2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

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My Los Angeles-Ventura-Santa Barbara map. I wanted to keep all the Channel Islands together. Is it fine that I also put the majority-white neighborhood in Hawthorne in Ted Lieu's district?
 

Attaching Catalina to Santa Barbara makes absolutely no sense.

Why not? Santa Barbara and Oxnard have airports. Catalina is one of the Channel Islands.

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Updated. Long Beach and San Pedro are in Barragan's district with Catalina Island.

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When splitting cities, is it fine that I split both Hawthorne and Huntington Beach for cultural and political purposes? I also renumbered Los Angeles.

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Does Costa live in CA-16 or CA-21?

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Speaking of Valadao, why didn’t Costa stay in his original district in 2012? It barely changed. Did he want a whiter seat because he didn’t want to face a primary challenge?

CA-16 is safer for Democrats.

If Costa had decided not to jump ship for CA-16, does that mean one less Central Valley seat for Rs throughout the 2010s?

Not necessarily, as Costa has never been a particular strong performer in the area. In all likelihood, however, that would be the case.

Who do you think would run for and win CA-16?

Right now or back then?

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Remember Lois Capps’ eyesore snakemander until 2012?

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Does the Central Valley have a large Azorean population (Nunes and Costa too)?

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As younger people become old enough to vote, it will be easier to draw Hispanic districts more cleanly.

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I was wondering is it possible to keep CA-16 as 52%+ Hispanic VAP with 2018 population if you just use Merced, Madera, and Fresno city in Fresno, because it doesn't seem so, and you can't expand west into Fresno County, because those Hispanic precincts are needed for CA-21, so I'm interested as to how you guys got around this, unless you took the seat apart or just changed it into a minority coalition one.

I got Merced and Fresno (without Madera) with 52+% HCVAP in CA-19. I got 54% HCVAP in CA-21.
   

[Greedo punched first]

I decided to change my map again.

1: Mike Thompson, 2: Doug LaMalfa, 3: Tom McClintock, 4: Doris Matsui, 5: Ami Bera, 6: Jerry McNerney, 7: Eric Swalwell, 8: Tim Grayson?, 9: Jared Huffman, 10: Nancy Pelosi, 11: Barbara Lee, 12: Jackie Speier, 13: Anna Eshoo, 14: Ro Khanna, 15: ?, 16: Zoe Lofgren, 17: Josh Harder, 18: Devin Nunes, 19: Jim Costa, 20: Kevin McCarthy, 21: TJ Cox, 22: Jimmy Panetta, 23: Salud Carbajal, 24: Julia Brownley, 25: Brad Sherman, 26: Tony Cardenas, 27: Adam Schiff, 28: Mike Garcia/Christy Smith, 29: Judy Chu, 30: Jimmy Gomez, 31: Karen Bass, 32: Andre Quintero?, 33: Maxine Waters, 34: Ted Lieu, 35: Nanette Barragan, 36: Linda Sanchez, 37: Ed Hernandez?, 38: Norma Torres, 39: Pete Aguilar, 40: Jay Olbernolte/Christine Bubser, 41: Mark Takano, 42: Ken Calvert, 43: Gil Cisneros, 44: Diedre Nguyen?, 45: Lou Correa, 46: Harley Rouda, 47: Mike Levin, 48: Georgette Gomez/Sara Jacobs, 49: Scott Peters, 50: Juan Vargas, 51: Darrell Issa/Ammar Campa-Najjar, 52: Raul Ruiz

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My map has many open seats. Are my guesses on who might take them good guesses?

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Pairing Imperial is a pain. Should it go with Riverside, National City, or East County?

My updated Orange County map. CA-44, Lowenthal's old seat, is now plurality-Asian. It loses all of Long Beach, Lakewood, and every other part of LA County. It takes in Seal Beach, Fountain Valley, and parts of Huntington Beach. CA-43, Cisneros' district, home of Cal State Fullerton, loses LA County and extends further south. CA-46, Rouda's seat, loses parts of Huntington Beach and extends further inland. CA-42, Calvert's district, is the only OC district that shares with another county.

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My Bay Area map. San Jose gets a fourth seat because of population growth.

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Also re: Santa Clarita, there's no reason to put it with Ventura, ever. You'd be better off drawing the coastal monstrosity out to Ventura and putting Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks with Santa Clarita to make a suburban commuter district

I put Simi Valley with Thousand Oaks, but didn't put them with Santa Clarita. My version of CA-37 is plurality AACVAP.

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I created two San Diego maps. Which one is better?

Map 1, Imperial with Riverside:


Map 2, Imperial with East County:

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I created two San Diego maps. Which one is better?

Map 1:


Map 2:

Map 1, the 48th crossing three counties in the second map is just unnecessary

I guess, but the county split into a sparsely populated area is minimal (the real 1990s map did that too). There’s a highway connection. You prefer my first map, which has Calvert’s district covering parts of OC?

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I created two San Diego maps. Which one is better?

Map 1:


Map 2:

Map 1, the 48th crossing three counties in the second map is just unnecessary

I guess, but the county split into a sparsely populated area is minimal (the real 1990s map did that too). There’s a highway connection. You prefer my first map, which has Calvert’s district covering parts of OC?

Yes, but that can be avoided by moving the 47th north into southern Orange County.

But that requires me to pair Mission Viejo with Carlsbad, like the current real map. I don’t like that. Is my map with Calvert’s district covering OC still better?

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My second CA map.

1:  Mike Thompson, 2: Doug LaMalfa, 3: Tom McClintock, 4: Doris Matsui, 5: Ami Bera, 6: Jerry McNerney, 7: Eric Swalwell, 8: Tim Grayson?, 9: Jared Huffman, 10: Nancy Pelosi, 11: Barbara Lee, 12: Jackie Speier, 13: Anna Eshoo, 13: Ro Khanna, 15: ?, 16: Zoe Lofgren, 17: Josh Harder, 18: Devin Nunes, 19: Jim Costa, 20: Kevin McCarthy, 21: TJ Cox, 22: Jimmy Panetta, 23: Salud Carbajal, 24: Julia Brownley, 25: Brad Sherman, 26: Tony Cardenas, 27: Adam Schiff, 28: Mike Garcia/Christy Smith, 29: Judy Chu, 30: Jimmy Gomez, 31: Karen Bass, 32: Andre Quintero?, 33: Maxine Waters, 34: Ted Lieu, 35: Nanette Barragan, 36: Linda Sanchez, 37: Ed Hernandez?, 38: Norma Torres, 39: Pete Aguilar, 40: Jay Olbernolte/Christine Bubser, 41: Mark Takano, 42: Ken Calvert, 43: Gil Cisneros, 44: Diedre Nguyen?, 45: Lou Correa, 46: Harley Rouda, 47: ?, 48: ?, 49: Scott Peters, 50: Juan Vargas, 51: Georgette Gomez/Sara Jacobs, 52: Raul Ruiz

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Los Angeles area. CA-24 is the only LA-Ventura split. CA-43 is the only LA-OC split. CA-31 is plurality AACVAP. CA-34 includes majority-white western Hawthorne, which has more in common with Manhattan Beach than with Inglewood.



My other LA map. No LA-OC splits. Everything else is mostly the same.

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My second San Diego map.
CA-50: Don’t be fooled by its East County core. It leans Democratic because of Imperial and parts of San Diego proper. CA-51: I used water contiguity to connect Imperial Beach, but the state highway 75, the free Coronado bridge, allows access to the rest of the district.

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My second OC map. CA-43: CA-39 equivalent. CA-44: CA-47 equivalent; Asian Belt district. CA-47: CA-48 equivalent. CA-48: Not an equivalent to any real district.

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SNIP

I mean I also obsesses over municipality cuts if there isn't an ethnic community in play. I think what we view differently is the LA city as a whole. Since LA is larger than a district, I view it as inevitably cut and therefore if a seat cuts into it, it is fine as long as they obeserve the neighborhoods.

Also...is that 26 even connected? There are three highways out of Santa Clarita to my knowledge: one west to the Oxnard Plain, on east to the Antelope Valley, and one north-southeast to LA and Bakersfield.  All other roads head some combination of north or east.  

Is my split of Hawthorne fine (majority-white western Hawthorne is with Manhattan Beach in Lieu's district and the rest of the city is in Waters' district)?

Please excuse the Riverside split on my CA-48 because it actually makes sense because it shares the same CoI as Fallbrook and rural Escondido.

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SNIP

I mean I also obsesses over municipality cuts if there isn't an ethnic community in play. I think what we view differently is the LA city as a whole. Since LA is larger than a district, I view it as inevitably cut and therefore if a seat cuts into it, it is fine as long as they obeserve the neighborhoods.

Also...is that 26 even connected? There are three highways out of Santa Clarita to my knowledge: one west to the Oxnard Plain, on east to the Antelope Valley, and one north-southeast to LA and Bakersfield.  All other roads head some combination of north or east.  

Is my split of Hawthorne fine (majority-white western Hawthorne is with Manhattan Beach in Lieu's district and the rest of the city is in Waters' district)?

Please excuse the Riverside split on my CA-48 because it actually makes sense because it shares the same CoI as Fallbrook and rural Escondido.

Imperial cannot go with the white areas. Needs to be with other Hispanics, even if the seat is not performing. This is in effect my SD alignment, except I put the east of the county in a white seat.

Don't be fooled by the East County core because it's still a Democratic district (Note: this pairing actually existed on the 1990s map in a GOP district. At least this pairing now leans Democratic). What's a performing seat? Is my map pairing Imperial with Riverside better?

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So in effect, LA is trapped right now by it's ethnic COIs. Microchange is possible between San Gabrial, the Asian seat, and their neighbors, but them and the San Fernando valley are locked under this pop arrangement unless I get some way to cycle pop from one side of LA to another.

It's really not. The only decision that needs made is whether you want one or two AA-based seats. By looking at the population statistics we know which area is losing a seat. Putting El Monte with Fullerton, or Beverly Hills with Burbank, or Santa Clarita with Oxnard, these aren't viable solutions.

I have one plurality-AA seat (CA-31) and another AA access seat (CA-33).

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So in effect, LA is trapped right now by it's ethnic COIs. Microchange is possible between San Gabrial, the Asian seat, and their neighbors, but them and the San Fernando valley are locked under this pop arrangement unless I get some way to cycle pop from one side of LA to another.

It's really not. The only decision that needs made is whether you want one or two AA-based seats. By looking at the population statistics we know which area is losing a seat. Putting El Monte with Fullerton, or Beverly Hills with Burbank, or Santa Clarita with Oxnard, these aren't viable solutions.

I have one plurality-AA seat (CA-31) and another AA access seat (CA-33).

What are the numbers?

34% (plurality in CVAP) AACVAP in CA-31 and 36% AACVAP in CA-33.