CA-UC Berkeley: Biden +39

[Greedo punched first]

Could this mean Mike Garcia is DOA?

[Greedo punched first]

Could this mean Mike Garcia is DOA?

Yeah, it would, this would mean Biden is winning his seat by over 15 points, but he's been DOA since he won the special

Would that also mean TJ Cox is safe?

[Greedo punched first]

The theory that CA is "maxed out" for Democrats was always silly and didn’t even make sense when Trump's position was less catastrophic than it is now.

That said, I don’t think OC and Westchester will be what Democrats will be patting themselves on the back for on election night if that margin is accurate. DFW and Houston, though...

What does the margin in California tell us about election results in Texas or any other state?  Hillary Clinton had the best margin for any Democrat in California since FDR and she still lost the national election, lol

Democrats standing around celebrating a +39 poll in Titanium D California makes me think they're campaigning to win the NPV

Democratic trends in Texas and Arizona maybe?

[Greedo punched first]

You do recognize that Biden could have historic performances in many of these counties (kinda like how Hillary Clinton did in 2016) and still lose the electoral college?

I said 'new votes', not 'lose votes'

Joe Biden could gain tens or hundreds of thousands of new votes in states like TX, GA, FL and NC (irrespective of the margin) and still come up short in flipping those states.  Based on the aggregate predictions on this site that's what many posters believe will happen, in fact. 

The great thing about the electoral college (for Trump) is that it doesn't matter if he wins TX by 800k, 80k or only 8k votes.  He still gets to walk away with 38 electoral votes.  Similarly, it changes the electoral calculus absolutely zilch if Biden bests Trump in CA by 6 million votes (as opposed to Clinton's 4.7 million).

If you look at the ones I listed, most of those counties are in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, and Iowa. Not very many in Texas, Georgia, or North Carolina

Oh yeah, so remind me which part of California is analogous to Mahoning County, OH or Cerro Gordo, IA?  I'll wait

Well, the San Joaquin Valley is pretty similar to rural Iowa in some respects. Not as white, of course, but Biden will likely do better than Clinton in places like that. Cities like Richmond and Hercules resemble much of the Mahoning Valley, too. Old heavy industry. towns.

Of course, you're the missing the point. I think Biden will do better than Clinton in every county that I listed earlier.

The San Joaquin Valley is also more urban than Iowa. Bakersfield's urban core, Fresno, and Stockton all vote Democratic.