2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Hindsight was 2020]

Another way to look at Florida. Democrats at the same getting their best voters to the polls, but also doing much better at getting infrequent voters out.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1319930380200366081?s=21

That’s not reassuring data tbh

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320035870838325250
Ok this is bad. This is supposed to be souls to the polls weekend time

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320035870838325250
Ok this is bad. This is supposed to be souls to the polls weekend time

Their isn’t church on Saturday.

I’m speaking in general that the weekend is supposed to be the big turnout time for Dems these are bad numbers and VBM isn’t great either

[Hindsight was 2020]

Another way to look at Florida. Democrats at the same getting their best voters to the polls, but also doing much better at getting infrequent voters out.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1319930380200366081?s=21

That’s not reassuring data tbh

Not reassuring that they are getting more infrequent voters out, in addition to their super voters?

Not reassuring that the GOP has so much more reliable vote out left for ED

[Hindsight was 2020]

Another way to look at Florida. Democrats at the same getting their best voters to the polls, but also doing much better at getting infrequent voters out.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1319930380200366081?s=21

That’s not reassuring data tbh

Not reassuring that they are getting more infrequent voters out, in addition to their super voters?

Not reassuring that the GOP has so much more reliable vote out left for ED

There is like a 90% chance that Republicans are just cannibalizing their election day vote, exactly as Dems have done in the past. Y'all are ridiculous.

But that’s not what the tweet said. Reps still have a lot more 4/4 votes left compared to Dems

[Hindsight was 2020]

To take some red avatars off the ledge in FLA:

From St. Pete Polls -

We continue to poll down ballot races individually to give us a better sense of the statewide.

Trump is down in our polls by so much in Pinellas and Sarasota and Seminole, I want to know where he is picking up votes.

At this point you just gotta assume that NPA is breaking really heavy for Biden for the consistent polling about FL lining up with the numbers

[Hindsight was 2020]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

🤔🤔🤔

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/1320142364044906496?s=21

If this is the case then Biden is going to LOSE BOTH. Historically Florida is at least ~5% to the left of Georgia.  Florida was won by the democrats in 2008 and 2012. Georgia when that goes democratic that will be huge and Michigan 2016 like!

Obama is in Florida right now. Biden going to Georgia doesn’t mean he’s triaged on Florida good grief

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not encouraging
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320166639523057665
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320168019159646209

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not encouraging
(Florida tweets)

lol right on schedule

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

The guy has been on top of this Florida stuff as good as anyone so if he is saying it’s panic time then it’s not a good sign

[Hindsight was 2020]

Does anyone remember Election Day in 2017 when Virginia politicos were saying Northam was up *so much* in the early morning, and then by noon it got really close and could go any way, and everyone was freaking out?

Then Northam won by almost 10 points?

This next week is going to feel like an extended version of that freak out.

Remember? I was there. I was there when Limoliberal had his infamous “rain in NoVa” post

[Hindsight was 2020]

The thing I will say about freakouts is that sometimes people should pay attention.  A few people, not just me, were worried about low turnout in Philly in 2016 and a public transit strike going on there t the time.  Everyone on the board thought the idea of Pennsylvania going to Trump was ridiculous, and here we are.  

The FL thing is ridiculous though.  Everyone should just focus on the Dem turnout and not the GOP turnout.  GOP always turns out.  But Dems are turning out too and that's all they need.  I feel like we keep saying this and people keep freaking out about the horserace anyways.

But what if the polls are right and dem turnout crashes on ED due to Covid fears?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320201271392018432

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320201271392018432

And?

And it’s not a good sign that unless Dems right this ship they’ll have a smaller EV % gap then they did in 2016

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320201271392018432

And?

And it’s not a good sign that unless Dems right this ship they’ll have a smaller EV % gap then they did in 2016

Are you just gonna ignore the 20.7% of NPA voters that don't seem to be overwhelmingly breaking to Trump this year?

No. It’s the one thing keeping me slightly optimistic but I don’t wanna just assume that they just break heavy and then get burned

[Hindsight was 2020]

So great polling data to help ease the concerns of doomers (and myself a bit) about FL EV. Biden has won people 61-37 while people planning on voting on ED are only 60/40 pro-Trump showing Biden is likely killing it with NPA and that ED isn’t going to be so overwhelmingly pro-Trump
https://mobile.twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1320372061873885190

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yougov has the FL early vote breakdown as follows:

FL:
 Dem:Biden 99-1
 Rep:Trump 87-12
 Ind:Biden 56-40


That's not possible.
Plus, they have 45% of people already voted and we know that's not true.

You know what this looks like to me? As evidence of a huge non-response bias effect.
I don’t like numbers that don’t reinforce my biases so I’ll call them fake

FIFY

[Hindsight was 2020]

I thought the talking point was a 600k lead in feral after EV ended?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Florida Democratic turnout now at 53.2% of registered Democrats.

So they have all but hit there 2016 EV registration today with a week to go. 👍

[Hindsight was 2020]

Florida Democratic turnout now at 53.2% of registered Democrats.

So they have all but hit there 2016 EV registration today with a week to go. 👍

Yeah.  If they can continue at their ~3% a day pace that would be utterly remarkable. 

Honestly it comes down to if ED turnout is severely pro-Trump but I’m having my doubts that it is going to be as lopsided as cw has it right now

[Hindsight was 2020]

FLORIDA

Votes Cast:
Democratic: 3,083,486  (+169,291)
Republican: 2,914,195
NPA/Other: 1,676,716

Total: 7,674,397

Registered voters who have NOT voted yet:
NPA/Other: 2,292,887
Republican: 2,254,817 (+35,049)
Democratic: 2,219,768

Total: 6,767,472

Lining up with a lot of the polls showing that ED is going to be as lopsided as people thought

[Hindsight was 2020]

Texas about to be ground zero for disenfranchisement:

Mark Joseph Stern
@mjs_DC
·
15m
Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting. They drew Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan Republican judges in the entire federal judiciary. This is alarming.

Republicans hate America

[Hindsight was 2020]

How can Republicans even try to justify this? This is just blatantly evil and anti-democracy.

BuT WE’rE A repUbLIc nOt A deMOCRAcy!

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looks like this one is over. The hubris of this campaign, not abandoning Florida a week ago when it was clear what was happening.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1322644765624672256

Will you stop jfc. Time and time again it has been explained that all democrats need to do to win is not let the Reps get a clear reg edge to win which is what they are doing. Unless only 12% of Dems show up on ED they are right were they need to be

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dem early voting lead is back over 100k in Florida.

Let’s go!

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looks like TX is gone. FL will be a heavy lift too.
https://twitter.com/snowmanomics/status/1323329093136506882?s=21

remember these are internals and the biden campaign does intentionally try to make things coser than they actually are to avoid complacency.Lastly, the ED vote might not be heavily republican as people thought and there will still be alot of D election votes such as ethnic minorities, students, and lower propensity dems. There will also be lower republican voters but the pool of potential voters is smaller than previously thought

Also these polls are deliberately leaving out indies and is just looking at straight D v R