Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

But.....b-but tHeY aRe On ThE vErGe Of ToTaL vIcToRy!!!??!!!?!!!11!!!

God you fools are so delusional clearly Russia wasting like whole tank divisions last week for little to no gain will lead to the fall of Kyiv

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1775153015701262657

Another 1.2 million artillery shells for Ukraine?

At the latest UDCG meeting, Estonia informed the coalition that they have identified €2 billion-€3 billion worth of artillery ammunition available on the global market *in addition* to the ammo sourced by Czechia.

🇪🇪 Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur tells newspaper Postimees that deliveries could begin in 2 months if funding is secured. The available ammunition includes 122mm Grad rockets, and 122mm, 152mm & 155mm shells.

This is where Russia’s stubborn tactics these 6 months can bite them as ever since the house gop messed with aid, Russia got big ratio advantages in manpower and artillery and these used these advantages to just take Avdiivka after losing a ton in men and equipment and have since then been wasting a ton of manpower and equipment on human wave tactics on the small villages around Avdiivka and Robotyne and now we’re seeing the EU find a total of 2.5 million shells to send along with mobilization taking shape then Russia could be facing the prospect that they wasted this window for an actual breakthrough

[Hindsight was 2020]

Governing constraint for both sides in this war is manpower, neither side is going to run out of any other resource for continuing the war, hence why its in Ukraine's interest to try and win sooner rather than later, net manpower flows will eventually turn negative for the Ukrainian military at which point it will begin to contract in size which will allow Russian forces to push forward and occupy the country, only question is how many years away that point is, perhaps 3-4.

At current pace of losses vs production Russia is going to run out of equipment before that happens for Ukraine

[Hindsight was 2020]

Governing constraint for both sides in this war is manpower, neither side is going to run out of any other resource for continuing the war, hence why its in Ukraine's interest to try and win sooner rather than later, net manpower flows will eventually turn negative for the Ukrainian military at which point it will begin to contract in size which will allow Russian forces to push forward and occupy the country, only question is how many years away that point is, perhaps 3-4.

At current pace of losses vs production Russia is going to run out of equipment before that happens for Ukraine

True.

At current rates Russia should run out of weapons by the end of next year, and there is no sign of meaningfull russian production increases, both sides don't look capable of a serious offensive anymore.

There is a lot of panic and excitement over nothing but a few fields.

Russia’s on the ground notice this too
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1775722183056121954?s=12

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/MSZ_RP/status/1775901809120354438

We have decided to establish a NATO mission. This does not mean that we are going to war, but that we will now be able to use the Alliance's coordination, training, planning capabilities to support 🇺🇦 in a more coordinated way.

Based

[Hindsight was 2020]

This page has 17 posts on it and 11 of them are jaichind.

He never responds to anything anyone else is saying in the thread, and nobody ever responds to him.  There's no contribution to the discourse.  It's just taking up space -- a lot of space.

I'm assuming 90% of the forum has him on ignore at this point.  Because it's just spam.  Every single day a flood of posts "Ukraine is doomed!  Soldiers are fleeing!  Europeans in shambles!  Russia's economy is booming!  War production is off the charts!"  and it's been like this for over a year now.

It makes it difficult to have a real discussion in this thread.

Why do the mods continue to allow this?

And in general, why do the mods allow megathreads like this one to be taken over by one guy just dumping his RSS feed every single day?  This is far from the first time this has happened.

Funny enough because he barley responds to anyone he never really explains how despite as you said his year long “Ukraine is doomed” spam dump that the front lines barley move? It’s kinda hard to reconcile his “Ukraine military is falling apart and Russia’s mic is booming” with the daily frontline reports of “Russia monke runs at small village in the Donbas and losses 25 tanks and armored vehicles for no gains”

[Hindsight was 2020]

This page has 17 posts on it and 11 of them are jaichind.

He never responds to anything anyone else is saying in the thread, and nobody ever responds to him.  There's no contribution to the discourse.  It's just taking up space -- a lot of space.

I'm assuming 90% of the forum has him on ignore at this point.  Because it's just spam.  Every single day a flood of posts "Ukraine is doomed!  Soldiers are fleeing!  Europeans in shambles!  Russia's economy is booming!  War production is off the charts!"  and it's been like this for over a year now.

It makes it difficult to have a real discussion in this thread.

Why do the mods continue to allow this?

And in general, why do the mods allow megathreads like this one to be taken over by one guy just dumping his RSS feed every single day?  This is far from the first time this has happened.

Funny enough because he barley responds to anyone he never really explains how despite as you said his year long “Ukraine is doomed” spam dump that the front lines barley move? It’s kinda hard to reconcile his “Ukraine military is falling apart and Russia’s mic is booming” with the daily frontline reports of “Russia monke runs at small village in the Donbas and losses 25 tanks and armored vehicles for no gains”

This is incredibly misleading, I would ask you to find a single post where he says the Ukrainian army is collapsing or on the verge of collapse?

He has been pretty clear in multiple posts that he views this war, materially not morally, as similar to Union vs CSA.  In terms of relative demographic and industrial capacity that’s pretty close to spot on with the exception, of course, that Ukraine is not successfully blockaded and is receiving major material support from the West.  Still a nearly 1-4 demographic and 1-8 economic deficit will be very hard to overcome for Ukraine in the long term.  

These types of wars of attrition over the past few hundred years generally follow the pattern of the weaker yet pluckier side winning some major but not decisive victories prior to the stronger side mobilizing its full resources and eventually forcing the military collapse of the weaker side.  You could argue wars from Napoleonic to US Civil to WW 1/2 fitting that pattern.

Remains to be seen if that’s what happens here, political factors could get in the way,but certainly not an unreasonable expectation if Russia is fully committed to victory.

He posted a clickbait article literally titled “Ukraine are on verge of collapse” also comparing this to this civil war is ridiculous for several reason the most obvious being that the CSA didn’t have the whole of Europe backing them also by this point in the war the Union was on the verge of controlling the Mississippi River and splitting the south in two so Russia is woefully behind in progress. Also Russia has been fully committed for 2 years now and net the two victories in Bakhmut and Avdiivka at a massive cost and they’re currently losing equipment at a rate there mobilized MIC can’t keep up with so any argument that they can just attrition Ukraine to death because “well now they’re taking it seriously” is not backed by the facts

[Hindsight was 2020]

This page has 17 posts on it and 11 of them are jaichind.

He never responds to anything anyone else is saying in the thread, and nobody ever responds to him.  There's no contribution to the discourse.  It's just taking up space -- a lot of space.

I'm assuming 90% of the forum has him on ignore at this point.  Because it's just spam.  Every single day a flood of posts "Ukraine is doomed!  Soldiers are fleeing!  Europeans in shambles!  Russia's economy is booming!  War production is off the charts!"  and it's been like this for over a year now.

It makes it difficult to have a real discussion in this thread.

Why do the mods continue to allow this?

And in general, why do the mods allow megathreads like this one to be taken over by one guy just dumping his RSS feed every single day?  This is far from the first time this has happened.

Funny enough because he barley responds to anyone he never really explains how despite as you said his year long “Ukraine is doomed” spam dump that the front lines barley move? It’s kinda hard to reconcile his “Ukraine military is falling apart and Russia’s mic is booming” with the daily frontline reports of “Russia monke runs at small village in the Donbas and losses 25 tanks and armored vehicles for no gains”

This is incredibly misleading, I would ask you to find a single post where he says the Ukrainian army is collapsing or on the verge of collapse?

He has been pretty clear in multiple posts that he views this war, materially not morally, as similar to Union vs CSA.  In terms of relative demographic and industrial capacity that’s pretty close to spot on with the exception, of course, that Ukraine is not successfully blockaded and is receiving major material support from the West.  Still a nearly 1-4 demographic and 1-8 economic deficit will be very hard to overcome for Ukraine in the long term.  

These types of wars of attrition over the past few hundred years generally follow the pattern of the weaker yet pluckier side winning some major but not decisive victories prior to the stronger side mobilizing its full resources and eventually forcing the military collapse of the weaker side.  You could argue wars from Napoleonic to US Civil to WW 1/2 fitting that pattern.

Remains to be seen if that’s what happens here, political factors could get in the way,but certainly not an unreasonable expectation if Russia is fully committed to victory.

He posted a clickbait article literally titled “Ukraine are on verge of collapse” also comparing this to this civil war is ridiculous for several reason the most obvious being that the CSA didn’t have the whole of Europe backing them also by this point in the war the Union was on the verge of controlling the Mississippi River and splitting the south in two so Russia is woefully behind in progress. Also Russia has been fully committed for 2 years now and net the two victories in Bakhmut and Avdiivka at a massive cost and they’re currently losing equipment at a rate there mobilized MIC can’t keep up with so any argument that they can just attrition Ukraine to death because “well now they’re taking it seriously” is not backed by the facts

He posted an article from a major mainstream news source, quoting Ukrainian officers, about the possibility of Ukrainian lines collapsing if Russia actually manages to launch a major relatively combined arms offensive.  The threat is real precisely because of the major human/material constraints Ukraine is facing, though Russia also has to achieve something it hasn’t managed to do since at least the start of the war.

Ukraine has survived somewhat better than the CSA due to Western support but it’s still is in a precarious position with significant territorial losses.  Meanwhile Russia is only slowly mobilizing.  Most estimates are showing only 6-8% of GDP currently going up the military, less than the US in a much less intense war in Vietnam (granted that included a much more global footprint for the US).  RUSI estimates about 450k Russian combat troops in Ukraine up from under 200k in late 2022 and that figure is very likely to grow through 2024 along with overall military spending into 2025.

In comparison the Soviet Union averaged 15-20% of GDP toward defense and more than twice the population adjusted troop mobilization levels as Russia currently for the entire post war Soviet period and that was mostly during peacetime or fighting small wars like Afghanistan (never more than 80-100k troops deployed).  Russia still has a significant amount of mobilization potential but seems to be going slow and steady maybe to boil the internal resistance frog slowly as well.

I’m not saying Russia will certainly win but the result will depend on Ukraine being able to fully mobilize its human potential (something it hasn’t come close to doing yet either) and substantially increasing not stagnant or declining Western material support.  The war is still escalating in scale so resource inputs from the West/Ukraine will have to continue to rise.  Given those factors and Ukraine correspondingly much smaller room for error, I have to give Russia the better odds if it has the political will to escalate its involvement for several more years.

There are also plenty of reports that dismiss Russia having the offensive capacity to do something major offensively right now that by sheer coincidence completely slip by jaichind to post here, I wonder why 🙄

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1775961707648565581
😬

[Hindsight was 2020]

Firefighter breaks down as he learns his father was killed in Russian strike.

Good reminder that Woody and jaichind are amoral monsters for supporting this 😡

[Hindsight was 2020]

Firefighter breaks down as he learns his father was killed in Russian strike.

Good reminder that Woody and jaichind are amoral monsters for supporting this 😡

It is sickening to see conservatives outright support Putin. I lean against Ukraine aid, but we need to be clear that Putin is an awful person and should not be celebrated in any shape, way, or form.

“I hate Putin and don’t support him but I’m against doing the most obvious thing to oppose him” 10/10 logic

[Hindsight was 2020]

Also Zelensky request isn’t unreasonable considering a) Ukraine’s size and b) this is not immediate but going to be a 5+ year program

[Hindsight was 2020]

Also, Ukrainians have counterattacked and retook some of lost positions in the Avdiivka area

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Based

[Hindsight was 2020]

Confirmation on reporting that claimed the Biden administration wanted Ukraine to stop targeting Russian refineries:

"Asked why the Biden admin is discouraging Ukraine from striking Russian energy infrastructure, Secretary Austin acknowledges that admin has concerns about how it will affect global energy markets.

"Certainly, those attacks could have a knock on effect, in terms of the global energy situation," Austin says. "But quite frankly, I think Ukraine is better served and going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight.""

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1777708594395283812

Thanks to the GOP causing us to abandon Ukraine, the Biden Administration has no legs to stand on when it comes to restricting Ukraine on this

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1778157487637602730?s=12
Monke wave ends with typical monke wave results

[Hindsight was 2020]

UK firms set to manufacture weapons inside Ukraine to boost struggle against Russia

UK manufacturers are one step closer to producing their weapons in Ukraine, following the signing of an agreement between the two countries.

The UK-Ukraine deal came during Britain's largest trade mission to Ukraine, which saw 29 UK businesses travel to the country to find opportunities for co-operation in aid of the struggle against Russia……
Defence Procurement Minister James Cartlidge said: "This is the latest demonstration of the UK's unwavering commitment to Ukraine, as they continue to fight back against Putin's illegal invasion. This is now a war of industrial production and so it is key that we unleash the capability, capacity, ingenuity, and innovation of our respective industrial bases.

Sweet!
https://www.forces.net/ukraine/uk-firms-set-manufacture-weapons-inside-ukraine-boost-struggle-against-russia

[Hindsight was 2020]

UK firms set to manufacture weapons inside Ukraine to boost struggle against Russia

UK manufacturers are one step closer to producing their weapons in Ukraine, following the signing of an agreement between the two countries.

The UK-Ukraine deal came during Britain's largest trade mission to Ukraine, which saw 29 UK businesses travel to the country to find opportunities for co-operation in aid of the struggle against Russia……
Defence Procurement Minister James Cartlidge said: "This is the latest demonstration of the UK's unwavering commitment to Ukraine, as they continue to fight back against Putin's illegal invasion. This is now a war of industrial production and so it is key that we unleash the capability, capacity, ingenuity, and innovation of our respective industrial bases.

Sweet!
https://www.forces.net/ukraine/uk-firms-set-manufacture-weapons-inside-ukraine-boost-struggle-against-russia

This kind of stuff honestly cements the UK's status as the most pro-Ukraine Western nation.

Until the French army arrive….

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1778449552191672397
Really interesting development, I was wondering the source of the ammo the Czech found

[Hindsight was 2020]

What does the population pyramid for Russia look like right now?

I'm a little disappointed we haven't seen more separatist fervor.  I would think people from, you know, Zabaykalsky, wouldn't be too thrilled about having their young working-age men drafted by Putin to go die on a battlefield 3,500 miles away in the name of protecting the ethnic eastern slavic peoples of Kherson from having to continue living under Ukrainian rule rather than Russian rule.

Tbh something I got completely wrong in the beginning of the war was the tolerance level for high casualties the Russian population wouldn’t have. After being able to interact with actual Ukrainians on the ground and getting more local perspectives it’s seems fair to Russian population is closer to Nazi German levels complicit in this atrocity and Putin’s hatred of the Ukrainian ethnic identity and resentments over the loss of the Soviet empire is very widespread amongst the population

[Hindsight was 2020]

"Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi says Russia set a goal of capturing Chasiv Yar by 9 May ("Victory Day" in Russia), in line with the future targets of reaching Kramatorks agglomeration (where Ukrainian Eastern HQ is located).

Full message:

"I worked in another, very important and dangerous direction.

The enemy is also concentrating efforts to break through our defenses west of Bakhmut, to reach the Siverskyi Donets - Donbas canal, capture the settlement of Chasiv Yar, and create conditions for further advance to the Kramatorsk agglomeration.

The implementation of the enemy's plans is hindered by the heroic defense of our brigades, which literally dug into the ground, holding back the enemy's daily attacks. Using numerical superiority and various motivational factors, including shootings [of their own], separate groups of enemy infantry reached the "Noviy" district, but were destroyed by FPV-kamikaze strikes and artillery fire.

At the same time, the threat remains relevant, taking into account the fact that the higher Russian military leadership has set the task for its troops to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9.

In order to respond adequately to the actions of the enemy and strengthen the defense of our troops in this direction, measures were taken to significantly strengthen the brigades with ammunition, drones, and EW devices.

The main conclusion from the two-day work at the front is the need to improve the quality of training, including the moral and psychological component, to increase the number of high-tech unmanned systems of various purposes with trained operators, to improve the quality of conducting asymmetric operations in order to reduce the combat potential of the enemy.

We continue to carry out organisational activities with an emphasis on increasing the efficiency of management, eliminating duplication, directing freed resources to support combat units and units.

The main task of these measures is to increase the fighting capacity of our troops, save the lives of our soldiers, disrupt the enemy's plans, and ensure the preparation of reserves.

The fight continues!
Glory to Ukraine!"

https://t.me/osirskiy/652"


https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1779426768845185334

It’s really amazing they pick these dumb reasons for deadlines that end up causing them to monke wave tactics

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine hit a base in Crimea 😗
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1779882321291653188

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4595993-speaker-johnson-unveils-plan-for-ukraine-israel-at-closed-door-gop-meeting/

"Speaker Johnson unveils plan for Ukraine, Israel at closed-door GOP meeting"

Looks like some variation of the Ukraine aid bill will get passed in the House.

If it does pass I wonder how much can be due to the Iranian attack forcing the Israel aid bill which Biden said he will only sign with Ukraine.

Played a role and apparently another thing is that the Ukrainian evangelical community been lobbying Johnson personally recently about the persecution they’re facing in the occupied territories because all these idiots who buy into Putin’s whole “last white hope of Christian nationalism” gimmick didn’t realize this brand of “Christian nationalism” had a struck Russian Orthodox identity to it
https://www.christianitytoday.com/news/2024/april/ukraine-christians-mike-johnson-us-speaker-southern-baptist.html

[Hindsight was 2020]

Russian is still nowhere near capturing  Kupyansk (something jaichind couldn’t stop posting was gonna happen 2 months ago) but will somehow take Kharkiv soon when after they couldn’t do it during the first stages when they had Ukraine not ready for it. Yeah. Okay. Sure.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1780941989673857348
Man why couldn’t we give Ukraine atacms back in late 22-early23 could of help with the CO

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine is finally getting aid, shot down a Tu-22M and did this in Novomykhailivka. Nice 😎
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1781223014278877458?s=12
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1781332809061142915?s=12