🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[brucejoel99]

Any chance the free voters enter? Do they need to be at 5% nationally or in one state?

It is basically impossible. They would need 3 direct seats (which in practice would be in Bavaria), or 5% nationally, and they are not really close to either.

Like their Bavaria results are great, but it's a 1% average elsewhere. Seems like previous CSU voters parked their vote with FW since they needed another 'mainstream' right-wing party that wasn't with the Union - similar to the state election.

Great enough to actually win some list seats in Bavaria, or still sub-5% even there?

[brucejoel99]

CDU hold my constituency of Stuttgart II, which I did not expect. Despite a dismal showing in the Second Vote. Sad because both the SPD and Green candidates were great, just the left doesn't seem to be as good at voting tactically as the right is. Especially noticeable in Bavaria, where CSU are going to win 45/46 seats including all but one in Munich, which I don't think anyone saw coming.

Does it matter what constituency results are under MMP?

It is very relevant to the size of the legislature, under the German version of MMP anyway.

Collective constituency numbers, anyway. Results within the individual constituencies don't have any effect, though.

[brucejoel99]

Looks like there is no possible coalition without FDP or CDU/CSU

Yeah, but going off of that wording, there's also no possible coalition without the Greens or the SPD.

[brucejoel99]

Official: SPD gain Vorpommern-Rügen – Vorpommern-Greifswald I from CDU.

[brucejoel99]

Is FDP joining a coalition with SPD something they're open to or what happens if they refuse?

They're open to it & will enter into negotiations. If they refuse, then probably Jamaica &/or GroKo negotiations.

[brucejoel99]

Is FDP joining a coalition with SPD something they're open to or what happens if they refuse?

They're open to it & will enter into negotiations. If they refuse, then probably Jamaica &/or GroKo negotiations.

Germany is in this weird situation where the victorious party lacks options and can't force their allies hands, and their potential allies are not all set on supporting the SPD. R2G is in the dumpster, and GroKo v2 has been refused by the Union. The partners, FDP and the Greens, have more leverage since they have the option of walking away from the SPD and proping up the union, despite how it would bend a bunch of German political traditions. So unless the SPD capitulates instantly in negotiations, I bet it goes:

- Traffic light negotiations begin.
- FDP ends negotiations after it hits some red line.
- Jamaica negotiations begin to gain traction.
- SPD capitulates, Greens and FDP come back to the table and exact far more concessions than the SPD would like.
- Traffic Light government formed, but the SPD is unhappy.

As the SPD was vehemently doing at this point in time 4 years ago. Never say never when it comes to GroKos. If traffic-light/Jamaica negotiations fail & the only options left are GroKo, a snap election, & a minority government, GroKo happens.

[brucejoel99]

Any possibility merkel get a retirement job as president?

Presumably unlikely, considering that Steinmeier has already confirmed that he'll be running for re-election.

Why won’t Die Linke and SPD work together? Is there a history of mistrust there?

In the early aughts, they didn't work together purely because their then-leaders - Chancellor Schröder & his predecessor as SPD leader-turned-Linke leader Lafontaine - hated each other's guts. Now, it's more a matter of some major disagreements (e.g., foreign policy) & the general aversion to cooperation with the successor party of East German communists. Also, the numbers just won't work this time around.

[brucejoel99]

In case of traffic light, SPD and Greens would of course need to make a lot of concessions to the FDP despite the fact (or shall we rather say "because") that the Lindner party is the weakest one in such a government... kind of a reverse of the 2017 Jamaica negotiations where the CDU was willing to make A LOT of concessions to Greens which in turn led to the FDP blowing up the talks. This essentially means no new taxes/social welfare and Lindner is the new finance minister.

So yep, Traffic Light is going to be a f**king disaster and an utter waste of political capital for SPD and the Greens. Wonderful.

I will now accept my accolades:

What even is the point of the SPD anymore?

They did well....

This is a disaster for the Union...

Yeah, but the coalition options kinda suck for the SPD: assuming no Jamaica, either they continue the grand coalition with themselves as its leaders this time & thus further enable the erasure of their inherent political identity or they try to form a traffic-light coalition without R2G as negotiating leverage. Neither seems all that likely to lead to future successes for them.

[brucejoel99]

In case of traffic light, SPD and Greens would of course need to make a lot of concessions to the FDP despite the fact (or shall we rather say "because") that the Lindner party is the weakest one in such a government... kind of a reverse of the 2017 Jamaica negotiations where the CDU was willing to make A LOT of concessions to Greens which in turn led to the FDP blowing up the talks. This essentially means no new taxes/social welfare and Lindner is the new finance minister.

So yep, Traffic Light is going to be a f**king disaster and an utter waste of political capital for SPD and the Greens. Wonderful.

I will now accept my accolades:

What even is the point of the SPD anymore?

They did well....

This is a disaster for the Union...

Yeah, but the coalition options kinda suck for the SPD: assuming no Jamaica, either they continue the grand coalition with themselves as its leaders this time & thus further enable the erasure of their inherent political identity or they try to form a traffic-light coalition without R2G as negotiating leverage. Neither seems all that likely to lead to future successes for them.

Speculation, speculation.
This is dooming without reason. There is no reason to believe the FDP will be able to dictate the terms of coalition.

Since when is it speculation to presume that a party that's necessary for the formation of a coalition will wanna dictate the terms that are necessary for them to join said coalition? That seems like basic parliamentary politics 101.

[brucejoel99]

My precinct in Saarbrücken Center voted like this:

Proportional vote:
SPD: 31.7 (+13.2)
Linke: 23.2 (+2.8)
FDP: 14.0 (+3.5)
CDU: 12.0 (-9.9)
AfD: 3.5 (-1.3)
Greens: did not run (-18.1)

District vote:
Josefine Ortleb (SPD): 33.4 (+4.8)
Gerhard Wenz (Greens): 22.2 (+7.5)
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU): 16.4 (-10.2)
Mark Baumeister (Linke): 10.0 (-8.0)
Helmut Isringhaus (FDP): 7.4 (+1.7)
Boris Huebner (AfD): 2.8 (-1.4)

The Green supporters in my precinct did some heavy ticket splitting, especially for Linke, but also for FDP and SPD to lesser extent. Numbers for minor parties aren't out yet.

How can Greens "not run" in the proportional list vote? Did they just abandon the entire state?

Against their will, yes: they were disqualified from running on the Saarland state list due to irregularities in the selection of (who were initially supposed to end up being) their list candidates. This likely ended up costing them a seat or 2 in the end.

[brucejoel99]

A somewhat more detailled summary of the agreement between SPD, Greens and FDP, which will be the framework for coalition talks scheduled to begin next week:

- Climate: Exit of coal energy production until 2030 to save carbon emmissions. This is eight years ahead of schedule: 2038 was the exit date of the Grand Coalition, but criticized by the Greens. Massive investments in renewable energies and science for new, climate friendly technologies planned. Trafficlight coalition wants planning and construction processes for wind turbines and power lines shortened significantly to speed up green energy production and guarantee energy safety at the same time.

- Minimum wage: Minimum wage will be increased to 12€/hour within the first year. Subsequent annual increases will be decided by an independent commission consisting labor, business and economists. An estimation is that this increase will give ten million workers a raise. It was a key promise by Scholz and the SPD.

- Finances and budget: No tax increases, debt brake will be reinstated in 2023 (it's currently paused due to Covid relief programs). However, global minimum corporate tax Scholz co-negotiated will increase tax revenue for the government. Subventions and other expenditures will be audited and a number of them will be reduced or abolished to save money for other purposes. These points were very important to the FDP.

- Social programs: "Hartz IV" will be replaced by a so-called Bürgergeld. Details not known yet, but a major reform of the controversial unemployment insurance adopted under Gehard Schröder in 2003 and that cost the SPD a lot of support since.

- Family policy: Adopt civil rights for children into the constitution (that will require CDU/CSU votes in Bundestag and Bundesrat)

- Housing: Measures to relief the housing market. Target is 400,000 new apartments annually, 100,000 of them subsidized by the federal government for low income households.

- Science: Spending increase for science to 3.5% of the GDP.

- Voting rights: SPD, Greens and FDP want to lower the voting age to 16 years. However, that requires a constitutional amendment and therefore CDU/CSU votes (at least Die Linke will vote for this, too).

- Digitalization: More investments, especially to modernize the state and its authorities.

- Immigration: Immigration reform and implementation of a point system similar to Canada.

- Drugs: SPD, Greens and FDP plan to legalize and regulate cannabis sale and consumption. That was long blocked by CDU/CSU.

These are ambitious goals and if most of that is enacted, a Scholz cabinet may really go down in history as one of the most reform-minded in modern German history.

Political observers already described the 12-pages long paper as relatively detailed as a basis for coalition talks and have praised the discipline the talks were conducted. The only question remaining is how the expenditures can be financed without tax increases. On a more general note, at least all parties agree to modernize industry and labor market and combat bureaucracy to bring Germany to a path of lasting prosperity and economic growth.

Some tax increases and the speedlimit on all highways were things I would have liked to see here, but I realize the FDP just couldn't do that (more important is that they agreed on the minimum wage hike). The Free Democrats came a long a way given that before the election Lindner said he "lacks the fantasy for an offer SPD and Greens could make". However, I'm very happy with the results and the manner of which the talks were conducted exceeded expectations by a lot. The fact that we are at this point today certainly proves functionality of the political system, which is nothing to take for granted.

Trafficlight was certainly my preferred coalition all along because there's the potential to unite social safety, environmentalism, innovation, sound economic and fiscal policies, an open society and a pro-EU, pro-Western foreign policy under the headline of more pragmatism and less ideology.

Lol, lowering the voting age is stupid and would only benefit the left. The CDU should vote against that.

Well, it will probably benefit the Greens and the FDP the most considering these parties' results in the respective age bracket in the last election.
 
I suppose the CDU will vote against it, but considering they're not even in the next government it doesn't really matter anyway.

Well, it does matter insofar as their votes would be required to amend the Basic Law on family policy & voting rights.

[brucejoel99]

So Merkel is set to break the record after all?

No, she would have to stay on to December 19. Narrowly missing the record set by Helmut Kohl.

Oh well, I guess we can always just hope instead that Scholz is still Chancellor on Jan. 4th, 2038