NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[SCNCmod]

Yes- she would get the nomination...

But, she would lose by a couple of points in the general imo.

I also think State Senator Jeff Jackson will be the Dem nominee- and he will be an opposite Dem candidate compared to Cunningham.... Jeff Jackson will definitely overperform, whereas Cunningham has always underperformed (Cunningham was supposed to be a great US Senate candidate when he ran 10 years ago--- Only to underperform and lose in the Dem Primary, to a very bland Elaine Marshall).

Jeff Jackson has the x-factor that I have always thought Cunningham completely lacked.

[SCNCmod]

Any word on whether or not Jeff Jackson is running?

I assume he is, but haven't seen anything definitively saying he's jumping in.  If he does run, he is opposite from Cunningham regarding candidate quality (Cunningham always underperforms). 

[SCNCmod]

Any word on whether or not Jeff Jackson is running?

I assume he is, but haven't seen anything definitively saying he's jumping in.  If he does run, he is opposite from Cunningham regarding candidate quality (Cunningham always underperforms). 

It's really crazy how some people have a short memory, for the past twelve months many posters on this forum explained that Cunningham was not only going to win by a healthy margin (even after the minor scandal broke out), but also that he was going to overperform Biden significantly, and now many of these same posters are trashing him

Nothing crazy about thinking Cunningham is an overestimated candidate who doesn't connect well with the public .... and also thinking that he would defeat a very weak candidate like Tillis. 

I was very much hoping Jackson would be the candidate in 2020- and said many times that he would be a far stronger candidate than Cunningham.  But I also assumed Cunningham would defeat Tillis- mainly because Tillis is also a weak candidate, completely bland, super low name ID for a US Senator & because many polls seemed to indicate Cunningham was far ahead.

Not sure what the overperforming Biden significantly is referring to.

[SCNCmod]

Beasley is the much better candidate (and by far the best Dem Senate candidate NC has had since Kay Hagan).  And I think Beasley has a good chance of eeking out a win.  But I do think she needs to step up her Ad game. 

(In general, Budd is doing a better job of marketing himself (even if falsely so)- otherwise I think Beasley would already have a slight lead in the polls).


Beasley is the adult in the room.  Budd is the more fringe candidate (compared to the average NC swing voter).  Also Budd is the sort of squirmy/ slimy- say anything with a smile type... which works if not pressed... but becomes pretty easy to see- if there is a targeted effort to make sure the average public voter sees it.

Beasley Campaign needs to drive those 2 sentiments into the minds of swing voters.

[SCNCmod]

Overall- regarding a better ad campaign...

Beasley's team needs ads showing swing voters that Budd is the type that will be engaged in political stunts (which is bad for NC's image, attracting new business, etc). ..maybe via a reel of clips of various things he's said in the past, etc.


Also- based on the recent Debate...
why doesn't Beasley fill in the blanks for Voters regarding the "most extreme" abortion bill that Budd repeatedly attacked her for:
By running an ad saying- Budd is against codifying Row V Wade, calling it the most extreme abortion bill ever proposed. (At least I think that is what Budd was referring to... In the debate- he just referred to the bill by its title, not informing voters what the bill actually does)

[SCNCmod]

Some of the comments on why Hagan won... and why Beasley cannot win, etc ... What state are these ppl from??

I'm from NC- and to me... Beasley is definitely the 1st dem candidate since Hagan, that feels like she has the gravitas to win.  And Budd feels like much more of a joke than Burr and Tillis (who isn't really a strong candidate, but does at least come across as more mainstream & at least competent).

Ross, Cunningham, and Marshall ... regardless of where they fall on the political spectrum or their experience... never felt like they had the xfactor needed to win. 

And to say that Beasley is too extreme to defeat Budd- is laughable.  And probably, In the end- the 5% of swing voters in the middle are going to decide the NC election... based on who they find more likable. 

(but none of those 5% of voters are saying that Beasley is "too extreme"... if either candidate loses for being too extreme in the eyes of swing voters... it will be Budd. But I'm not sure those voters will even get to know Budd or his record well enough to even realize that he is out of touch with their general views... so again, it will come down to overall likability- who seems most prepared to be a serious senator for NC)

[SCNCmod]

By the way... for all those people saying Beasley cannot win a statewide election in NC....
are people forgetting that Supreme Court Justices in NC are ... elected (not appointed)??

Beasley won statewide in 2008:
53%
47%

Beasley won statewide in 2014 (Non-Presidential Year):
50.1
49.9

And even in 2020 (when supreme court candidates ran under a party label), Beasley on lost by 400 votes:
2,695,951
2,695,550

*400 votes ... That's just 4 votes per County in NC... (less than 1 vote per precinct in NC... actually around  1/4th of a single voter per precinct).

[SCNCmod]

About two months old, but I think it’s pretty clear Cooper has his eye on a 2026 Senate run:

https://www.wral.com/amp/20413509/

Democrats will probably need Cooper in NC, Peltola in AK, and Golden or Mills in ME or make up ground after what is likely to be a rough 2024 Senate cycle.

Cooper could easily end up being a contender for the 2024 Dem Presidential Nominee (or depending on who the nominee is... the VP candidate),

But if neither of those pan out, then he will definitely likely run for the next open Senate seat.
(He could also pull a Jim Hunt.. and run for Governor again after being out of office- for I think 4 years.  Although this option is unlikely).

[SCNCmod]

The one thing Beasley has to do to in the closing days (IMO) ...

1) start releasing ads that hit back on the Budd attack ads (not that it matters... nor am I really drawing a comparison to the 2 elections, but this is something Hagan did effectively)

2) continue releasing ads that expose Budd as a candidate more interested in far right wing political stunts... rather than taking the job seriously to work for the interest of NC.

[SCNCmod]

Some of the comments on why Hagan won... and why Beasley cannot win, etc ... What state are these ppl from??

I'm from NC- and to me... Beasley is definitely the 1st dem candidate since Hagan, that feels like she has the gravitas to win.  And Budd feels like much more of a joke than Burr and Tillis (who isn't really a strong candidate, but does at least come across as more mainstream & at least competent).

Ross, Cunningham, and Marshall ... regardless of where they fall on the political spectrum or their experience... never felt like they had the xfactor needed to win. 

And to say that Beasley is too extreme to defeat Budd- is laughable.  And probably, In the end- the 5% of swing voters in the middle are going to decide the NC election... based on who they find more likable. 

(but none of those 5% of voters are saying that Beasley is "too extreme"... if either candidate loses for being too extreme in the eyes of swing voters... it will be Budd. But I'm not sure those voters will even get to know Budd or his record well enough to even realize that he is out of touch with their general views... so again, it will come down to overall likability- who seems most prepared to be a serious senator for NC)

There's still the problem of the national environment. I still think it could be good enough to pull Budd over the line. He's not Walker.

Oh- I definitely think Budd can win... I just think Beasley "feels" to me, like the strongest candidate Dems have nominated for Senator, since Hagan was the nominee. (Ross, Marshall, Cunningham ... never "felt" like strong candidates- to me... regardless of resume, etc)

[SCNCmod]

If Democrats couldn't beat Tillis, they aren't beating Budd. Likely R.

Tillis is viewed as boring & has zero X-factor... but he viewed as being pretty mainstream/ generally focused on doing what he think is best for the state, etc

vs Budd ... who is viewed by many as being more concerned with political theatrics/ political stunts/ taking far right wing positions simply for publicity (vs being solely focused on the states best interested)...

So in that since- Tillis is a worse campaigner... but more electable (if swing voters are trending more conservative/ or republican).  Budd is seen as less acceptable to many independent/ swing voters  (the challenge for Dems/Beasley ... is making sure enough swing voters are aware of Budd's past flame throwing type positions).

But Budd on the ticket, provides more winnable voters (independents) compared to Tillis (even though he is generic and boring).  


** I may be wrong- but it seems like a lot of people do not have a very accurate read on Beasley & Budd ... or the Senate race in NC in general.  (Also- although NC votes reliably Republican for President... and for the House/ partially due to gerrymandering ... NC also votes more often for Dems for Governor - and has a history of being willing to elect Dem senators (I just argue that the past 3 Dem Senate candidates have been weak candidates/ election-wise).

[SCNCmod]

....

runner up Bold prediction:

Beasley finishes out the final 2 weeks of the campaign, by finally hitting back against Budd's attack ads- and clarifies to voters why she is not the out of touch flame throwing candidate... and why Budd is the candidate with extreme positions (NC will not elect a Trump-groupie senate candidate this years... if enough voters discover that Budd is a Trump-groupie - prior to casting their votes).

... and Beasley wins the NC Senate election (the same way she was elected statewide- to the State Supreme Court in 2008, 2014, (and only lost by 400 votes in 2020).

*The bold part of this prediction is Beasley's team finally getting clued in to the absolutely necessary need to hit back on the Budd (grossly characterizing .. at best) attack ads... and remind (or probably inform) voters of Budd's extreme antics.

Hear is my prediction- in the "bold prediction" thread...  hopefully it soon starts turning into a reality.  NC being represented in the Senate by Ted Budd is not what the state needs ... Burr and Tillis are 100% mainstream compared to Budd.... I'm just not sure if voters will discover this reality prior to election day.

...NC is being bombarded with an ad that ends with (Cheri Beasley even wants to raise taxes on people making under $75,000)... and still no response ad. 

I'm not sure if the Beasley team fully understands that many of the sway-able, swing voters barely know anything at all about Budd or Beasley- and basically form their opinions and decide on who to vote for (consciously or sub-consciously) based on these repetitive ads that run the last month of the election. (the more partisan, cable news watchers, decided a long time ago who they were voting for...

... whereas the majority of the yet to decide 5-10% that will decide who wins... have basically never heard of Budd or Beasley other than in the onslought of campaign ads.

[SCNCmod]

If she lost in 2020, and if Republicans have the edge a lot of people think they have in the state this cycle, then why in hell did people think she had a shot in the first place lol.

Trump's popularity among the 5-10% swing voters that decide elections in NC... is considerably lower than it was on Election Day 2 years ago.  Also- there is probably an extra 5% at play due to Abortion decicion  (many overlap with the typical 5-10% swing voter).

So considering she essentially tied in 2020... definitely a decent chance ... especially considering Budd is a Dudd  (he's a trump candidate & willing to support Abortion ban with no exceptions).

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/cwebbonline/status/1582063521809825793

https://twitter.com/cwebbonline/status/1580554007986073601


Clip 1   1 min clip ...gives a pretty good (broad overview) of some commentary on the NC race generally ... not saying its perfect, but a good overview for ppl who aren't at all familiar with the race.

Clip 2   1 min clip ...Short segment where Beasley states position on Abortion (which isn't "On Demand, No Restrictions")

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/RogueCitizenOne/status/1583490308477579264

Regarding effective closing Ads... even a cleaned-up version of this (re-shot somewhere, without the couple of pauses, etc)  is really all Beasley needs.

Most of the small % of swing voters in NC are likely not familiar with Beasley at all- and she needs to drill in a short general (re)introduction... from Beasley herself
(it would provide a good contrast to show she doesn't come across as the Ultra Liberal - Pro Child Molester- Pro Cop Killer ... candidate that the Budd & SuperPACs Ad Bombardment is attempting to portray her as).

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/cfgAction/status/1582740348916404227

Regarding Current Attack Ads

Here is another of the  (grossly Misleading) attack ads (there are quite a few):
This one basically saying she supports cop killers... Because as an assistant public defender... she did her assigned job.

(This case was back in the 1990's ... when Beasley was a Public Defender... where you are Assigned clients)

Also- the tweet itself from this PAC releasing the ad... is False (says she backed child predator and Cop Killer over  children and law enforcement)- As a public Defender you are in no remotely factual way making a choice of supporting a defendant over their victim.

 *Regarding the racial ads discussion on prior page- I don't really think the incredulity of the ads is that they are racist ... its that they are so blatantly, over the top... dishonest/ in that their aim is to be completely misleading (in an over the top fashion).

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/CheriBeasleyNC/status/1581343420576325632


Also- for those wondering why the election vs Budd .... is a least potentially different from prior elections vs (Burr and Tillis)....

--> Short answer is Budd is a Trump loving/ Flame thrower type ... Burr & Tillis are not

--> Also, as one of the analyst (in the Clip on the prior page) pointed out- anytime you have a First Minority/ or historical race for a minority (running to be the 1st Black Female Senator from NC)... you often get a bump in minority turnout   (I think... if she wins, she will likely be the only sitting Black Female in the US Senate - assuming Dennings doesn't pull an upset in Florida)

--> And again, she has also proven that she can win Statewide (her first 2 NC Supreme Court elections)... and a virtual tie (400 votes) in 2020 NC Supreme Court Election, with Trump on the Ballot (when Trump/ Budd/ Election denier types were more popular than they currently are).

A version of this graphic needs to be in one of her closing ads (or a super PAC ad)...
1) to show that Budd is to the far right of Burr  (the seat they are running for) and
2) to show that he is basically close to a male version of MTGreen.

* Would be even clearer in an ad if it was a graphic with a linear spectrum type scale... and you could also just leave Tillis out... since this is Burr's seat (and most ppl in NC still have no clue who Tillis is... or that he is out Senator!)

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/kcalBkcqJ/status/1583353866456018945


Here is one of Beasley's earlier ads... which would be good to run some in the final two weeks.

- This one draws an explicit contrast to Budd (many of her other early ads were far too soft- in that they didn't do much to also draw a stark contrast to Budd).

- And the contrast is on the issue of Healthcare, which ppl care about when voting
(much more so than ads like the one a SuperPAC was running about Budd's family Public Company that left shareholders in the wind- by cashing out Millions prior to declaring bankruptcy with their company?? even I can't remember the exact details.... that  type of issue doesn't tend to do much to actually affect voting decisions)

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https://twitter.com/cheribeasleync/status/1585061534493179905?s=21&t=wbthioi...



Dave Matthew Get Out the Vote rally in Raleigh

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I disagree with almost the entire post ...(2 posts above).

And to say that internals show NC is over for Dems- is a bit crazy. Although i think Beasley will end up pulling out a close win (Budd has never run statewide, Beasley has run Statewide 3 times... won twice, lost by 400 votes (of over 2M votes).... But I definitely think this race is 100% tossup. I think it could end up being decided by a few thousand votes.

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/cheribeasleync/status/1587179222367346688

https://twitter.com/cheribeasleync/status/1581343420576325632

Hopefully a good closing ad will show that the politics of Budd and Majorie Taylor Green are much closer ... than the politics of Budd and Richard Burr.  Undecided- swing voters are not very ideological... and vote for the (perceived) least extreme candidate.   Beasley has 8 days left to show NC how far right/ extreme Budd is... A fact that hasn't been shown clearly enough thus far.

(IMO- a TV ad that includes the chart showing Budd/ MTG/ Ted Cruz being in lock step.. and not in line with the 2 current NC Republican Senators, is the clearest way to reach undecided voter the final week of the campaign.  This type of graphic.. from a 3rd party source (and a conservative one at that) is most the most effective evidence in a TV ad- even if ppl don't listen to the ad, they will focus in on the chart graphic).

[SCNCmod]

new Rolling Stone article today:

https://twitter.com/rollingstone/status/1588573057316278274


This article takes a look at both candidates campaign strategies & much more... but also highlighting how Budd is the most extreme candidate for NC, US Senate since Jesse Helms (which has remained largely unknown).  

Here are 2 excerpts:
...
If elected, Budd will be the most hard-right senator North Carolina has sent to Washington since Jesse Helms. He is one of only three members of North Carolina’s fairly conservative House delegation who have joined the far-right Freedom Caucus. (The other two are Madison Cawthorn and Dan Bishop, the author of North Carolina’s infamous bathroom bill.) He has a long record of protests votes against even the most inoffensive bipartisan efforts: besides the five-year farm bill, Budd voted against the CHIPS Act, intended to boost semiconductor manufacturing — another big industry in North Carolina. Budd voted against a bill to help ease the baby formula shortage, against infrastructure legislation, against the Inflation Reduction Act, against a gun safety bill supported by both of North Carolina’s current Republican Senators, Thom Tillis and Richard Burr. Budd voted, too, to overturn the election results.

...

But the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to end federal protections for abortion has thrown an additional spike strip in Budd’s path to victory. His views on the issue could not be more extreme: Budd has said he supports outlawing abortion even in cases of rape and incest and has gone further than even the most rabid anti-abortion groups, by raising questions about whether there should be exceptions if a woman’s life is at stake. Asked point-blank if he opposed an abortion ban even if “the mother may die from giving birth?” Budd replied: “I think that’s something you have to look at.”

[SCNCmod]

Looks like Budd is corrupt

I had not seen this before... If anyone cares about the issues surrounding Big Banks... or how blatantly evident some politicians sell their influence... this is worth watching (its about 10 mins)

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https://twitter.com/cheribeasleync/status/1588507431457677312


Here is (I assume) Beasley's closing Ad.  ... Not a Bad Ad

(Although I still think her campaign could have more clearly shown that Budd would be the most extreme senator since Jesse Helms, ranks almost identically to Majorie Taylor Greene, Voted against the semiconductor bill (even though RTP is in NC), Has supported total abortion bans, voted against the farm bill, etc etc)

She is the best fit for NC, but the election will depend on how many ppl were swayed by all of the grossly misleading attack ads, and how many moderates learned about Budd's actual political record.

Who turns out will be especially important in this election. The latest Marist poll shows Budd leading by 4pts among likely voters... but the race tied among registered voters.  

Also important will be how abortion effects turnout- and does it lead to inaccurate models used by pollster. latest polls show that Abortion was only listed as the top issue by 14% of respondents. But 48% of respondents said they are more likely to vote as a result of Roe v Wade being overturned (of those voters 70% would vote for Beasley). So the effect Roe has on the election may be more complex than it being top issue for only 14% of voters.