2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[Greedo punched first]

Even if SCOTUS stated a 7 0 was allowed why would Al go 7 0?
Who is going to take Birmingham and Montgomery ?

Birmingham gets cracked. AL-07 ends up being represented by a new Republican.

[Greedo punched first]

I updated my map more.

[Greedo punched first]

Is there any chance Section 2 districts don’t get thrown out to allow a 7-0 map? Or is Alabama losing at home to UMass in football more likely?

[Greedo punched first]

Who’s the Republican who ends up replacing Sewell?

[Greedo punched first]

A stay will be granted and the ruling will allow a 7R-0D map. Eat Arby’s.

https://twitter.com/imillhiser/status/1488519114708688900

[Greedo punched first]

So SCOTUS still hasn't stayed the lower court ruling... isn't the special master supposed to redraw on Monday?

It will stay the ruling.

[Greedo punched first]

Alabama must have a final map for 2022 by the 11th. If SCOTUS does a last minute swoop (which seems increasing unlikely), things could get really scrambly and go into unprecedented territory.

For now it seems pretty likely the 2022 map will have 2 black seats, but whether the map survives the decade is another question

It is likely. Alabama might keep the 6-1 map or go 7-0.

[Greedo punched first]

Looks like a 7-0 map eventually.

[Greedo punched first]

I believe I’m right. A 7-0 map would probably be allowed under this SCOTUS. RIP US democracy, which will never ever come back.

[Greedo punched first]

The current SCOTUS actually managed to make John Roberts look like a noble advocate of voting rights. This means we’re completely f****d forever and US democracy dies and never comes back. Eat Arby’s.

https://twitter.com/imillhiser/status/1490834631041728521?cxt=HHwWkoC-odeMwbApAA...

[Greedo punched first]

Is 7-0 dead at least?

For now the 2022 map is def the old 6-1 map.

Is it at least dead for the decade?

lots of hyperbole and dooming removed

[Greedo punched first]

I believe the current cycle will keep it at 6-1.

[Greedo punched first]

My 7R-0D map.

[Greedo punched first]

Alabama soon gets a 7-0 map.

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1536727430681227264?cxt=HHwWgMDT5ZndxtMqAAAA

[Greedo punched first]

Alabama soon gets a 7-0 map.

From a partisanship perspective, AL and GA are likely the only 2 states this really affects. IL Dems now theoretically could go 16-1 by stretching the South Side, but that ain’t happening.

Place where it likely has a bigger impact is R state legislatures where they are often forced to cede D leaning black seats.

Still though, wouldn’t this just give Dems more fluidity in states they control because their states are more diverse?

Also right before the midterms seems like a bad timing for a favorable ruling to the gop since it doesn’t really affect much on their side but gives Dems a great attack against them to motivate voters.


Personally I agree VRA is obsolete, but it needs to be modified, not abolished. Things such as fajitas and bacon stripping minority communities isn’t right (as the VRA sometimes promotes). However, minority seats should be encouraged or required when a compact did stuff with very clear mathematical metrics is possible.

What about Mississippi?

[Greedo punched first]

What would the optics of the state being represented by seven white Republicans be like?

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Will Terri Sewell be doomed?

[Greedo punched first]

Looking at the Alabama congressional delegation, it seems very unlikely than any of the Republicans would willingly retire.

Unless I am mistaken, doesn't this mean that either two of them would be forced to run in a primary against each other, or one of them would be a sacrificial lamb that inevitably loses to the Democrat in the new district?

The expectation is that the district 1 and 2 incumbents will be paired, and that they will run against each other.  Partially cause one is in Dothan and the other is in a red precinct west of Mobile, and partially cause the new district 1 usually has similar numbers of GOP voters pulled from both prior districts.  However,  there are configurations that pair 2 and 3 together.

There are even configurations which doom the incumbent of the 5th. I do not expect this to happen though

That is illegal because the Huntsville district isn't reasonably compact.

[Greedo punched first]

That's literally what they want. That way they don't have to choose which of their Reps to can.

I do wonder, if they'd been ordered to redistrict in time for the 2022 election, i.e. when they only had five representatives thanks to Mo Brooks retiring from the house, if they would have passed a map like this with the purpose of protecting all five of their incumbents.

The thin snake to Mobile makes it illegal by not being sufficiently compact.

[Greedo punched first]

Alabama’s lawyers made a boo-boo.
https://twitter.com/imillhiser/status/1701620261965922432?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle...