HI-SEN: Thomas Edward White (R) in

[Greedo punched first]

Safe D, but Hawaii now has a GOP candidate. Vermont is now the only state without a Republican running for Senate.

[Greedo punched first]

The Vermont filing deadline is May 31st.

[Greedo punched first]

If Hirono does pass away in office, Hanabusa would appoint another Japanese-Hawaiian (or possibly just herself) to her Senate seat, so it’s win-win either way.

I think she'd appoint Gabbard actually...more to avoid a messy primary in the special, as Gabbard is certainly going to run for the seat.

Gabbard did endorse Hanabusa for Governor, so I could see Hanabusa returning the favour, but Hanabusa and Gabbard have never really been natural allies in past, so I’m not too sure. It also seems like Hanabusa is the de facto leader of the Hawaii Democratic establishment that Gabbard has never really fit into.

I think Hanabusa will be hard-pressed into appointing a member of the AJA community into Hirono’s seat, as Hirono could potentially be the last Japanese-American in Congress from Hawaii due to demographic changes. They’ve been used to having at least one of Hawaii’s Senate seats since Hawaii was made a state, and I don’t think it’s something they’re going to give up to Gabbard easily.

I doubt that – there are plenty of Japanese Americans in Hawaii politics still, and Kaniela Ing (part Japanese) and Beth Fukumoto are currently running for Congress.

Ing (who is polling at 2%) might as well have been disowned by the entire Japanese community after his Inouye comments, and Fukumoto’ is also going to have an uphill battle, seeing as she’s an outsider trying to win the support of a very machine-based community.

The Japanese community is concentrated in HI-1 and not HI-2, so it’s unlikely that Gabbard’s successor will be a Japanese-American, and it’s very likely that either Kim or Chin wins the HI-1 race, which leaves the Japanese community locked out of the Congressional delegation unless Hirono’s replacement is a Japanese-American.

A Japanese-American candidate could win a House or Senate seat. Ethnic background isn't everything when it comes to picking a candidate. In California, polls show Dianne Feinstein winning the Hispanic vote easily, even with a serious Hispanic candidate (Kevin de Leon) in the race. Platform and qualification are more important to voters.

[Greedo punched first]

If Hirono does pass away in office, Hanabusa would appoint another Japanese-Hawaiian (or possibly just herself) to her Senate seat, so it’s win-win either way.

I think she'd appoint Gabbard actually...more to avoid a messy primary in the special, as Gabbard is certainly going to run for the seat.

Gabbard did endorse Hanabusa for Governor, so I could see Hanabusa returning the favour, but Hanabusa and Gabbard have never really been natural allies in past, so I’m not too sure. It also seems like Hanabusa is the de facto leader of the Hawaii Democratic establishment that Gabbard has never really fit into.

I think Hanabusa will be hard-pressed into appointing a member of the AJA community into Hirono’s seat, as Hirono could potentially be the last Japanese-American in Congress from Hawaii due to demographic changes. They’ve been used to having at least one of Hawaii’s Senate seats since Hawaii was made a state, and I don’t think it’s something they’re going to give up to Gabbard easily.

I doubt that – there are plenty of Japanese Americans in Hawaii politics still, and Kaniela Ing (part Japanese) and Beth Fukumoto are currently running for Congress.

Ing (who is polling at 2%) might as well have been disowned by the entire Japanese community after his Inouye comments, and Fukumoto’ is also going to have an uphill battle, seeing as she’s an outsider trying to win the support of a very machine-based community.

The Japanese community is concentrated in HI-1 and not HI-2, so it’s unlikely that Gabbard’s successor will be a Japanese-American, and it’s very likely that either Kim or Chin wins the HI-1 race, which leaves the Japanese community locked out of the Congressional delegation unless Hirono’s replacement is a Japanese-American.

A Japanese-American candidate could win a House or Senate seat. Ethnic background isn't everything when it comes to picking a candidate. In California, polls show Dianne Feinstein winning the Hispanic vote easily, even with a serious Hispanic candidate (Kevin de Leon) in the race. Platform and qualification are more important to voters.

Hawaii is an entirely different world. Political alliances can transcend racial groups, and more and more Hawaiians are mixed, but there are still significant differences in voting habits between the ethnicities, even within the Democratic electorate. It wasn’t a coincidence that Hanabusa won a large majority of Asian-American voters in the 2014 Senate primary, while Schatz got similar numbers among white voters.

Voters are naturally drawn to candidates that have similar backgrounds and upbringing, that’s why Obama got over 80% of the black vote in the 2008 Democratic Party against another white political figure the black community knew well and actually liked. Exceptions always exist, like Steve Cohen in Memphis or Lauren Underwood in IL-14, but again, they’re the exception, not the rule.

Is Feinstein's likely win of the Hispanic vote against de Leon in California an exception?

[Greedo punched first]

If Hirono does pass away in office, Hanabusa would appoint another Japanese-Hawaiian (or possibly just herself) to her Senate seat, so it’s win-win either way.

I think she'd appoint Gabbard actually...more to avoid a messy primary in the special, as Gabbard is certainly going to run for the seat.

Gabbard did endorse Hanabusa for Governor, so I could see Hanabusa returning the favour, but Hanabusa and Gabbard have never really been natural allies in past, so I’m not too sure. It also seems like Hanabusa is the de facto leader of the Hawaii Democratic establishment that Gabbard has never really fit into.

I think Hanabusa will be hard-pressed into appointing a member of the AJA community into Hirono’s seat, as Hirono could potentially be the last Japanese-American in Congress from Hawaii due to demographic changes. They’ve been used to having at least one of Hawaii’s Senate seats since Hawaii was made a state, and I don’t think it’s something they’re going to give up to Gabbard easily.

I doubt that – there are plenty of Japanese Americans in Hawaii politics still, and Kaniela Ing (part Japanese) and Beth Fukumoto are currently running for Congress.

Ing (who is polling at 2%) might as well have been disowned by the entire Japanese community after his Inouye comments, and Fukumoto’ is also going to have an uphill battle, seeing as she’s an outsider trying to win the support of a very machine-based community.

The Japanese community is concentrated in HI-1 and not HI-2, so it’s unlikely that Gabbard’s successor will be a Japanese-American, and it’s very likely that either Kim or Chin wins the HI-1 race, which leaves the Japanese community locked out of the Congressional delegation unless Hirono’s replacement is a Japanese-American.

A Japanese-American candidate could win a House or Senate seat. Ethnic background isn't everything when it comes to picking a candidate. In California, polls show Dianne Feinstein winning the Hispanic vote easily, even with a serious Hispanic candidate (Kevin de Leon) in the race. Platform and qualification are more important to voters.

Hawaii is an entirely different world. Political alliances can transcend racial groups, and more and more Hawaiians are mixed, but there are still significant differences in voting habits between the ethnicities, even within the Democratic electorate. It wasn’t a coincidence that Hanabusa won a large majority of Asian-American voters in the 2014 Senate primary, while Schatz got similar numbers among white voters.

Voters are naturally drawn to candidates that have similar backgrounds and upbringing, that’s why Obama got over 80% of the black vote in the 2008 Democratic Party against another white political figure the black community knew well and actually liked. Exceptions always exist, like Steve Cohen in Memphis or Mia Love in Utah, but again, they’re the exception, not the rule.

I think, in general, a non-white candidate will have an easier time winning in a majority-white area against a white candidate than a white candidate vs. a nonwhite candidate in a majority nonwhite area. Although race doesn’t play as big a role in candidate preference than you think it does.

Take the number of minority members of congress from white majority districts vs. white members from nonwhite districts (besides Cohen and Gene Green, are there any?)

CA-47 and CA-14, and CA-15 are majority-minority, but represented by white Democrats. Polls show Feinstein winning Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego counties. Not sure about Imperial. Did O'Rourke win the Hispanic vote in the primary? Texas also has many smaller counties, unlike California, making it easier for lesser-known candidates to win counties. Polls show de Leon losing Hispanics by a wide margin. O'Rourke isn't as well-known as Feinstein, and doesn't have the advantage of incumbency.

[Greedo punched first]

If Hirono does pass away in office, Hanabusa would appoint another Japanese-Hawaiian (or possibly just herself) to her Senate seat, so it’s win-win either way.

I think she'd appoint Gabbard actually...more to avoid a messy primary in the special, as Gabbard is certainly going to run for the seat.

Gabbard did endorse Hanabusa for Governor, so I could see Hanabusa returning the favour, but Hanabusa and Gabbard have never really been natural allies in past, so I’m not too sure. It also seems like Hanabusa is the de facto leader of the Hawaii Democratic establishment that Gabbard has never really fit into.

I think Hanabusa will be hard-pressed into appointing a member of the AJA community into Hirono’s seat, as Hirono could potentially be the last Japanese-American in Congress from Hawaii due to demographic changes. They’ve been used to having at least one of Hawaii’s Senate seats since Hawaii was made a state, and I don’t think it’s something they’re going to give up to Gabbard easily.

I doubt that – there are plenty of Japanese Americans in Hawaii politics still, and Kaniela Ing (part Japanese) and Beth Fukumoto are currently running for Congress.

Ing (who is polling at 2%) might as well have been disowned by the entire Japanese community after his Inouye comments, and Fukumoto’ is also going to have an uphill battle, seeing as she’s an outsider trying to win the support of a very machine-based community.

The Japanese community is concentrated in HI-1 and not HI-2, so it’s unlikely that Gabbard’s successor will be a Japanese-American, and it’s very likely that either Kim or Chin wins the HI-1 race, which leaves the Japanese community locked out of the Congressional delegation unless Hirono’s replacement is a Japanese-American.

A Japanese-American candidate could win a House or Senate seat. Ethnic background isn't everything when it comes to picking a candidate. In California, polls show Dianne Feinstein winning the Hispanic vote easily, even with a serious Hispanic candidate (Kevin de Leon) in the race. Platform and qualification are more important to voters.

Hawaii is an entirely different world. Political alliances can transcend racial groups, and more and more Hawaiians are mixed, but there are still significant differences in voting habits between the ethnicities, even within the Democratic electorate. It wasn’t a coincidence that Hanabusa won a large majority of Asian-American voters in the 2014 Senate primary, while Schatz got similar numbers among white voters.

Voters are naturally drawn to candidates that have similar backgrounds and upbringing, that’s why Obama got over 80% of the black vote in the 2008 Democratic Party against another white political figure the black community knew well and actually liked. Exceptions always exist, like Steve Cohen in Memphis or Mia Love in Utah, but again, they’re the exception, not the rule.

I think, in general, a non-white candidate will have an easier time winning in a majority-white area against a white candidate than a white candidate vs. a nonwhite candidate in a majority nonwhite area. Although race doesn’t play as big a role in candidate preference than you think it does.

Take the number of minority members of congress from white majority districts vs. white members from nonwhite districts (besides Cohen and Gene Green, are there any?)

Yes, there are more than just Cohen and Green. In California, there's Jackie Speier, Eric Swalwell, and Alan Lowenthal.