California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Greedo punched first]

Is anyone who doesn't vote for Lee going to be called an "evil fascist DINO" these days? If it's Porter or Schiff vs, a Republican, Democrats should vote GOP out of spite?

[Greedo punched first]

Is anyone who doesn't vote for Lee going to be called an "evil fascist DINO" these days? If it's Porter or Schiff vs, a Republican, Democrats should vote GOP out of spite?

Indeed.

You'd rather vote for Garden Grove mayor Steve Jones (R, Glenn Youngkin type Republican), former Assemblyman Travis Allen (R, far-right pervert), or Young Kim (R, extreme homophobe) (if one of them runs) than for Adam Schiff (D) or Katie Porter (D)?

[Greedo punched first]

Is one who votes for Porter or Schiff necessarily a “bad” person, even though both are to the left of Feinstein?

[Greedo punched first]

It gets worse:

https://twitter.com/michaelarria/status/1633174480141918209
Warrenites, man.

Democrats of the Elizabeth Warren school of thought are the worst. Not only are they pretending to be progressives, they are TERRIBLY politically and come off as extremely unappealing to average voters.

Who is an average voter?

I think “average voter” is being used as a code for DSA types who frequently vote third party (Green/Peace and Freedom).

[Greedo punched first]

If it's a Katie Porter or Adam Schiff vs some Republican runoff, I'm expecting to see the many "Atlas Democrats endorsing the GOP candidate out of spite" be very vocal.

[Greedo punched first]

Schiff has the advantage now

No, actually. Assuming he makes it to the general, he has no base. Republicans won't vote for him and Porter and Lee already have the left of center vote locked up.

What are the differences between Porter's base and Lee's base?

[Greedo punched first]

When will the first Survey USA poll be released?

[Greedo punched first]

Schiff has the advantage now

No, actually. Assuming he makes it to the general, he has no base. Republicans won't vote for him and Porter and Lee already have the left of center vote locked up.

Schiff is the candidate of wealthy establishment liberals. He’d crush Lee in SoCal as she’s too economically left for a lot of those voters, and so is Porter in Silicon Valley.

In keeping with what I've said in this thread in the past, it's absolutely inscrutable what "establishment" means here. People should stop using "establishment" to mean "economically right-wing" and just say that. Those terms might be synonymous in New York but they're very much not here.

With regard to any actual establishment, at most what you can say is that Schiff is one of two candidates to have gotten significant support from elected officials. As has been brought up repeatedly in this thread, there has been absolutely no indication that the California Democratic Party establishment supports Schiff over Lee. It's annoying to have to keep repeating this.

As for the rest of the post, it's helpful to remember that Bernie Sanders won 47 out of 53 congressional districts in the state of California in the 2020 primary. Although he won nearly everywhere, Sanders's best districts were in the Los Angeles area, where he received at least 49% of the vote in five different districts. There is just no evidence that an "economically left" candidate would get "crushed" by the Democratic primary electorate in California.

If you're referring to the California electorate in a general election, I'll quote what I've already said:

[Feinstein] being "more conservative" has nothing to do with the way that California Republicans vote in elections between two Democrats. There have been two senatorial elections in California between two Democrats, and in both cases Republican areas overwhelmingly voted for the Democrat running the more left-wing campaign. As I've mentioned on this thread previously, Schiff and Porter each could face serious difficulty attracting Republican votes, but that is because they are both cable news personalities. Ideology is not relevant here.

It's the general election. When it comes to GOP votes, how would Lee do?

[Greedo punched first]

This is one of the main reasons I don't want Lee. She will be 78 by the time her Senate term starts. Why go for Lee and risk situations like this when you have a younger alternative who will vote the same as Lee 99%+ of the time ?

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1645428932835942402

Because I want a proven left-wing voice from the Bay Area.

Who cares about the Bay Area? Do we really want to deal with another Feinstein situation in a couple of years who even if she doesn't end up like DiFi will probably just serve out a single term, when we could easily elect a much younger progressive who could shape the future of the Democratic Party for years to come, and could even be a contender for the Presidency post-Biden?

The DSA types would rather deal with a situation similar to Feinstein, with someone who is older (even risking death in office in a grossly malapportioned Senate), than have a younger candidate who can easily serve multiple terms win. DSA types would even prefer to have a toxic Republican win than a younger Democrat.

[Greedo punched first]

What counties are up in the air in a potential D vs D race?

[Greedo punched first]

Brad Sherman's perennial primary challenger Raji Rab will run for Senate. Will perennial Democratic candidate Akinyemi Agbede run again in 2024?

[Greedo punched first]

Wil Ro Khanna run a primary challenge against Alex Padilla in 2028?

[Greedo punched first]

If Feinstein resigns or dies, who does Newsom appoint (likely an African-American woman)?

[Greedo punched first]

With the campaign de facto ongoing already and high-profile candidates in, it seems reasonable to assume Newsom would appoint a placeholder who's not running for a full term in 2024? Who could that be?

It would likely be an African-American woman.

[Greedo punched first]

Will Newsom need to appoint a replacement even though Feinstein isn't resigning?

[Greedo punched first]

Will Newsom need to appoint a replacement even though Feinstein isn't resigning?

No. Feinstein must actually resign for that to happen.

What I meant is will Feinstein be healthy enough to be alive for the entire term?

[Greedo punched first]

Might Newsom appoint Malia Cohen as a placeholder?

[Greedo punched first]

Does the winner in 2024 have a good chance to hold the seat for as long as that incumbent wants? Primary challenges are rarely successful.

[Greedo punched first]

Really, Newsom shouldn't have backed himself into the corner of saying he'd only appoint an African-American woman.

The best appointment, really is Kounalakis, because even if she did run, she'd be no threat in a primary, and she probably won't run because she wants to be Governor more.

Kounalakis seems more likely to launch a bid for governor in 2026 when her second term as number two is coming to a close. So basically following Newsom's footsteps. I think she has a decent shot making it into the general election.

Nah, she probably doesn't make the general. If she does, she loses. More high profile Dems will run.

Who do you think of? Fiana Ma? She'd be a formidable candidate, though I could see Kounalakis making it into the November election. It's not assured the race will be D vs. D either way, depending on the GOP field of candidates. Ever since adopting the jungle primary, a GOPer advanced to the GE. Kounalakis would easily win against any R.

To the best of my knowledge, she's already preparing for a run and expressed interest in running.

She'd get primaried out. Ma is accused of abusing staff.

[Greedo punched first]

I don't believe it's worth having California be a state with two Senators (or even three) die in office within a period of 70 years (Feinstein will probably be the second). If that happens, California would be one of the few states to hold that distinction.

[Greedo punched first]

I don't believe it's worth having California be a state with two Senators (or even three) die in office within a period of 70 years (Feinstein will probably be the second). If that happens, California would be one of the few states to hold that distinction.

Guess who I made a vague reference to in the post I quoted? Do you remember his name?

[Greedo punched first]

I don't believe it's worth having California be a state with two Senators (or even three) die in office within a period of 70 years (Feinstein will probably be the second). If that happens, California would be one of the few states to hold that distinction.

Guess who I made a vague reference to in the post I quoted? Do you remember his name?

There was a Democrat in 1964 who died in office, right?

Clair Engle from California. Feinstein will probably be the next Clair Engel.

[Greedo punched first]

Newsom is likely to appoint a replacement for Feinstein later this year or next year.

[Greedo punched first]

Will fundraising have an impact?

[Greedo punched first]

Would Porter be favored to win my home county in the runoff (if she makes it to November)?