West African Crisis

[Hindsight was 2020]

I wonder what will happen to Bazoum? While he’s alive he will be a symbol of resistance against the coup but on the other if they kill him that risks some form of Western intervention as he is viewed as the legitimate head of government by the West

[Hindsight was 2020]

ECOWAS is the Economic Community of West African States. Only in the junta's fantasies would this be actually happening.

https://twitter.com/GIntelWatch/status/1685391995026407425?s=20

Don’t be too sure of that
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1685632390855532544?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1686715178694438912?s=12

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1686886184193048576?s=20

Damn seriously looks like were about to see a big war in west Africa 🙁

[Hindsight was 2020]

France's neocolonialism isn't going well.

Again such a lazy trope.

Of course the origin of these issues is France and the UK and their horrible neo-colonial legacy.

But there's a very effective spotlight being shone on the West while Russia having a PMC there is apprently...ah-OK?

Maoist-Lin Biaoist rhetoric from people who aren't even on the ground there or have never been to an African country. Y'all need to stop listening to Radio War Nerd and masturbating to Jason Unruhe videos.

Asking Jfern not to be a red-brown tankie is asking a fish not to swim

[Hindsight was 2020]

Calling France neocolonialist in Africa is also “tankie” now?



It’s really becoming the Western scapegoat word for any criticism towards any Western country. Poor innocent French who only ever wanted to help Africa!

No Jfern is a tankie due to his long history of tankie style posting I’ve seen him make going back to 2016 when I first joined

[Hindsight was 2020]

Those cheering on the coup because of reflexive anti-Americanism would do well to note that the US still hasn't condemned the coup, whereas the Russian government has, at least, criticised it as anti-constitutional.

The US and France are not a united front, and neither are Wagner/social media grifters and the Russian government.

This past year and half has really changed my worldview on key issues and figures. I really didn’t realize how intellectually shallow in relation to foreign policy issues a disturbingly large number of leftists are

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not sure if the meme makes sense though.

I wish more average people in the west agreed with those non-interventionist views of mine, like you suggest with the frequency distribution! If anything it feels the exact opposite with everyone buying interventionism as a solution sold by propaganda.

“Military coups overthrowing democratic governments is bad”
Red Velvet: not sure if that makes sense

[Hindsight was 2020]

For all the condemnation Red Velvet and others here throw at liberals here for only caring about this crisis due to the Russian part, they themselves have shown a far greater ignorance of the topic. Just doing basic research into the issue shows that there is nothing about Bazoum presidency that comes off problematic (unless you find trying to improve women’s education access and increasing the fight against ISIS to be bad) and that the reason for this coup was Bazoum was planning on firing the head of this coup Gen. Tchiani. These coup plotters are just running the Idi Amin playbook of playing up anti-Western imperialism rhetoric and platitudes to dress up a self serving power grab.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It's awfully rich of you to insist that the other people in this thread are unconcerned with the material situation when you're the one ignoring the ample evidence that the Nigerien people do not want this and instead philosophizing about whether there's really any first-principles moral difference between democracy and military dictatorship. It's especially curious to see this from a Brazilian leftist of all nationalities and political leanings.

Not sure why? If I can position myself in favor or against Brazilian military coup supported by US in 1964 is necessarily because I AM Brazilian and I am close to the issue and I know that the Republic of 45 period, however unstable and polarized, was much better for the country than the Military Dictatorship that followed it.

I am not going to pretend that I am a Niger PhD specialist like people suddenly have all become so yeah, I can be morally neutral! Especially on something that is unlikely to get explored by the media beyond the surface for an expanded knowledge.

What I see from Niger is some people who are against it and some who support it. But we don’t even know their perspectives because western media doesn’t really a damn about them, look at how the coverage AND discussion of this is all circled around how some Nigeriens were using Russian flags.

What are “revolutions” other than coups that people approve of because they consider them morally good or valid? Wasn’t Euromaidan a good revolution because people liked Ukrainians sticking up to their “oppressors” in Russia? So why Africans sticking up to their “oppresors” in France that much more morally unacceptable? Because France is democracy and Russia is not it somehow changes the way you’re exploited?

There’s an instinct of self-survival and tribalism in this that I totally understand and think it’s 100% valid, but it’s hindered by the hypocrisy of the false narrative of wanting to “spread democracy” everywhere in the world - which only substituted the “Capitalism is better than Communism” one as the propaganda instrument to validate Western superiority and intervention/control over other places in a way that looks nice in history books.

In fact, it’s exactly because I am Brazilian Leftist that I understand that me or my country will NEVER be included in the same “global club” you are, which puts our interests in conflict. And that’s okay?

For example, you suggest the interest in Niger events is mostly driven by a real concern about Nigerien democracy more than it is about a symbolic “win” for Russia. Okay then. If there’s really so much unanimous support for democracy from the government and the people nowadays (good thing!), then why don’t they publically apologize to Brazil for 1964? Or all the other coups or invasions on democratic nations - since you still want to believe it’s all justified as long as the nation is not a democracy - they supported throughout history?

You see, I don’t hate US or the West like you apparently believe that I do, what I just HATE is that it’s impossible to have a direct conversation with you guys because you’re exactly just like the Russians to me in the sense you really fully absorb the propaganda that is fed to you, about being heroes who are supposed to spread and ensure democracy all around the world.

I believe democracy isn’t something anyone outside is responsible for other than citizens of their own country. Whether a change of system is a “coup” or a “revolution” is something only internal dynamics and the people’s own fight will dictate. People outside can obviously have their opinions but the FIGHT itself can only be done by people inside because they’re the ones who will have to sustain and protect that system.

But if anyone points it out they either are called anti-democratic (for not believing that foreign interventionism for the the sake of democracy effectively works in practice, neither it’s desirable) or there’s some speech about hating Americans which puts them as victims or something.

I feel like this debate we’re having is a constant since the 90s, where this interventionism is used harshly and always with the presented narrative of taking down the anti-democratic leader and to implement democracy. How much of it has really worked so far in practice, at least in the terms of the publicly presented goal? Societies need a specific social and cultural backing to sustain democracy, you can’t just go there and put one. It’s just robotic to believe otherwise.

Of course, you should never do stuff to interfere on ENDING democracies that aren’t convenient for you when they don’t align with your interests either. That’s what being a true democrat means.

I just don’t understand why there’s always high concern about the moral theatrics by all places when people would behave in the same exact way if you presented them with the realpolitik argument over the “moral” one. It would be so refreshing and easier to respect if people just got directly to the point.

In the end of the day, people in their everyday lives want better conditions of living and that matters much more to them than who their government is. If the new one can present that and fulfill people’s demands, that’s what will validate it as a “revolution”. If the government flops, that’s what will validate it as a “coup” internally. And I simply don’t have the tarot cards to say or predict what will happen, neither I have access to listen enough Nigeriens from all kinds as a whole to form an opinion other than one of neutrality on this.

Might be because Euromaidan was the general population taking to the streets to protest the government, the president leaving, and elections following soon after. Not the military storming in and saying they’re in charge. For all the lectures you love to give everyone here of not caring about Niger, you’ve been going out of your way to show you actually don’t care by downplaying a military junta seizing power who’s motivation for doing so (that a simple 2 minute google search would tell you) was not losing their jobs

[Hindsight was 2020]

Anyway back to this threads actual topic https://twitter.com/casusbellii/status/1688309963645448192?s=12

[Hindsight was 2020]

Now, while the events are not commandeered by Russia, I can see this regional spat turning out like another Yemeni crisis where this is a blessing. A quagmire as a multi-front war distracts American allies into diverting resources elsewhere. In this case Niger is Yemen taking the attention of France, just as the Gulf states diverted resources from Syria to fight closer to home.

The United States would have to choose to be dragged into three military crises that cost an excessive amount of money–West Africa, Haiti, and Ukraine–instead of the two it faced back with Syria and Yemen which it lost by all measures. The cherry is that these roadblocks are caused by the US alone–they started the disastrous Timber Sycamore program to arm Syrian Jihadists, they decided to invade Iraq and purposefully destabilized it to the point of creating an international enemy called ISIS, they abandoned and punished the Yemenis by withholding aid in response to the invasion of Iraq and Saleh's disapproval, US international schemes and programs resulted in the overthrow of both African nations and Ukraine.

All due to hubris and inability to recognize patterns that result in them getting boomeranged on.

Rooting on Africans dying to own the West? In no way is a conflict here a blessing and you’re giddiness over it’s prospects because it could theoretically hurt the US is sickening

[Hindsight was 2020]

Now, while the events are not commandeered by Russia, I can see this regional spat turning out like another Yemeni crisis where this is a blessing. A quagmire as a multi-front war distracts American allies into diverting resources elsewhere. In this case Niger is Yemen taking the attention of France, just as the Gulf states diverted resources from Syria to fight closer to home.

The United States would have to choose to be dragged into three military crises that cost an excessive amount of money–West Africa, Haiti, and Ukraine–instead of the two it faced back with Syria and Yemen which it lost by all measures. The cherry is that these roadblocks are caused by the US alone–they started the disastrous Timber Sycamore program to arm Syrian Jihadists, they decided to invade Iraq and purposefully destabilized it to the point of creating an international enemy called ISIS, they abandoned and punished the Yemenis by withholding aid in response to the invasion of Iraq and Saleh's disapproval, US international schemes and programs resulted in the overthrow of both African nations and Ukraine.

All due to hubris and inability to recognize patterns that result in them getting boomeranged on.

Rooting on Africans dying to own the West? In no way is a conflict here a blessing and you’re giddiness over it’s prospects because it could theoretically hurt the US is sickening

I was pointing out the sort of greek tragedy of it all where, in creating monstrous periods of human suffering, great powers kneecap themselves in such fashion.

Now, while the events are not commandeered by Russia, I can see this regional spat turning out like another Yemeni crisis where this is a blessing. A quagmire as a multi-front war distracts American allies into diverting resources elsewhere. In this case Niger is Yemen taking the attention of France, just as the Gulf states diverted resources from Syria to fight closer to home.

The United States would have to choose to be dragged into three military crises that cost an excessive amount of money–West Africa, Haiti, and Ukraine–instead of the two it faced back with Syria and Yemen which it lost by all measures. The cherry is that these roadblocks are caused by the US alone–they started the disastrous Timber Sycamore program to arm Syrian Jihadists, they decided to invade Iraq and purposefully destabilized it to the point of creating an international enemy called ISIS, they abandoned and punished the Yemenis by withholding aid in response to the invasion of Iraq and Saleh's disapproval, US international schemes and programs resulted in the overthrow of both African nations and Ukraine.

All due to hubris and inability to recognize patterns that result in them getting boomeranged on.

You have to be more concerned about the budget of your PRC, which is flooding Africa with USD billions for publicly unknown purposes.

They are quite open about the cash being a mixture of infrastructure spending, investment, and bribery. What is even more funny is that these deals are much better than anything the European powers, World Bank, IMF, and the USA especially are offering which is tantamount to forceful loansharking comparatively.

Normally most people don’t call greek tragedies “blessings”

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1689733715033776128?s=12
It looks like war is on 😕

[Hindsight was 2020]

just because a President with a D next to their name on the ballot is president

Don't you play that card with me, you presumptuous f**kwit. My position on international issues has been clear and unwavering for over a decade now. I know you can't conceive of someone having a principled stance on democracy because your only criterion for assessing a regime is which geopolitical block it belongs to, but you could try to be a bit less lazy with your mischaracterizations.

Oh honey get your eyes checked, you clearly need it if you think I look like you or spelled out your self-projection.

You’re one to talk the only reason you’ve being showing soft sympathy for the junta is due to its anti-West platitudes

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1695329307441201237?s=20
https://twitter.com/casusbellii/status/1695086735758090690?s=20
Looks like it’s about to go down 😕

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dang it, this will suck. As much as I hated the coup, the eco was intervention is probably going to be even worse.

Forum did you let Badger borrow your account? 😜