CA-GOV: Newsom vs. ???

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When will the next poll come out?

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I really don't understand why there is 'hype' right now around Allen. I mean look at his fundraising:



Now, in a state as big and as diverse as California, it is understandably expensive to run a campaign. This is not even including the fact that the twin Media Markets of SF and LA make it the most expensive non-swing state to run a campaign. Money in California therefore traditionally has acted as a hard ceiling - if you can't run fund campaign, people won't know who you are, and you won't get over 5%.

This is why despite the concern trolls, we are still on track for D v D.

The gubernatorial race is likely D vs. D. Is the Senate race more uncertain? The latest Senate poll (which is the only one with more than two declared candidates) indicates a D vs. R race. The hypothetical Senate primary poll with Kevin de Leon and John Cox shows a Feinstein vs. Cox runoff.

Latest Senate poll:
Dianne Feinstein (D): 34%
Timothy Charles Kalemkarian (R): 6%
Caren Lancona (R): 5%
Patrick Little (R): 5%
Stephen James Schrader (R): 5%
Kevin de Leon (D): 4%
Others: 10%

Primary poll with John Cox:
Dianne Feinstein (D): 40%
John Cox (R): 32%
Kevin de Leon (D): 14%
Undecided: 14%

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Ro Khanna endorses Newsom.

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Pace/USC poll: Close race for second between Villaraigosa, Cox, and Chiang.

Gavin Newsom (D): 29%
Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 11%
John Cox (R): 10%
John Chiang (D): 9%
Travis Allen (R): 8%
Delaine Eastin (D): 6%
Doug Ose (R): 4%
Other: 4%
Undecided: 18%

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This race could be D vs. R if Doug Ose drops out.

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What's this?

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Chiang is surging. One poll shows him tied with Villaraigosa.

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Over 40 candidates are running. The second place finisher in the primary likely gets 7-15%.

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Over 40 candidates are running. The second place finisher in the primary likely gets 7-15%.

The second place finisher won't get <10%.

It's still unlikely the second place finisher gets 20+%. Likely gets 10-15%. The second place finisher in the Senate primary might get <10%, which has been shown in a poll.

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Chiang is surging. One poll shows him tied with Villaraigosa.

I want to see a Chiang vs Villaraigosa runoff.

Another possible Newsom scandal could cause that.

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Could Chiang make it to the next round if another scandal about Newsom or Villaraigosa emerges?

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Could Chiang make it to the next round if another scandal about Newsom or Villaraigosa emerges?

I think so. He would have to raise his profile and take some highly specific stands on issues he tends to gloss over, however. Otherwise a lot of support would just shift from Newsom to Villaraigosa or vice versa.

Which counties would Chiang win in a runoff against Newsom?

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ERM64man, I wanna know some of your predictions on this race...

- Will the primary be close? Who finishes in the top 2?
- How will Chiang & Eastin do in the primaries?
- Who do the remaining 20-25% of undecided primary voters move to?
- Will someone other than Newsom or Villaarigosa win counties? If so, which ones?
- Which candidate stands the best chance of defeating Newsom?
- What would Newsom vs Villaraigosa/Chiang/Eastin/Allen runoffs look like to you?

- Newsom finishes first in the primary. Villaraigosa, Chiang, and Cox all have a good chance to finish second.
- In a Newsom/Chiang runoff, Chiang wins Los Angeles (his home county) and Orange counties(with the help from the large cities of Irvine, Huntington Beach, and Garden Grove). I don't know about the other Southern California counties or the Central Valley. Chiang might win Ventura County
- In a Newsom/Eastin runoff, Eastin only wins Mendocino, Humboldt, Trinity, and maybe some "State of Jefferson" counties.
- Allen would lose every county except some "State of Jefferson" counties due to a sexual harassment scandal. Allen doesn't even have a shot to make the top 2 anymore.
- In a Newsom/Villaraigosa runoff, Villaraigosa wins Los Angeles (his home county), Orange (with help from Santa Ana, West Anaheim, and East Garden Grove), Imperial, Riverside, San Bernardino, and many Central Valley counties. Villaraigosa might win San Diego County (especially if he wins all the neighboring counties).
- Chiang has the best chance to defeat Newsom.
- The undecideds go to many different candidates, some serious candidates and some unknowns. Many undecided GOP voters will likely go to Cox.

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51 candidates are now in the race.

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http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-gop-candidate-for-california-governor-1518478473-htmlstory.html

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Damaging?

Cox is toast. That is political implosion for a candidate in California.

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Other random candidates combined will get at least 3%. When does the next poll come out?

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Why is Amanda Renteria running? Renteria might siphon votes from Villaraigosa in the Central Valley.

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If Renteria costs Villaraigosa second place, is it Chiang or Cox who advances?

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Chiang supports single-payer. Villaraigosa is the only Democrat who doesn't.

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Which counties would Newsom lose in these hypothetical D vs. D matchups?

Newsom vs. Villaraigosa: Which ones does Villaraigosa win?
Newsom vs. Chiang: Which counties does Chiang win?
Newsom vs. Eastin: Which counties does Eastin win?

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The latest PPIC poll shows Villaraigosa winning Los Angeles County.

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The California Democratic Party will not be endorsing any gubernatorial candidate.

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Is Newsom vs Villaraigosa guaranteed at this point? Don't get me wrong, I'd love Chiang to advance, but as long as the top two democrats keep amassing establishment support and union endorsements, there's very little space for anyone else to muscle in. If Eastin dropped out and endorsed Chiang, or either Cox/Allen dropped out to endorse the other, things could change, but right now the race looks pretty static.

Newsom vs. Villaraigosa is not guaranteed. The latest poll shows Villaraigosa and Chiang tied.

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With Newsom failing to receive the endorsement at the convention, how might this affect the race?

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Do party endorsements even matter? My state assembly representative is a Republican in a Democratic leaning district. The Democrat in the last election had the party endorsement and President Obama's and still lost. My district voted 64.5-29.2% for Clinton.

Party endorsements don't always matter. Feinstein won the 1992 primary despite Gray Davis receiving the endorsement.