Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[BG-NY]

Most interesting part of that poll:

WI/MI vote clearly to the right of AZ/PA, which vote well to the right of GA.

GA is safe D imo.

I wish they polled NV/ME-statewide/NH/NC too.

[BG-NY]

When I saw this news my jaw hit the floor lol
https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1463501439012151296
It still blows my mind that Biden is not getting more credit for this

In case your jaw is still agape, some context:

[BG-NY]

I really don't get it. Yes, there needs to be more done about inflation and the Afghanistan withdrawl was messy, but come on. One of the lowest unemployment rates ever, competent vaccine rollout, major infrastructure bill passed instead of one infrastructure weeks after another, re-engagement with Western allies, a second major pience of legislation is about to be passed and no scandal concerning the president or his inner circle. Actually Biden's number should be a lot better.

Can you just attribute this to the Democrats messaging, or are these policies not that popular (contrary to polling on individual issues). Or - and I know this may read arrogant and lecturing - are people just ignorant and don't pay attention?

Not trolling - I think a lot of it is demeanor. Biden has a tendency to be too reserved and seems almost aloof at times. It feeds into the “senility” stuff. Maybe Forumlurker is right and Joe needs to start cursing etc.

(EDIT: I think the global reengagement stuff is also less popular than one would think but it’s hard to tell)

[BG-NY]

Will be interesting to see if Biden can climb out of the 30's with a post-Thanksgiving bump, or if Omicron will continue his descent into W Bush territory.

[BG-NY]

Every time I come to this thread I hope there’ll be something different. Instead it’s poll after poll in the mid 30s to low 40s. Hopefully Biden can get out of this rut.

[BG-NY]

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1469304157433745419?t=3DXDx-VkMwGykYP1q5...

Wow.

[BG-NY]

...I try to deal with quantitative measures, and if this is true

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1470425591748960260

then the Democrats are in far better shape than they were a month ago.  

A month ago, Biden was at 48 approval, 47 disapproval in the same poll:

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2021-11/2021%20Ipsos%20Tracking%20-%20Core%20Political%20Presidential%20Approval%20Tracker%2011%2004%202021.pdf

So he's actually down one point net (to even from +1) in an outlier.

Look at trends within polls.

[BG-NY]

Wow, Biden really is bouncing back in online surveys! I’m excited to see the next live caller poll, to see if they confirm or disagree with this trend.

[BG-NY]

I get what Harry is trying to say, but why are we trying to act like Biden's current -8 average rating is the same as Trump's -19 at the same time in 2017? The press is really going apoplectic about Biden's numbers acting if there just as bad as Trumps.

(1) Most polls now are adults. Adults polls overestimate Democrats and underrate Republicans historically. The difference between Adults and RV is around 2 points, and RV to LV is another point or 2.
(2) There was and still is a social stigma to supporting Trump. When he was on the ballot, he overachieved polling numbers consistently. Biden has underachieved polls consistently. In midterms I don’t think we can expect either party to over or underachieve, but it’s worth noting that in exit polls for midterm Trump was at 48% and for the presidential at 50%.
(3) That’s the average on 538 which uses Longroom style poll unskewing between arbitrary adjustments and arbitrary weighting. In raw averages like RCP there is not a ton of daylight between Trump and Biden.
(4) These generic ballot figures look historically bad. Republicans posting high single digit and in some cases double digit leads is something that just doesn’t happen.

[BG-NY]

I believe that Biden’s approval is merely stabilizing somewhere between the high thirties and low to mid forties or so. Fairly similar to Trump’s, actually.

Yeah, they have been close in averages of polls on RCP (excluding LongRoom “unskewing” operations like 538).

[BG-NY]

He's approaching post-Katrina W Bush territory, and we don't even have LV polling yet.

[BG-NY]

This is the diciest situation in American history since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

What?

[BG-NY]

lol

[BG-NY]

It's pretty obvious now with Biden near 50 D's are gonna at least win the 303 map it's heading towards a 65/60 M election but there is an exception in 2012/18 we won 42 H seats in 2018 with 46/43 M and, in 2016/2020 65)60 M wasn't a landslide, it's a calvary for some reason in Midterms if you win the D's won less vote it's a landslide but on Prez elections it's a 303 Map

If it's a 65/60 M D vote according to 2012/18 standards that's a blue wave meaning DC Statehood the H and Tim Ryan being elected we also won 2018 the OH Senate race and we have nine mnths but as of now the blue wall is secure, Evers has a 51: percent Approvals

Biden is closer to 30 than 50, OC. There's a reason pbrower2a isn't here.

[BG-NY]

SOTU speeches rarely lead to bumps in approval.

This...isn't true at all.

In Gallup, Trump increased by 2, Obama increased by 2, Clinton increased by 4. Bush is the only recent president not to increase after his first SOTU, but he was already at 84% after 9/11.

All of them decreased the following poll however, so whatever gains Herr Brandon has enjoyed, he'll almost certainly relinquish over March.

[BG-NY]

Preparing to start anew.

lol

[BG-NY]

Do you know what Trump Approval was in 2018/2020 it was 43/54 the only way as I said to determine if these polls are accurate is to Get an election result not Approval ratings

The key differences…

(1) As we move from Adults->RV->LV, it benefits republicans more.
(2) With the exception of 2012, every polling error in recent memory has benefitted the republicans.

It’s not a matter of the president and his/her party being underestimated. It’s one party in particular.

[BG-NY]

Do you know what Trump Approval was in 2018/2020 it was 43/54 the only way as I said to determine if these polls are accurate is to Get an election result not Approval ratings

The key differences…

(1) As we move from Adults->RV->LV, it benefits republicans more.
(2) With the exception of 2012, every polling error in recent memory has benefitted the republicans.

It’s not a matter of the president and his/her party being underestimated. It’s one party in particular.

You do realize that it was a 33/33M electorate in 2010 and an 80/75M  election in 2020 there is no way Rs sweep in this environment with a 65/62M electorate that's why there is Voting Suppression, am I donating to Ds no I am not but will give them my vote I'm 2022 unless Biden Approvals make a miraculous recovery

But 2010/2014 was a 33/33 M vote in same day voting not 60/60 M big difference you need to look at Election results and stop looking at just Approvals

Turnout levels are directly related to education level and income. As the republican base gets increasingly downscale they benefit from higher turnout elections.

[BG-NY]

Biden is a failed president.

Even when he's right, he's wrong.

This is over.

[BG-NY]

Biden is a failed president.

Even when he's right, he's wrong.

This is over.

Could you explain more?

He didn't make a mistake on Afghanistan. But it cost him 15 points in approvals.

Several other examples.

[BG-NY]

Latinosare concerned about gas prices but they are on welfare and food stamps

Uh...racist much?

[BG-NY]

Biden getting destroyed and pbower 2A is not here nothing new

He’s probably here on a different username.

[BG-NY]

I love Joe Biden. Go Joe Biden.

[BG-NY]

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1513864692569190403?s=21

[BG-NY]

It's a shame Biden wasted political capital pushing this judge through the turnstile.