundraiser? Because with that July 31st timing, it's surely set up to be one or the other.

[brucejoel99]

Here's the thing: if it's Rice or Bass, where are their fundraisers? Kaine was doing multiple campaign events prior to being picked. Presuming these online events are the equivalent, only Harris & Warren seem to be doing them. So if the past is any indication, it really seems like it could only be Harris or Warren at this point.

I hope you are right. But in that case Biden should rein in Dodd. His constant badmouthing of the VP frontrunner has done no favors to the campaign.

Putting Dodds in charge was bound to backfire as politicians love nothing more than seeing stories they've planted in the press & they run their mouth off.

Thats why this job is often left to lawyers & extremely trusted campaign staff.

Eh, I don't know. Dodd isn't a newbie to any of this (probably a reason Biden made him head of the search committee). He knows how to keep quiet. Who's to say stuff like his comments aren't getting into the press unless Team Joe wants it in the press?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/howardfineman/status/1288161262287937536

[brucejoel99]

I'll be surprised if Biden makes his pick on Saturday, I think he'll make the announcement after the HEROES/HEALS Act with Congress is negotiated and passed into law. Then switch gears to his VP pick and head into the convention with momentum.

The DNC might already be behind us by the time any legislation reaches Trump's desk.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/howardfineman/status/1288181579123167233

https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1287920043641184256

[brucejoel99]

Hard to overstate the mistake Rice would be.

I honestly wanna think (or at least hope) Rice and Harris are just distractions to keep people from figuring out the real pick, in the latter case because Harris is such an obvious and dull choice and the former because Rice makes absolutely 0 sense

Can y'all please fix the formatting of your quotes? I'm not the one who said it would be "hard to overstate the mistake Rice would be."

[brucejoel99]

Yeah I’m sure Politico and a lot of other media outlets have pre-written articles for each VP candidate. It’s weird that one has a quote from a Biden speech that never happened though.

That is what stuck out to me. Hmm

It's just a placeholder quote that would be replaced with the actual positive thing he ends up saying about her during the announcement speech.

[brucejoel99]

Lorem ipsum, apparently. Doesn't explain the quote, though.

It's a simple (& easy!) explanation: Politico accidentally released a draft, & the Biden campaign definitely didn't inform them with Biden's exact pre-written speech or anything. They're just trying to get a feel for how they're gonna word things; by putting in quotes that they can expect from Biden in one way or another, they can prepare for that.