California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

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One of the most revolting exploitations of identity politics I've ever seen. This wasn't sexism and these elder abusing f**king crooks know it's not sexism.

The oligarchy is alive and well in San Francisco. But I’m sure that this has nothing to do with Nancy Pelosi trying to preserve her class’s power at the expense of the progressive ideals she claims. After all it’s her opponents who are so sexist that they are trying to get someone reported by Vox to have Alzheimer’s almost a decade ago out of the senate.

Nancy Pelosi is easily the most corrupt, evil, corporate tool of a democrat and once again it shows

Aren't you the one who'd rather have a Republican win than Schiff? Having a Republican win a Senate seat in California (for even one term, remember "yes on Clarence Thomas" voting Senator John Seymour) would do irreparable damage to the nation for decades (maybe even forever), where SCOTUS picks will be blocked by a Californian, and that Senator would vote for Federalist Society SCOTUS justices.

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Will a CAGOP endorsement unite the GOP in the primary? The GOP making it past the primary would make the fundraising less expensive in California.

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Is Eric Early the top Republican?

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Three serious Democrats might make the runoff D vs R.

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Larry Elder endorsed Eric Early in the 2022 California AG primary. I wouldn't be surprised if Early is endorsed again.
https://twitter.com/larryelder/status/1528567557963141122

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Every serious Democratic candidate supports court packing. Does it even matter who wins?

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Will a Karen Bass endorsement have an impact on who wins Los Angeles?

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https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1661392077777944576

Slightly misleading. Those numbers are after "positive" candidate biographies were presented. Here are the numbers prior to that info:

Early - 27%
Porter - 24%
Schiff - 21%
Lee - 11% (!!!)
Other/undecided - 17%

Those other numbers, coupled with the fact that this is a Lee internal, lead me to believe that the campaign is pretty desperate to spin this result as a positive, despite the fact that even a 9 point swing doesn't even get her out of 4th place.

Then again, this is just one poll.

The real argument to be made is that Schiff and Porter are at their ceilings whereas Lee has actual room to gain. A candidate's vote share not moving after bios is genuinely a very bad sign, as the post-bio vote tends to be the most predictive of the actual final outcome (this is all relative though, polls are of course only snapshots in time).

This here is a UC Berkeley poll, not a Barbara Lee internal

https://twitter.com/vanceulrich/status/1661763830647758849

Most interesting crosstabs to me—

18-39 YO: 19% KP, 9% Schiff, 12% Lee
Latinos: 21% KP, 9% Schiff, 10% Lee

Thats a recipe for Porter to do well in SoCal.

Orange County too?

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I doubt Feinstein survives the full term.

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I doubt Feinstein survives the full term.

Is this just a general assumption or has there been a recent update on her health? I haven't seen much lately.

Anyway, I agree with 52% of Democrats saying she should step down. Newsom would be well advised to appoint a placeholder.

Recent update.

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Isn't Lee a Kevin de Leon 2018 voter?

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Will heavily white Humboldt and Mendocino be a 2018 redux by voting against the white candidate?

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If it's D vs D, will Humboldt and Mendocino vote to the left of the Bay Area like in 2018?

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I mean does she really though? She had a great launch yes with donors from across the country but when people from outside Cali learn about Lee especially if a national figure like Bernie endorses her, will as many people keep there donations to her up? One of the reasons she had such a successful launch too was there's no major national races going on now. As we get closer to November there will be the presidential race, the national Senate race and the house. Most national donors are gonna put Katie's Senate race at a much lower priority while all the in state organizations and donors who will be backing Lee will still have a vested interest in the race and it will be one of there top priorities.

Honestly I think this race will be over after the March Primary.  With three major Democratic candidates I think it's likely a Republican finishes in the top 2.

I think the chances of this are extremely slim. Since the top-two system was implemented, only once has there been a gubernatorial or senatorial election with multiple serious Democratic candidates where the general election did not involve two Democrats: that was the 2018 gubernatorial election, where John Cox poured a lot of money into his campaign and was aided by a Newsom campaign anxious to keep Antonio Villaraigosa out of the general election.

It should be obvious that there will be no similar Republican candidate this time. If a deep-pocketed Republican were to try to launch a longshot bid for statewide office, the obvious thing to do would be to try to seek the governorship in 2026. In any case, there's no indication that any such Republican will try to set money on fire in that way. The Republican vote in California should do what it always does in these situations, which is splinter a hundred different ways among a hundred also-ran candidates, none of whom are running real campaigns.

But didn't all D vs D runoffs only include two serious Democrats? Harris and Sanchez in 2016. Feinstein and de Leon in 2018. Superintendent of Public Instruction 2018 with Thurmond and Tuck.

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What if the CAGOP endorses a candidate? Will Republicans unite?

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Would Schiff and/or Porter do better in the Bay Area than the Emerald Coast against Lee?

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Malia Cohen?

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Would Schiff win Orange County if he faces Lee?

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https://twitter.com/BarbaraLeeForCA/status/1701041279839375670
These comments by Barabara Lee expressing her dissapointing with the descion are both sour grapes and seem to express a contemptous attitude towards the idea that voters should be able to pick their representives and the concept of senators representing all their counstituents not just the ones they share demographics charectersitcs with.

It's one of the most entitltied things i've seen written by any major us politican.

Yeah, that's a bad statement which makes her sound like a bitter person with an inflated sense of entitlement. It won't make her many new friends.

I agree and it basically ends her candidacy, but she’s also right. So Newsom’s goal the whole time was to nominate a black figurehead to pander while still supporting a white former blue dog behind the scenes? Typical of him.

This is all wonderful news for Senator-elect Katie Porter though anyway. The party is trying to rig it for Schiff, but she has crossover appeal and will win progressives handily.

Not Rigging the race for Lee is rigging it for Schiff ? This is an incredibly dubious line of reasoning.

Will Lee supporters want a Republican to win if it's Schiff vs R just to spite Schiff?

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California's Democratic Harold Stassen Akinyemi Agbede is in again as usual.

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Who's calling Alex Padilla a DINO?

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Who would Karen Bass endorse in a Porter vs Schiff matchup?

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What will happen if Lee continues to poll this poorly?

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What would a Schiff vs Lee matchup look like? My guess is that Schiff does very well in Southern California.

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What happens if Feinstein dies and Newsom appoints Malia Cohen?