OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[MarkD]

My only observation to make at this point is that I will miss Portman. I appreciate the fact that one of his reasons for retiring is that he is sick and tired of the partisanship in the Senate. That reminds me of a similar statement made almost 30 years ago by Colorado Democrat Tim Wirth (1987 - 1993), who decided to retire with only one term in the Senate with one reason for doing so was that he was disappointed that the Senate turned out to be just as partisan as the House had been. We need more Senators who think that way, although given that we have Senate Leaders like Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer, it is understandable to look the whole situation over and conclude that there's no end in sight. I will also miss the fact that he was one of the few Republican Senators who supported SSM because he loves and supports his openly gay son.

[MarkD]

I think too many posters in this thread are underestimating the Democrats' chances at flipping this seat. I think the Democratic Party in Ohio has a strong floor of at least 46% to work with -- all of their candidates in 2018 for state executive offices got at least that much. In the 16 races for the U.S. House, the Democrats collectively got a little over 47%. And I think the GOP is going to have poor voter turnout in 2022, because of Trump emphasizing his belief in massive voter fraud, causing a sizable portion of the GOP base to stay home out of distrust in the integrity of the election system. I expect there to be lower voter turnout in 2022 than there was in 2018 because of Trump poisoning his party's trust in the electoral process.

Plus, we don't know yet who will be the two nominees, or where will Biden's popularity be at by October 2022.

[MarkD]

I wonder if the field of remaining Republicans running for the primary have decided they need to distance themselves from and criticize Sen. Portman's stance on same-sex marriage? You know, say something like: I really admire a lot about Sen. Portman's legacy as a conservative, except for one big and important thing: he shouldn't have abandoned the traditional definition of marriage. Trust me, that's one way I will be significantly better than him. Maybe Timkin wouldn't say such a thing, even though she thinks it, because she's the one who got Portman's endorsement, and she wouldn't want to cross him by outwardly disagreeing with him about anything.

Or maybe there's some other issue that they might try to argue that Portman is less-than-consistently-conservative-about-it, but-I-will-be-perfectly-conservative-about-it. In other words, who's racing so hard to the far right that they would be willing to say: Portman is a RINO, and I promise you I won't be like that! I'll be better than him!

[MarkD]

https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1568585673929621506?s=46&t=fbkdTuJDJKl_Vb...

Tim Ryan is running a good campaign, but he's going to lose simply because of Ohio's Republican lean and polarization. I think this explains why Vance has not bothered to campaign and has sat on his laurels. He knows that he is virtually guaranteed that seat on a silver platter. He doesn't need to lift a finger.

That's a good way to lose.  Ohio may have a Republican lean, but it's not Alabama or Wyoming.

It's not, but after seeing the result in that state two years ago, when it had seemed like Biden could win there, I'm not that optimistic. Trump is supposed to hold a rally for Vance soon, and he's trying to ride his coattails to coast to victory.

Don't just compare this year to 2020; how about comparing this year to 2018? Compare this Senate election to Sherrod Brown's reelection four years ago. This year, we've got the Dobbs ruling, which is quite unpopular, and is going to be a huge motivating factor for pro-choice voters - in both parties - who, for decades, relaxed their political muscles and did not bother to try to vote for pro-choice politicians because they felt they could rely on the sanctity of the Roe precedent. I think anger over the abortion issue is going to mitigate the phenomenon of this year being a Biden mid-term. I'm not saying that Tim Ryan is going to do as well as Brown did four years ago; a Ryan win will be narrower than Brown's by probably about half the margin. Probably about a half dozen counties that went for Brown in 2018 will flip to Vance. But even if Ryan wins only ten counties, if those ten are mostly the biggest counties (Athens, Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Lucas, Mahoning, Montgomery, Portage, Summit, and Trumbull), then that could put Ryan over the top.

I'm not rooting for Tim Ryan to win - I think I'd be most likely to vote for one of the independents if I lived in Ohio - but I do think he is likely going to win, due to Vance's inept campaign, and that Ohio is not the rock-ribbed Republican state you think it is. If Brown could win by nearly 7 points four years ago, I can see Ryan winning this year by 3 or 4 points.